John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[thelimit0310]

JM January 11

V2 SACRAMENTO +7.5 @ Toronto (B)
V1 NEW JERSEY +15.5 @ Denver (A)

All official plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

[thelimit0310]

why and how?? Their 0-4 on the road

The streak will break sooner or later.

[thelimit0310]

thelimit, are you going to put up one of your usual posts detailing tonight's plays?

edit: Also, how have most people decided to play the system? The discussion going on in this thread is great but what have most people settled on? Skip the 'A' bet? Wallco's 1-3-5 method?

I will be using the method I came up with and detailed a page or so back. A combination of Wallco's and Wilba's method.

[Kev the Brit]

thelimit, are you going to put up one of your usual posts detailing tonight's plays? edit: Also, how have most people decided to play the system? The discussion going on in this thread is great but what have most people settled on? Skip the 'A' bet? Wallco's 1-3-5 method?

You should only skip the A Bet if the long term stats/backtests prove that the A Bets win less than 53%. I don't think those stats have been produced yet. Until then, if you go for Wallco's 135 at -110 odds, you should play all 3 bets as required.

[Just_Wynn_Baby]

JM January 11

V2 SACRAMENTO +7.5 @ Toronto (B)
V1 NEW JERSEY +15.5 @ Denver (A)

All official plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

Limit, just to be clear....u are posting the plays with 3 points bought, however the B/C - 4/6 play method that
you've endorsed and are playing yourself does not require buying any points correct ?
I reference an earlier post of yours: "For example, skip A, and play to win 4 units on B and net 6 on C without buying points. 4/6 on B/C instead of 3/5 to compensate for 1 unit on A."
I just want to confirm your B/C - 4/6 method of play does not require us to buy the 3 points, even though you are listing the plays with the additional 3 points bought. Thanks,

[thelimit0310]

Just_Wynn_Baby, that is correct. The JM Plays are posted with 3 points bought, however I am personally playing the B/C method not buying points.

[Joey1031]

Hey Joey, thanks for the questions! I not only hope you read my response, but I hope everyone here does as well as this information about my method should be out there for everyone to see and understand!

Let me say right now that slightly less than 1% is what I would personally do, but you can easily get away with doing 1% if you don't choke under pressure situations.

Next, just a quick fact, using this method a series loss is actually LESS than the traditional method. So, if you feel comfortable at 1% traditionally, you have no reason not to carry that confidence over to this method.

Now, a quick way to find out what's best for unit size is to calculate what a loss equals, and divide it through your bankroll. So if you had $1000, and used $10 units (I would personally go lower, perhaps $6 or $7), a loss would be 10*15.8 = $158. So 1000/158 = 6.3 this means that you can lose 6 series (that's losing both B and C) in a row right off the bat without winning any other bets. How often does that happen to you? Going down to $6, your losses total $94.8. 1000/94.8 = 10.5, now you can lose 10 series right from the get go without winning anything at all before you'd bust. How often does this system have 10 C losses in a row without any winning bets at all?

Now lets talk recuperation after a loss. If you do lose the 15.8 units on a series loss, it will take at most only 4 winning series to recuperate the entire unit amount. But you can do it in as little as 2-3 series wins depending on the situation. Just to compare that with the traditional method, it would take you 16 series wins to recuperate. Which sounds better to you?

To quickly answer your units in play question - yes, in this method having 2 Bs and 1 C in play at the same time would = more units in play than the traditional method. But are you expecting all 3 of those series to inevitably lose? That's highly unlikely, and even if 1 of the plays turns into a series loss in the end, I have shown you can easily recuperate and survive. Not to mention actually be out less money than the traditional method (because as I stated a series loss in this method is less costly than the traditional way).

Like anything in the world of sports investment, don't be greedy and have the balls to do what is required of you and you will be successful here. Remember, a series loss in this method is less than the traditional method. Recuperating losses is much easier than the traditional method. And the profit margin is much higher than the traditional method. I hope this answered your questions and helped you gain a little confidence!

Perfect. Thanks... I may hold off this season, since it is shortened, but come back full force next season. Best of luck to everyone!

[Just_Wynn_Baby]

Just_Wynn_Baby, that is correct. The JM Plays are posted with 3 points bought, however I am personally playing the B/C method not buying points.

Great! Thanks Alot for clearing things up for me! By the way I am curious to know what your user name 'thelimit0310" might be referring to if anything at all ?

