I've been posting all my NBA plays in this thread at SBR:
I'm going to use that thread for any full game side/total plays but this thread for 2h totals only.
My record in that thread for second half totals is 6-3 (+2.7) and I'm going to add to that whenever I post in this thread.
I thought this would be better as it's just 2h total plays and it'll be easier to track and for discussion.
Here's what I'm doing and an example of what I'm looking for in a 2H Under play.
I'm using projected pace vs actual pace of the game, then factoring in shooting pct, and line value.
For an under play. I'm looking for these three things:
1. Pace of game must be slower than projected.
2. Combined FG% of both teams are better than expected. (Meaning a regression towards the mean in the 2h)
3. Line Value on 2h total. (Actual total vs a projected total based on closing line and then adjusted based on the 1h total points)
I'm mainly going to post the plays that my model "suggests" a play. (All 3 of the criteria above are met)
There are other opportunities for plays even if only a couple of the different variables are met. I'm starting to feel more comfortable with those situations and I'll post those plays as well.
I'm going to use that thread for any full game side/total plays but this thread for 2h totals only.
My record in that thread for second half totals is 6-3 (+2.7) and I'm going to add to that whenever I post in this thread.
I thought this would be better as it's just 2h total plays and it'll be easier to track and for discussion.
Here's what I'm doing and an example of what I'm looking for in a 2H Under play.
I'm using projected pace vs actual pace of the game, then factoring in shooting pct, and line value.
For an under play. I'm looking for these three things:
1. Pace of game must be slower than projected.
2. Combined FG% of both teams are better than expected. (Meaning a regression towards the mean in the 2h)
3. Line Value on 2h total. (Actual total vs a projected total based on closing line and then adjusted based on the 1h total points)
I'm mainly going to post the plays that my model "suggests" a play. (All 3 of the criteria above are met)
There are other opportunities for plays even if only a couple of the different variables are met. I'm starting to feel more comfortable with those situations and I'll post those plays as well.
