Standard odds for 2 teamer +4 points: -110
Data: Teams miss covering by a half point about 2% of the time. Same for teams not covering by a full point, 1.5, etc.
Need each leg of teaser to hit at least 72% of the time to break even.
Adding 4 points to a team's spread gives the dog a 50% + (8*2)% = 66% chance of covering. Fair odds on such teasers closer to +130.
Well below the 72% needed for bet to be +EV
Take Nets -4.5 game tonight as an example. Tease it down to -0.5 and Pinn gives fair odds of -186 on that bet with a win % of 64.5%. Not even close to 72%.
Choose a teaser that crosses 0 and the percentage chance of that leg covering falls 2%.
If you must do it (jjgold), go for games with low totals... ahem.. not NBA.
You're welcome
mathy
Data: Teams miss covering by a half point about 2% of the time. Same for teams not covering by a full point, 1.5, etc.
Need each leg of teaser to hit at least 72% of the time to break even.
Adding 4 points to a team's spread gives the dog a 50% + (8*2)% = 66% chance of covering. Fair odds on such teasers closer to +130.
Well below the 72% needed for bet to be +EV
Take Nets -4.5 game tonight as an example. Tease it down to -0.5 and Pinn gives fair odds of -186 on that bet with a win % of 64.5%. Not even close to 72%.
Choose a teaser that crosses 0 and the percentage chance of that leg covering falls 2%.
If you must do it (jjgold), go for games with low totals... ahem.. not NBA.
You're welcome
mathy