m11chen's bets thread

m11chen · 02-10-12, 12:49 AM

Fri Feb 10

Wolves +2: 1 unit
I'll take the Wolves as home dogs against a Dallas team that they've crushed twice already. Just a bad match up for Dallas, especially with Love coming back hungry.

m11chen · 02-10-12, 08:56 AM

Hawks/Magic Under 182.5: 1 unit
Been liking the under on the Hawks a lot lately. They grind out defensive wins, or go cold completely.

Bucks/Cavs Over 192.5: 1 unit
Bucks playing up-tempo since Bogut went down. Expect both teams to go up and down the floor in this one.

m11chen · 02-10-12, 07:16 PM

Nets +3: 1 unit
Revenge for that awful loss. I think D-Will steps up big this game.

Blazers -7: 1 unit
They need this win desperately and will look to abuse NOH, even though they're on the road.

ML Parlay (0.5 units to win 3.2 units): Heat, Bulls, Blazers (99% locks IMO), Clippers, Pacers
ML Parlay (0.5 units to win 1.95 units): Clippers, Pacers
Clippers +3.5: 0.5 units
Pacers +1.5: 0.5 units
Both teams that I like a lot against teams that are pretenders (Memphis), or missing crucial size (Hawes out).

Hawks +5: 1 unit
Magic have a let down game after a big win over the Heat.

Celtics -4: 1 unit
Raptors 1Q +1: 1 unit
I think the Raptors come out somewhat strong feeding off the Celtics OT fatigue yesterday. Boston quickly dominates, and pulls away with the game though, as the Raptors almost always get raped against the C's.

m11chen · 02-10-12, 07:49 PM

Jeremy Lin Over 26.5 Points+Assist (-115): 1 unit
D'Antoni said it himself, he's gonna ride him like secretariat. Lin will put up numbers running circles around the artist formerly known as Derek Fisher.

m11chen · 02-10-12, 07:58 PM

Knicks +4.5: 1 unit
I live in NYC, and Linsanity is real. People are talking about this more than the Giants winning the Superbowl. MSG is going to be completely pumped for this. Knicks respond by playing a competitive game tonight. There's not enough track to cap this statistically, as Lin's only been starting for a couple of games, but external factors all point to the Knicks.

m11chen · 02-10-12, 08:18 PM

Hawks/Magic 2H Under 89.5: 1 unit

m11chen · 02-10-12, 08:28 PM

Raptors/Celtic 2H Under 88: 1 unit

m11chen · 02-10-12, 10:55 PM

YTD Record: 33-27 (55%)
YTD Total: +5.95 units

Sigh, positive day (+2.55 units), but could have been a HUGE day. Atl/Orl OT moosed my 2H under bet that was cruising to an easy win. And Indiana blew a game against a mediocre team that killed a monstrous parlay. Would have been almost a +10 unit day if that parlay hit.

I considered hedging the Indy game, but Fvcking Portland was getting killed at the half, and I couldn't pull the trigger. Damn I hate that team.

Still a positive day, but left a lot on the table considering how great today's card was.

m11chen · 02-11-12, 12:03 AM

Utah 2H -0.5 (-115): 1 unit
May look to hedge via live betting as the night goes on. This seems like a pretty safe play, as the Jazz should at least make a run at some point.

m11chen · 02-11-12, 12:31 AM

Sat Feb 11
Early lock in

Magic/Bucks Over 188.5: 1 unit
Continue riding the Bucks over train. This team gets up and down the floor since Bogut's injury. Orlando will shoot plenty of 3's, and the ones they don't make, the Bucks will run off the long rebounds.

m11chen · 02-11-12, 01:02 AM

YTD Record: 33-28
YTD Total: +4.80 units

Should have known better than to think Utah could hang with OKC down the stretch.

Anus Kanter can DIAF.

m11chen · 02-11-12, 04:01 PM

Jeremy Lin +6.5: 1 unit
Self-explanatory. This is like Tebow when he won 7 in a row, ride it hard until opposing teams figure out how to stop it.

Philly -7: 1 unit
Cavs coming off a tough OT loss, and could be without their heart and soul, Varejao. Expect Philly to bounce back.

Magic -2: 1 unit
Bucks are small inside, expect Howard to dominate. Jennings is the motor that makes the Bucks go, and he's at his best slashing into the paint. Won't be many easy buckets there with Howard around.

Clippers 1H -6: 1 unit
Fading Bobcats, but don't want to risk the backdoor cover. Clippers pull away early.

Kings -2.5: 1 unit
Kings have covered 7 games in a row. Since Thornton's come back, this team is a whole different animal. They no longer need to have Jimmer logging important minutes. Boogie Cousins is an absolute force inside, almost like a young Derrick Coleman.

m11chen · 02-11-12, 04:06 PM

Blazers/Mavs Under 187: 1 unit

m11chen · 02-11-12, 04:08 PM

Ugh, son of a. BetOnline had Boogie Cousins O/U 11.5 points. Tried to lock the over in for 3 units, but they pulled it off in the 2 seconds I was locking in. Now it's at 16.5

That would have been the lock of the month.

m11chen · 02-12-12, 10:22 AM

YTD Record: 37-30
YTD Total: +6.60 units

Dallas/Portland 2OT hosed me hard. So did missing out on that Boogie Cousins prop. Still a positive day climbing up though.

m11chen · 02-12-12, 03:33 PM

Rajon Rondo Over 21 Points+Assists (-105): 1 unit
Bulls -1: 1 unit
Bulls/Celtics Over 1H 86.5: 1 unit

m11chen · 02-12-12, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by m11chen

Rajon Rondo Over 21 Points+Assists (-105): 1 unit
Bulls -1: 1 unit
Bulls/Celtics Over 1H 86.5: 1 unit

LOL, the Rondo prop cashes at half time!!!

m11chen · 02-12-12, 05:22 PM

Jazz +6.5: 1 unit
Warriors/Rockets 1H Over 102: 1 unit

m11chen · 02-13-12, 08:46 AM

YTD Record: 40-32
YTD Total: +7.40 units

Mon Feb 13
76ers 1H -6.5 (-115): 1 unit
Fade Bobcats 1H against one of the best defensive teams. Avoid the backdoor cover.

