Mocknroll's picks

[Mocknroll]

I was keeping record of my picks in another thread, but the AUS / USA line conversion is getting too complicated, so I am going to simplify things for my own sake, as well as anyone else that might be interested.

I will be posting my strongest pick of the day.
I will not be posting units or amounts wagered.
The ideas is to purely keep track of my record.
Each pick will be an ATS pick unless stated otherwise.


Let's see how we go.

[Mocknroll]

First pick...

PHI @ CHA - PHI -6.5 1H

I have been following these types of plays closely, and they are without a doubt responsible for at least 50% of my current bankroll. They tend to be a go-ahead for me if the situation is right. Normally will pound if it is a +.650 team vs a -.350 team. I will take road record into account as well if the favorite is on the road, and will also look at stats and situations to see if the 1H has more value than the full-time spread.

In this case Philly's road record is +.500, and they have performed well at the half against struggling teams. I would expect Philly to go hard early, and they may take their foot off the pedal and run some training drills in the 2H, which is why I am taking them 1H.

But the biggest factor in this matchup is the fact that Philly's opponent is the CHARLOTTE BOBCATS. Fading CHA has made me a lot of money in the past few weeks, and I am going to continue to fade them until they prove me wrong. Augustin and Henderson are still out for CHA, and I can't see their performance here being any better than that against CHI or LAC.

Call me square, but this seems to me to be the best play of the day.

[Mocknroll]

PHI @ CHA - PHI -6.5 1H

1-0

[Mocknroll]

sac @ chi - chi -7 1h

[Mocknroll]

SAC @ CHI - CHI -7 1H

1-1

Ouch. 3 pointer in the last 2 secs for SAC killed me. That is the nature of 1H betting. On to another day.

[Mocknroll]

okc @ hou - okc -3

[Mocknroll]

OKC @ HOU - OKC -3

1-2

[Mocknroll]

Not a great start.

Had a few days off while I try and pull it back betting on my native AFL.

Jumping on this one early before the line moves.

LAL @ PHX - LAL -2.5

Basically taking this game because I cannot see Kobe being so public about hating the Suns, owning them at home and then not showing up @ PHX. I don't particularly like Kobe, but I like money. Perhaps I might like Kobe a little more after this game. Also, there is going to be a lot of attention on other big games on the card tonight that this one might just slip under the radar.