Rabid's vicious NBA system - tracking thread

[RabidGoat]

Tis the season (although a bit delayed) for my favorite sport to tip-off!

A good friend and I spent most of last year creating an NBA system which helps us predict team totals which we then use to compare to the line for that game. We got it to hit about 65% last year and I've made some adjustments for this year's shortened season. I'm not going to be placing actual bets all these plays will be done on the SBR book. It is my hope that as time progresses I'll be able to adjust the formula as needed and get it hitting up around 70% consistently.

So buckle your seatbelts and hold on this should be interesting.

[RabidGoat]

All bets are single unit bets for now...

12/28/11

WAS @ ATL - ATL -8.5
BOS @ NOH - BOS -4
OKC @ MEM - OKC pk
LAC @ SAS - OVER 197
UTA @ DEN - DEN -11
NYK @ GSW - UNDER 206

[merikson]

I'm bookmarking this thread.

[RabidGoat]

I'm bookmarking this thread.

We can blow this thread up with our mindless babble!

One thing I should add is that the NYK @ GSW game I have it coming out around 200 but I'm playing the under mostly because all trends as of late for these 2 teams are over trends and I'm fading the public. I'm still confident it will go under.

[merikson]

We can blow this thread up with our mindless babble!

One thing I should add is that the NYK @ GSW game I have it coming out around 200 but I'm playing the under mostly because all trends as of late for these 2 teams are over trends and I'm fading the public. I'm still confident it will go under.

I am interested to see how this game goes. I watched D'antoni's defenseless Suns rack up the points for years. I think he is trying to add more defense to his team than in the past though. All offense and trying to get shots up within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock teams have proven not to be a contenders in the playoffs.

[RabidGoat]

I am interested to see how this game goes. I watched D'antoni's defenseless Suns rack up the points for years. I think he is trying to add more defense to his team than in the past though. All offense and trying to get shots up within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock teams have proven not to be a contenders in the playoffs.

I agree completely. The glaring weakness of the Knicks last year was their D. He is going to try and correct it this year and I think they will play a little slower tempo. So far tonight is looking pretty decent.. Of course I'll try to hide my excitement

[RabidGoat]

All bets are single unit bets for now...

12/28/11

WAS @ ATL - ATL -8.5
BOS @ NOH - BOS -4
OKC @ MEM - OKC pk
LAC @ SAS - OVER 197
UTA @ DEN - DEN -11
NYK @ GSW - UNDER 206

Spread: 3-1 : +1.9 units
Totals: 2-0 : +2.0 units
YTD: 5-1 : +3.9 units

5-1 not a bad start at all! Let's keep the momentum tomorrow... As a rule I don't bet on my favorite team so there will never be bets on the Chicago Bulls side I may still bet the over/unders in those games.

[BranGor]

pretty good

mark

[SiMON2g]

Nice start

[freshguy222]

will you post earlier from now on so we can tail?

[merikson]

Hell of a start!

[shift_knob]

Saw your locks last night, impressive. Subscribing!

[cubfan2121]

Out of curiosity
whats your system?

I prefer throwing darts myself

lol

nice job on the good start

[RabidGoat]

will you post earlier from now on so we can tail?

Yes I will do my best to post by 5:300 cst that's only because I work until 5 and I run the numbers throughout the day games that have lines up that start at 6cst I'll work on first obviously. It just so happens I had the afternoon off today.

Out of curiosity
whats your system?

I prefer throwing darts myself

lol

nice job on the good start

You use the dart throwing system too? Seems you already know mine then

[RabidGoat]

12/29/11

NJN @ ORL - UNDER 181
SAS @ HOU - UNDER 198 (If I were more confident in the systems consistency this would be a bigger play.)
DAL @ OKC - DAL +5.5
DEN @ POR - DEN +6 ( I wouldn't take it at +5.5 that's just my opinion)
NYK @ LAL - LAL -4

BOL to all tonight!

[merikson]

I'm all over these picks.

[RabidGoat]

I'm not sure if editing the prior post will bump this/ notify subscribers so this post is just to be safe.

NJN/ORL game looks like it will go under. I'd be worried if Orlando didn't have a 14 point lead. I liked this play a lot because the Magic had a huge advantage in the paint which meant NJ was going to have to take a lot of jump shots and that's not been great for them this year. Orlando was going to lead comfortably and have no reason to push the tempo which means they wouldn't be putting up a ton of points. That was my reasoning and my system gave me enough information to validate it.

[merikson]

That was a hell of a finish in OKC!

[RabidGoat]

That was a hell of a finish in OKC!

Oh I know just as I was calming down from that huge 3 by Carter.. Durant nailed that 3 from almost half court and he did it like it was a 17 ft jumper just smooth. I really thought that DAL was going to pull this one off. I could understand them not getting up for the first two games with all the championship hoopla carrying over from last year but at least they showed signs of life tonight.

That game put me at 3-0 so far tonight guaranteed a positive night

Icing on the cake - bulls are up at halftime and they've looked pretty damn good so far. D Rose has pretty much ran the game they need to stop the 3 though it could come back to haunt them.

[RabidGoat]

12/29/11

NJN @ ORL - UNDER 181
SAS @ HOU - UNDER 198 (If I were more confident in the systems consistency this would be a bigger play.)
DAL @ OKC - DAL +5.5
DEN @ POR - DEN +6 ( I wouldn't take it at +5.5 that's just my opinion)
NYK @ LAL - LAL -4
BOL to all tonight!

