Miami will win game 5

sweetjones55 · 06-09-11, 04:16 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

The imbalance in betting is crazy, with 95% on the Heat ML and 69% on the Heat spread... And despite the line being available for almost 2 days, the line has not yet reached equilibrium. Neither of these things are common occurrences and both conditions tend to be bad news for the team receiving more action. This is not a game to go big on regardless of the side you choose to back. I think the books are going to absolutely clean up tonight.

I don't really see anything crazy with the public betting and movement. Line seems pretty much set at PK at this point. Majority of bets on Heat and line dropped from +2 to PK, very standard. If the books really were leaning to the Mavericks and wanted to "clean up" then they would have just left the Heat at +2.

freeagent · 06-09-11, 04:17 PM

I like miami also, dallas has had to comeback from deficits to win their games, not tonight.

LordVodka · 06-09-11, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by freeagent

I like miami also, dallas has had to comeback from deficits to win their games, not tonight.

Exactly they won't come back tonight because they'll be leading the whole time.

pacerboy · 06-09-11, 05:11 PM

IN RESPONSE TO JR007:

Originally posted by goat milk

you are an awful gambler with a terrible memory

pacerboy · 06-09-11, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

i don't really see anything crazy with the public betting and movement. Line seems pretty much set at pk at this point. Majority of bets on heat and line dropped from +2 to pk, very standard. If the books really were leaning to the mavericks and wanted to "clean up" then they would have just left the heat at +2.

not necessarily they could be leaning mavs and be baiting the "steam chasers" and line movement junkies on the heat

rm18 · 06-09-11, 05:16 PM

Heat favored at bodog and mavs favored at pinnacle

JR007 · 06-09-11, 05:34 PM

Goatie thought you were the...icon....good luck tonight you" tool"

watch out now goatie.....streaks over...my experience is you will start to split games now ( if you bet more than one..at a time.)....then the splits go to a losing streak...from an awful gambler...I "smell a loss comin

Ibrakadabra · 06-09-11, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by rm18

Heat favored at bodog and mavs favored at pinnacle

Highly unsurprising considering their different customer base.

castaway · 06-09-11, 06:47 PM

Miami

Miami Lock That all there is to it.

Mikail · 06-09-11, 06:48 PM

books gonna take a huge loss tonight considering anyone with a clue knows Miami wins.

suicidekings · 06-09-11, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by Mikail

books gonna take a huge loss tonight considering anyone with a clue knows Miami wins.

When you put it like that, why even bother playing the game tonight... obvious outcome.

Mikail · 06-09-11, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

When you put it like that, why even bother playing the game tonight... obvious outcome.

gonna flip my bankroll 1x

Skidcom · 06-09-11, 06:53 PM

Went with Dallas and the Over. GL

lunchbawks · 06-09-11, 06:55 PM

these games all come down to the last shot, flip the coin

shocktopme · 06-09-11, 06:56 PM

NBA

Yeah I agree....I think the Heat +1 and over 184.5 is a good bet tonight........

obamaismyuncle · 06-09-11, 08:43 PM

Originally posted by Mikail

books gonna take a huge loss tonight considering anyone with a clue knows Miami wins.

SBR is great everyone thinking they're sharper than the next guy when in reality only about 1.5% of the posters here are making a profit..

jnickell100 · 06-09-11, 09:22 PM

Goat is on the heat???????? I call BS

biggamer3 · 06-09-11, 09:25 PM

Dirk has to many passes when he is guarded one by pine, he has to shoot when not doubled

winmoney · 06-09-11, 09:33 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

The imbalance in betting is crazy, with 95% on the Heat ML and 69% on the Heat spread... And despite the line being available for almost 2 days, the line has not yet reached equilibrium. Neither of these things are common occurrences and both conditions tend to be bad news for the team receiving more action. This is not a game to go big on regardless of the side you choose to back. I think the books are going to absolutely clean up tonight.

Hell yeah suicide king. It just like the stock Market. There both rigged. But at least with betting you get instant return. The over 186 is looking good and as the 4th begins the two major scorers are the keys to watch wade and nowitski. 1st half ate up 117 leaving 69 points for the over. the 2nd half is low it seems that the total should be at 99 instead of the 92 I'll stay with the over 2nd half.

ChileCheese · 06-09-11, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Don't have time to write an analysis like I usually do, but I should have one for tomorrow. After watching the game again this morning, I'm very confident that Miami will win game 5 comfortably. In fact, I think this might be he only game of the series where either team will dominate.

