Dexter's 2011-2012 NBA

[ebbearsfb1]

Dex. : What does A2 mean? Thanks.

page 1

different auto bets

[Dexter]

Dex. : What does A2 mean? Thanks.

see post 1 of thread...the books have clearly adjusted for the lakers playing 3 games in a row. i expected to see lakers -7. not sure how the market will react to this game, but i took a shot and booked it now at 4.5 as i assume money will come in on utah considering the rare situation.

[Trivial]

Thanks ebb and dex. Appreciate it. Got it now after going to page 1. Have a great night.

[Dexter]

if those following the thread can also double check when there is an A1, A2 and A3 - please post it. I am doing this all by hand, and i have missed some in the past. Just printed out all the schedules and cross checking with SK's schedule (thanks SK).

[MrSink]

nice call with Nets
They made a really nice come back

[Dexter]

nice call with Nets
They made a really nice come back

thx mr. sink....good to see you again.

[demens]

So LAL is the 1st to play a b2b2b. Started out 0-2. Hosting Utah who are not exactly a great team. Also something to consider is their b2b2b was LA, Sacramento, LA. Not THAT that.

Typically this should be -8 LA, maybe even -9 since its the Lakers. Looks like the books adjusting the line heavily for the b2b2b scenario like i was thinking. -6 opener quickly down to -4.5. Granted LA losing the 1st 2 games probably factored in as well.

So, you're fading them Dex?

[Dexter]

So LAL is the 1st to play a b2b2b. Started out 0-2. Hosting Utah who are not exactly a great team. Also something to consider is their b2b2b was LA, Sacramento, LA. Not THAT that.

Typically this should be -8 LA, maybe even -9 since its the Lakers. Looks like the books adjusting the line heavily for the b2b2b scenario like i was thinking. -6 opener quickly down to -4.5. Granted LA losing the 1st 2 games probably factored in as well.

So, you're fading them Dex?

yeah - see post 69 on prior page.

i agree that the line is definitely adjusted for this situation. without bynum, i figured lakers would normally be around -7 in a btb spot. should be interesting to see how teams (especially older teams) respond in these scenarios.

[Dexter]

Wednesday 12/28:

(3u) Nuggets -10 (A3)

[Dexter]

Tuesday 12/27:

(2u) Jazz +4.5 (A2)

(1u) Wolves +6

[Dexter]

why would i book the jazz at 4.5....

[fly fisher]

are you saying lakers or do you just mean that now it is at +5.5 for Jazz and now is the time to take them. I was hoping that the +5.5 was better since most people will think the lakers are due, but the Jazz have had plenty of rest and should be ready to make this a game.

Let me know your thinking because if you think the jazz are a bad pick, I will change to lakers and just lose vig.

[Dexter]

are you saying lakers or do you just mean that now it is at +5.5 for Jazz and now is the time to take them. I was hoping that the +5.5 was better since most people will think the lakers are due, but the Jazz have had plenty of rest and should be ready to make this a game.

Let me know your thinking because if you think the jazz are a bad pick, I will change to lakers and just lose vig.

i dont know if the jazz are a bad pick. will let you know in about 4 hrs. ha

i meant now was the time to take them. 4.5 was so low, but "sharps" always like to fade the lakers so i assumed it would close around 4.

[fly fisher]

good, I am sticking with the jazz at 4.5 and 5.5, lets hope this line treats us right.

[Dexter]

(1u) Kings +8.5

[Dexter]

A1: Fade any team playing their 4th game in 5 nights, so long as the other team is on at least 1 day's rest. 3u per play from Dec to Feb 28. 5u per play from March 1st till season end.

going through January now, and there are more A1's then i expected. i am changing the 5u plays to start on 3/1 instead of 2/1. Will continue to play A1 for 3u from now until 2/28. Plus with the season starting late, this makes more sense to me. 4 in 5 usually has more affect as the season goes deeper into the year, and in February the season is still just a month old.

[lakerboy]

Hey dex careful with the fading teams playing loads of games over 4 or 5 nights. Almost everyone will be in the same boat.

Gl this year bro.

[Dexter]

Hey dex careful with the fading teams playing loads of games over 4 or 5 nights. Almost everyone will be in the same boat.

Gl this year bro.

yeah, as always it will come down to a #'s game....i have to do a good job of beating the closer, and identifying when to book a play overnight or wait it out.

[Anthonyg7]

Good luck tonight Dex. Thoughts on Grizzlies/Thunder game?

[Dexter]

Wednesday 12/28:

(3u) Nuggets -10 (A3)

(1u) Celtics -2.5

I see Boston (like LA) getting their first win vs an inferior opponent. There is value on this line and the Celts fought hard in their 2 losses (where as a team like Dallas looks lost).

[Dexter]

Thursday 12/29:

(3u) Mavericks +7 (A1)

[Dexter]

Good luck tonight Dex. Thoughts on Grizzlies/Thunder game?

none...flip a coin for me....

[Anthonyg7]

Also playing celtics tonight. I see a hard effort out of them to avoid an 0-3 start.

[MrSink]

none...flip a coin for me....

you are right

like celtics also!
Good luck

[phenomenon]

what do u think about detroıt VS cleveland under 188,5 ?

[Dexter]

what do u think about detroıt VS cleveland under 188,5 ?

sorry man...just got back

[Pauulzcappin]

I kinda like the Mavs also... from what they have played this line is way too low.

[Dexter]

I kinda like the Mavs also... from what they have played this line is way too low.

too low? last year dal@okc the avg line was around dallas +4. i saw extreme value on dal +7 (down to 5.5 now) and we get that b/c of their ugly 0-2 start. the denver loss was alarming but the heat loss was kind of expected. i think getting on the road may be a good thing for them. i may sprinkle a little on the ML. i feel like if they cover, they win. the last 4 games in okc were all won by dal. maybe even more, but i lost the link to my historical site.

[phenomenon]

sorry man...just got back

np bro waiting ur picks,goodluck today

[Pauulzcappin]

too low? last year dal@okc the avg line was around dallas +4. i saw extreme value on dal +7 (down to 5.5 now) and we get that b/c of their ugly 0-2 start. the denver loss was alarming but the heat loss was kind of expected. i think getting on the road may be a good thing for them. i may sprinkle a little on the ML. i feel like if they cover, they win. the last 4 games in okc were all won by dal. maybe even more, but i lost the link to my historical site.

They played like trash bro. I mostly like because of their last year behaviour playing on the road. They just kicked ass most of the times, cover machine. Especially like underdogs.

[Dexter]

Thursday 12/29:

(3u) Mavericks +7 (A1)

(1u) Spurs -2

[Dexter]

(1.5u) Bulls -8

A play that in the past i would normally not take (a popular public road favorite). Have to mix it up more this year.

[Dexter]

Friday 12/30:

(3u) Hawks -11.5 (A1)

[Dexter]

(1u) Heat -7.5

[Dexter]

(1u) Bulls -1.5