Spread: 5-2 : +2.8 units
Totals: 4-0 : +4.0 units
YTD: 9-2 : +6.8 units

4-1 last night another respectable evening with quite a few good games very entertaining! I'm going to try and go a solid week with just flat bets of 1 unit and if I'm able to maintain this sort of winning percentage I'll start ranking the plays 1-3 unit plays based off my confidence. Let's just worry first though about finishing out this week strong the rest will fall in place! Picks forthcoming later this afternoon.

[EasyPicks]

I don't know what system is, but it's presenting some solid numbers! Nice work

It will be hard to sustain just a high rate of success but for now it seems really promising.

Best of luck Rabid.

[RabidGoat]

I don't know what system is, but it's presenting some solid numbers! Nice work It will be hard to sustain just a high rate of success but for now it seems really promising. Best of luck Rabid.

The "system" as handicappers would call it I'm a programmer by day and so this doesn't fit any definition of a system as far as I'm concerned. Anyways what it evaluates is a teams performance over the past 5 games as far as fg %, possessions per quarter, points per possession, points off rebs and pts allowed. Theres other stuff but we can just call that the magic of it.

I completely agree maintaining a high rate of success will be hard and that's why I still work a day job =)

[RabidGoat]

12/30/11

ORL @ CHA - CHA +4.5
CLE @ IND - CLE +9.5
DET @ BOS - OVER 183
NJN @ ATL - OVER 177
MIA @ MIN - UNDER 210.5
PHX @ NOH - NOH -2 (Teasing this with the under might not be a bad play.)
TOR @ DAL - OVER 192
WAS @ MIL - OVER 186
PHI @ UTA - UTA +4

BOL to all tonight!

[DHB]

nicely done man.

[RabidGoat]

Added the 7 cst games and will be posting the rest shortly. Lost track of time rotting my mind on Xbox.

[RabidGoat]

Everything is up. I'm not betting on the Bulls game because I'm a fan, but I would lean towards the unders in that game. Clippers haven't played a D like the Bulls and the Bulls coming off a game last night aren't going to be as explosive offensively. I mean obviously they will win but I think it will be a lower scoring game.

[RabidGoat]

12/30/11

ORL @ CHA - CHA +4.5
CLE @ IND - CLE +9.5
DET @ BOS - OVER 183 (2pts off!)
NJN @ ATL - OVER 177
MIA @ MIN - UNDER 210.5
PHX @ NOH - NOH -2 (FG% 28.9 enough said)
TOR @ DAL - OVER 192 (7pts off! Dallas shot 28% from 3pt land)
WAS @ MIL - OVER 186 (3pts off!)
PHI @ UTA - UTA +4

BOL to all tonight!

tonight spread 2-2 = -.2units
tonight totals 2-3 = -1.3

-1.5 units tonight

Spread: 7-4 : +2.6 units
Totals: 6-3 : +2.7 units
YTD: 13-7 : +5.3 units

We all knew it was coming. More picks tomorrow.

[EasyPicks]

YTD 13-7 (u need to update the 9-2)

yeahh, those totals were rock solid at Half-time....and lost them! Amazing the WAS x MIL game...lol

Totals are burning a lot of people.

[RabidGoat]

The totals last night were as lobsided as I've seen so far this year 4-7 so if anyone had bet unders on all the games last night they'd be pretty happy.

I've done some additional research and am going to be making some changes to the formula. I'm just not feeling too motivated to work today so those changes won't go into effect until tomorrow or Monday. Apologies on not making a post for the early game... Was putting in the quality time with the gf

Picks forthcoming.

[RabidGoat]

12/31/11

IND @ DET - DET +2.5
IND @ DET - UNDER 181.5 (will explain why this is a play later)
ATL @ HOU - ATL pk
NYK @ SAC - UNDER 200
PHX @ OKC - UNDER 200.5
UTA @ SAS - OVER 195.5 (originally 193 but line moved while placing bet)
PHI @ GSW - GSW +2 (I like this play a lot and my numbers matched up )

BOL to all tonight!

[RabidGoat]

The play on the under in the IND/DET game is following a system that essentially says bet the under for the lowest total on the board as long as there is 4+ games and no injured starters in that particular game. The IND/DET game qualifies.

The reason I like the GSW game is for two reasons 1. PHI is 1-4 ATS in the second game of a b2b 2. My "system" has GSW as a 4 point favorite. I know I know Ellis is gone tonight for his grandmother's funeral but, I'm still confident that the Warriors new defensive mentality will make up for the lack of offense that Ellis provides them.

Lets get some moneys tonight fellas! Oh and probably should get hammered too since it's the new year and all!

[merikson]

I'm tailing as usual.

[RabidGoat]

I'm real excited about some of the new additions I'll be making to the formula. I'm in the process of setting up a SQL data base for these picks and then I'll add in the actual results to another databased so I can look for trends in the ones I lose. The DET/IND under wasn't one of my systems plays but it was a play in another system that I'm going to start doing also so I'm going to track those separately. The max number of plays that system can produce is 2 per day one over one under so it shouldn't be too much hassle to run two systems and track them.

[merikson]

I'm real excited about some of the new additions I'll be making to the formula. I'm in the process of setting up a SQL data base for these picks and then I'll add in the actual results to another databased so I can look for trends in the ones I lose. The DET/IND under wasn't one of my systems plays but it was a play in another system that I'm going to start doing also so I'm going to track those separately. The max number of plays that system can produce is 2 per day one over one under so it shouldn't be too much hassle to run two systems and track them.

I'm looking forward to seeing what's to come. Have a happy new year!

[EasyPicks]

rough night yesterday!

wish u luck for 2012