I said many times around the forum that Dallas was the play in game 2 and 4. I did not bet Dallas in game 4 because the ML was just way too expensive for a game I knew would come down to the wire. Dallas had to come back from behind yet again to pull out the victory.

Dallas has been outclassed thus far in the series and they are feeling really good right now that the series is tied. I expect Dallas to play much better ball tomorrow night, but it won't matter. Miami will dominate this game on both ends of the floor. I expect Miami to win this game comfortably, and game 6 to come down the wire. I don't think game 5 will be that close.

I'll have a detailed writeup tomorrow probably. Just want to let all you guys know Miami is definitely the play and I have called this series completely unbiasly thus far.

Haven't made any bets yet , but will post whatever I end up taking tomorrow. good luck.

Yikes... Almost like the EXACT opposite

OnTheRise23 · 06-09-11, 10:13 PM

lets go already heat. Need this one

bleek88 · 06-09-11, 10:22 PM

Step up heat

rfr3sh · 06-09-11, 10:45 PM

Next time goat

hugh4310 · 06-09-11, 10:47 PM

Not tonight buddy!

UpsetSpecial09 · 06-09-11, 10:47 PM

Dallas is too good for Miami! Dallas has more heart and determination and will win this series!

Goat Milk · 06-09-11, 10:48 PM

Mavs were outplayed this whole game. lost the rebounding battle. lost the assist battle. they had 4 random threes at the end of the shot clock where they just chucked them up and they all went in.

yeah i'm bitter about this loss. mavs were a horrible call in this game, just like boston lakers in last years game 5 boston was the lucky pick

fuk this

lakerboy · 06-09-11, 10:49 PM

Goat the problem is you should have followed last years script.

Mac4Lyfe · 06-09-11, 10:51 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Mavs were outplayed this whole game. lost the rebounding battle. lost the assist battle. they had 4 random threes at the end of the shot clock where they just chucked them up and they all went in.

yeah i'm bitter about this loss. mavs were a horrible call in this game, just like boston lakers in last years game 5 boston was the lucky pick

fuk this

Outplayed??? By who? Wade was out most of the game and when he came in the refs gifted him points by putting him on the line. Mario Chalmers and Wade are the only guys balling. Dallas should have won this game by 20+. Take out their defensive lapses and refs BS calls and it would have been uglier.

Oh, where the fuk was Lefraud in the 4th quarter

Mac4Lyfe · 06-09-11, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Goat the problem is you should have followed last years script.

Goat will NEVER bet against the Heat. That's the real problem.

chargers4222 · 06-09-11, 10:54 PM

yes. mavs were a horrible call. how will i cope with all this money

BallHog · 06-09-11, 10:54 PM

Get this Bet Outta Here! Heat bitch!

ShogunRua · 06-09-11, 10:56 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Mavs were outplayed this whole game. lost the rebounding battle. lost the assist battle. they had 4 random threes at the end of the shot clock where they just chucked them up and they all went in.

yeah i'm bitter about this loss. mavs were a horrible call in this game, just like boston lakers in last years game 5 boston was the lucky pick

fuk this

Oh man, I don't even know how to respond to this. Mavs FINALLY have a good night shooting and it's all bad luck to you. When you bet the Heat/Lakers every single game no matter what you are going to lose some.

ApricotSinner32 · 06-09-11, 10:56 PM

Hate to say I told you so, but you just don't get it.

Dexter · 06-09-11, 10:57 PM

Originally posted by JR007

As i recall....you said dallas would"PROBABLY" be the play in games 4 and 5......not to much about game two.....you made a passing reference to game 2...you stated that you made dallas the play about game 2 in another thread....c'mon goat......

YOU STATED THERE WOULD BE 'SMOTHERING PERIMETER DEFENSE BY MIAMI LAST GAME' DID NOT SEE TOO MUCH OF THAT.....ASK STEVENSON, TERRY AND BARREA..ABOUT THAT ..AFTER YOU LOOK AT FILM

lol....you just love badgering goat milk. whats this been going on for.....9 months?

Dexter · 06-09-11, 10:59 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Mavs were outplayed this whole game. lost the rebounding battle. lost the assist battle. they had 4 random threes at the end of the shot clock where they just chucked them up and they all went in.

yeah i'm bitter about this loss. mavs were a horrible call in this game, just like boston lakers in last years game 5 boston was the lucky pick

fuk this

oh please dude.....the mavs won the game, but yeah - the heat was the "right play"....