Griz over 39.5 wins

demens · 12-24-11, 05:32 PM

Good luck with that. I took Nuggest under 38.5 so i'm rooting for Grizz and Blazers to do well.

Check out how the books have the NBA win totals rated (5dimes), the 1st number is what they'd have to win if it was a normal 82 game season.

<table frame="VOID" rules="NONE" border="0" cellspacing="0" cols="2"><colgroup><col width="91"><col width="330"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td width="91" align="CENTER" height="22">61</td><td width="330" align="LEFT">21009 Oklahoma City season wins over 48½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">53</td><td align="LEFT">21011 Dallas Mavericks season wins over 42½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">52</td><td align="LEFT">21059 LA Clippers season wins over 41½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">52</td><td align="LEFT">21007 San Antonio Spurs season wins over 41½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">51</td><td align="LEFT">21003 LA Lakers season wins over 40½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">49</td><td align="LEFT">21027 Denver Nuggets season wins over 38½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">47</td><td align="LEFT">21021 Memphis Grizzlies season wins over 37½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">46</td><td align="LEFT">21019 Portland Blazers season wins over 36½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">41</td><td align="LEFT">21025 Houston Rockets season wins over 32½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">36</td><td align="LEFT">21037 Golden State season wins over 28½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">35</td><td align="LEFT">21033 Utah Jazz season wins over 27½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">33</td><td align="LEFT">21029 Phoenix Suns season wins over 26½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">32</td><td align="LEFT">21053 Minnesota T-Wolves season wins over 25½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">32</td><td align="LEFT">21031 New Orleans season wins over 25½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">26</td><td align="LEFT">21051 Sacramento Kings season wins over 20½</td></tr></tbody> </table>

<table frame="VOID" rules="NONE" border="0" cellspacing="0" cols="2"><colgroup><col width="96"><col width="332"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td width="96" align="CENTER" height="22">64</td><td width="332" align="LEFT">21001 Miami Heat season wins over 50½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">60</td><td align="LEFT">21005 Chicago Bulls season wins over 47½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">50</td><td align="LEFT">21017 New York Knicks season wins over 39½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">49</td><td align="LEFT">21013 Boston Celtics season wins over 38½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">47</td><td align="LEFT">21039 Indiana Pacers season wins over 37½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">46</td><td align="LEFT">21015 Orlando Magic season wins over 36½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">46</td><td align="LEFT">21043 Philadelphia 76ers season wins over 36½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">45</td><td align="LEFT">21023 Atlanta Hawks season wins over 35½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">42</td><td align="LEFT">21045 Milwaukee Bucks season wins over 33½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">32</td><td align="LEFT">21035 New Jersey Nets season wins over 25½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">29</td><td align="LEFT">21057 Detroit Pistons season wins over 23½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">27</td><td align="LEFT">21047 Washington Wizards season wins over 21½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">22</td><td align="LEFT">21055 Toronto Raptors season wins over 17½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">21</td><td align="LEFT">21041 Charlotte Bobcats season wins over 16½</td></tr><tr><td align="CENTER" height="22">21</td><td align="LEFT">21049 Cleveland Cavs season wins over 16½</td></tr></tbody> </table>

demens · 12-24-11, 05:36 PM

I think its interesting they have Lakers as favs to win the division yet Clips have a higher o/u win total. Btw Clips are hella overrated imo, thinking about playing that under too.

Le_Donk · 12-24-11, 07:52 PM

hey demens from what book are those lines ?
on the first look, i like the milwaukee and portland over. sacramento over also looks tempting
not sure about your denver bet, hollinger has them at 43 wins ( nr 2 seed in the west ). his explanation is basically that they have the most depth (12 man rotation) and if they win like ~25 games at home this season, they still can have a losing record on the road and end up around ~40 wins

demens · 12-24-11, 09:39 PM

Originally posted by Le_Donk

hey demens from what book are those lines ?
on the first look, i like the milwaukee and portland over. sacramento over also looks tempting
not sure about your denver bet, hollinger has them at 43 wins ( nr 2 seed in the west ). his explanation is basically that they have the most depth (12 man rotation) and if they win like ~25 games at home this season, they still can have a losing record on the road and end up around ~40 wins

The lines are from bovada aka bodog.

Thats interesting. As a basketball fan i always despised Holinger and considered him clueless. But as a gambler i do place value on his mathematical analysis. So i'm not happy to hear him rate the Nuggets this highly. However, i dont see what he is basing his conclusions on. Denver lost some very important players from last years roster. Few guys are stuck in China or hurt. JR Smith is injured but even when healthy, i believe he is under a no buy out contract in China. Wilson Chandler is healthy but in the same boat contract wise. KMart is also in China. And Chinese league doesnt end till March if i recall correctly with the final in April (?) so these guys wont be back any time soon. Kmart was bought out but he is now a free agent and rumors saying he is going to NYK.

They did resign Nene and Aflalo. And traded younger Felton for Andre Mille, probably with the idea of committing to Ty Lawson. But one of the keys to Denvers resurgence last year was their depth and the interchangeability of their roster. Lawson/Felton, Chandler/Galo, Smith/Aflalo, it was like they had a quality player at every position for all 48 minutes of the game. Guys would be rested and fresh and at least some ONE would get a hot hand.

I think all that is gone this season with 4 of those not with the team anymore and just 1 old man MIller in return. So i see team like Portland, Memphi, etc being better then these Nuggets, thus i think they will be fighting for the 7th/8th seed, not winning close to 50 (in regular 82 game season) games.

Le_Donk · 12-24-11, 10:23 PM

you forgot about rudy fernandez, corey brewer, al harrington, chris andersen and two rookie first round draft picks
they have the deepest rotation in the league, combined with the altidute advantage they will likely have a very good home record.
i see them in front of memphis but after portland

7secondsOrLess · 12-25-11, 12:53 AM

minny and indy

demens · 12-25-11, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by Le_Donk

you forgot about rudy fernandez, corey brewer, al harrington, chris andersen and two rookie first round draft picks
they have the deepest rotation in the league, combined with the altidute advantage they will likely have a very good home record.
i see them in front of memphis but after portland

They had the deepest rotation before they lost 4 key players.

Rudy Fernadez has done nothing in his NBA career, Corey Brewer has done even less. The biggest name on that bench is Chris Andersen and he is nothing more then an energy guy. Having 2 mid/late 1st round picks doesn't mean depth to me, their rookies, who knows if they will even be in the rotation.