[DollarBill10]

JM January 11

V2 SACRAMENTO +7.5 @ Toronto (B)
V1 NEW JERSEY +15.5 @ Denver (A)

All official plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

Hi. What about Orlando? Did I miss something? I thought we were playing the push as a lost?

[adidas-b 88]

The streak will break sooner or later.

I like your optimism, let's hope it today!

[GGPLAYER]

So far it makes sense to play the A bets in V1 (4-2) and skip it in V2 & V3 (5-8).

[Wallco99]

Hi. What about Orlando? Did I miss something? I thought we were playing the push as a lost?

I won the Orlando bet @ -110

[stevex]

As far as the Orlando bet went....

If you got on it EARLY and I mean right after it opened you got it at 6.5 so you won at -110 odds. If you bought the 3 points, you won as well. I on the other hand got it at -7 so will continue the series as if the A bet was a loss. Best of luck tonight and lets get that cash money!

[Wilba]

So far it makes sense to play the A bets in V1 (4-2) and skip it in V2 & V3 (5-8).

You really think the results of 19 series has anything to do with anything? (Unless you have a time machine..)
the A bets could be 19-0 up to this point and they would still be losers with 3 points in the long run.
Similarly even if the C bets with 3 points were 0-6 up until this point they would still be winners in the long run.

Anything less than 1000 samples means less than nothing. Really you need 10,000 samples to be absolutely sure.

[thelimit0310]

Orlando won officially on their A bet, it is not an official play today. But if any of you pushed feel free to continue the series.

[Swan4brownlow]

please hold on sactown

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 8-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +8.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 1 (-3.41 units)


v1 Plays
(A) 7-2
(B) 1-1
(C) -
(D) -

V2 Plays
In production


Games for (1/12/12):
#8 Detroit (+8) @ Milwaukee (C) (8:05 pm EST)
#10 N.Y. Knicks @ Memphis (M/L) (A) (8:05 pm EST)


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

[xgame]

Look like det will going to D bet!!!

[knugen]

Can we let them play the C bet before u start talking about their D bet!

[shipsn2010]

Know doubt, we def don't need any doubters in the thread. Don't doubt just believe.

[shipsn2010]

If you Know doubt then you know defeat..

[thelimit0310]

JM January 11

V2 SACRAMENTO +7.5 @ Toronto (B) WIN
V1 NEW JERSEY +15.5 @ Denver (A) WIN

Good night last night!

RESULTS PER VERSION

Version 1
A: 5-2
B: 0-2
C: 2-0

Version 2
A: 0-2
B: 2-0
C: 0-0

Version 3
A: 5-6
B: 5-1
C: 1-0

Totals
A: 10-10
B: 7-3
C: 3-0

[thelimit0310]

JM January 12

No Plays

[jcygts6]

Gl on detroit tonite

[thelimit0310]

Would just like to take this moment to say thanks for the points guys, I appreciate it! Good luck on all who are playing Detroit!

[Bugs Bunny]

JM January 11

V2 SACRAMENTO +7.5 @ Toronto (B) WIN
V1 NEW JERSEY +15.5 @ Denver (A) WIN

Good night last night!

RESULTS PER VERSION

Version 1
A: 5-2
B: 0-2
C: 2-0

Version 2
A: 0-2
B: 2-0
C: 0-0

Version 3
A: 5-6
B: 5-1
C: 1-0

Totals
A: 10-10
B: 7-3
C: 3-0

great day. thanks for the update!

[ImakeBets]

Where did you get the +8 on Detroit? I'm only getting +3.5 on my book :\

[juice050]

Look like det will going to D bet!!!

shut the **** up weirdo go some where with your negative remarks.

[juice050]

go det

[jcygts6]

Where did you get the +8 on Detroit? I'm only getting +3.5 on my book :\

You are probably looking at the qaurter or half lines. Detroit is +8 everywhere

[Wallco99]

Where did you get the +8 on Detroit? I'm only getting +3.5 on my book :\

Detroit +8 is correct.

[Wallco99]

Look like det will going to D bet!!!

Not to be picky, but your sentence needs a verb!

[Gndias]

[ImakeBets]

You are probably looking at the qaurter or half lines. Detroit is +8 everywhere

Found it, thanks!

[1gamer]

Why is Memphis on the ML and not ATS? Does someone change the system to Chase -185 without me knowing about it?