Heat 1H -3.5: 1 unit
If they don't storm out of the gates against this Bucks team that beat them twice already, then they have some serious problems. Thinking hard about taking them full game as well. Mega-revenge factor.

Clippers +4: 1 unit
Clippers can hang with anyone, and they've figured out how to play on the road with CP3 at the helm. This will be a tight game, so I'll take the 4 points. In CP3 we trust.

Magic/Wolves Over 189: 1 unit
Expect Magic 3's and Wolves transition off those rebounds. Kind of a repeat of the Magic/Bucks game that went over recently.

m11chen · 02-13-12, 07:37 PM

Heat -6: 1 unit
Adding to the full game as well. Looking for Miami to make a statement here. Last time they had a huge halftime lead and lost, I don't think they take the foot off the pedal this time.

Jazz -5: 1 unit
Hornets have so many injuries. Look for jazz to build off that win over Memphis.

Dirk over 22 points: 1 unit
Dirk is on a tear and neither Blake nor DJ can defend him. Dallas will need his scoring tonight.

Nash over 26 points + assists: 1 unit
Nash will abuse the 2 worst defensive guards in the game. Game will be up tempo. Nash went comfortably over this in all 4 gsw meetings last year.

m11chen · 02-14-12, 12:54 AM

YTD Record: 44-34-2
YTD Total: +9.30 units

BRUTAL luck on the prop bets. Nash only takes 6 shots for some reason, even though GS is atrocious defending guards. Dirk inexplicably misses 4 FTs and shoots 33% from the field to push.

Still a nice day overall, climbing further into the positive.

56.4% since I started keeping track.

m11chen · 02-14-12, 09:24 AM

Feb 14 Valentine's Day Special

Big card tonight:

Heat/Pacers Under 198.5: 2 units
Really like this play. Last time the Pacers played the Heat, they got run out of the building. They'll slow the pace down to a crawl here and run their pick and rolls for West and Granger isos.

Suns +9: 2 units
Nuggets without Mozgov, Gallo, AND Nene. They shouldn't be a 9 point fav after losing 5 of 6. They won that Pacer game by forcing 20 turnovers. Nash won't make that many mistakes and will be looking to abuse their bigs inside.

Grizzlies -3: 1 unit
They bounce back hard after home losses and the Jazz just embarrased them. The Rockets aren't the same on the road as they are at home. AND trick or treat Tony will shut down K-Mart easily, taking the Rockets bets shooter out of the game. Rockets being as hot as they are keeps this as a 1 unit play.

Lin -5: 1 unit
Riding the Lin Train until the wheels fall off. Wish I got this at -4 last night. Amare has a HUGE game coming back after the tragedy of his brother, re-energized as the best pick 'n roll finisher in the game.

Hawks +5.5: 1 unit
Fade the Lakers. Hawks are good defensively in the paint. Lakers have NO 3-point threats, so the Hawks will pack the paint to neutralize the two 7-footers.

Suns/Nuggets Under 205.5: 1 unit
Hawks/Lakers Under 178: 1 unit

m11chen · 02-14-12, 11:50 AM

Adding

Utah +12: 1.5 units
I was hoping the line would move the other way with the Thunder being so popular, but the line is going down
Might lay the other 0.5 units if the line goes back up. Fully expect OKC to win but don't think it will be by DD.

m11chen · 02-15-12, 07:37 PM

YTD Record: 48-38-2
YTD Total: +8.40 units

Wed Feb 15
Bucks/Hornets Over 185.5: 1 unit

m11chen · 02-15-12, 08:13 PM

Thunder -3 (-105): 3 units
Hawks -1.5 (-105): 2 units
Thunder/Rockets Over 201: 1 unit
Wolves 1H -6 (-115): 1 unit
Nuggets/Mavs Under 197: 1 unit
Portland/GS 1H Over 97: 1 unit

Didn't get to put Lin -whatever in before the tip. Knicks up 8 already.

m11chen · 02-15-12, 11:28 PM

Ugh... Thunder. They need to get another wing player, so they can bench that useless sac of crap Perkins. Or at least just play Collison in crunch time.

GSW -4 2H: 1 unit

m11chen · 02-16-12, 12:01 AM

Wizards/Clippers 2H Over 99: 1 unit
Wizards +7 (-105): 1 unit

m11chen · 02-16-12, 08:05 AM

YTD Record: 51-44-2
YTD Total: +3.75 units

m11chen · 02-17-12, 08:46 AM

76ers -2.5: 3 units
Grizzlies -3.5: 2 units
Cavs +10: 2 units
Mavs/76ers Under 181: 2 units
Magic -7.5: 1 unit
Kings +2.5: 1 unit

m11chen · 02-17-12, 08:53 AM

Waiting on Lakers public money to flood in before betting the Suns...

m11chen · 02-17-12, 07:58 PM

Adding:
Lin -9.5: 1 unit
Wolves +5: 1 unit
OKC -9.5: 1 unit
ML Parlay: 76ers, Heat, OKC, Grizz, Lin (1 unit for 3.2 units)

m11chen · 02-17-12, 08:01 PM

Lin over 9.5 assists +110: 1 unit