Books Make Same Mistake For Game 5 As They Did Last Year

terpkeg · 06-07-11, 11:24 PM

I like Dallas as well. 5dimes opened it at 2, Pinnacle 2.5. Looks like early Miami action moving it.

IamAmonkey · 06-07-11, 11:25 PM

like your reasoning..if it follows it is true..lol..goin dallas as well!!!

HoulihansTX · 06-07-11, 11:26 PM

Actually the oddsmakers know where the money is coming in, B4 they set the lines. So with that info, they can make lines that suck value out of predicted future bets.

Jasonal_98 · 06-07-11, 11:36 PM

I read an article in the Las Vegas Review Journal recently that said the bounce back theory still affects lines, but hasn't really been profitable over the last 7-8 years.

Sunde91 · 06-07-11, 11:42 PM

Originally posted by terpkeg

I like Dallas as well. 5dimes opened it at 2, Pinnacle 2.5. Looks like early Miami action moving it.

Pinny MIA +2.5 -120 = DAL -1.5 -106 or so

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Actually the oddsmakers know where the money is coming in, B4 they set the lines. So with that info, they can make lines that suck value out of predicted future bets.

They didn't know money would be on MIA game 4? Still offered a juicy value of +3. The lean is still an anticipation of a substanial MIA bounce back, which is groundless.

AribaAriba · 06-07-11, 11:48 PM

As long as both side are either 60-40 or between those, they'll make profit w/ the juice. Remember you need to hit at least 60% rate on a -110 juice on a flat betting scale.

clairvoyance · 06-08-11, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by AribaAriba

As long as both side are either 60-40 or between those, they'll make profit w/ the juice. Remember you need to hit at least 60% rate on a -110 juice on a flat betting scale.

its 52.5% on -110

Sunde91 · 06-09-11, 12:19 AM

95% on Heat ML and 68% on spread @ pregame and every ESPN dunce still talking up Heat

Mavericks have played terrible but are winning these games cause of 4th Quarter D where they simply need to double the hot player and it all falls to shit once they fall out of rythm and tighten up, except for Bosh hitting that one open shot or else this is a 3-1 series.

Mavs shot 39% to Heat 42% and still won game 4. This team has not shown up offensively, but the bench is showing some sparks. Game 5 is the time.

Will the refs be on the Mavs here like they were in game 3? And similarly to 2006 Heat in game 5 where Heat shot 49 throws to Mavs 25.

Debating to take -1 now or Live, cause there's been ridiculous value, but Mavs are play.

forzuto13 · 06-09-11, 12:56 AM

Man if you really want Dallas tomorrow then I'd put the money on the series instead. Cuz if they win tomorrow (like I hope to hell they do) then they have a very good chance to take the series. If they don't win tomorrow then it's game over most likely. they ain't gonna win two in Miami.

I feel that the way Dallas has shown resilience and resolve just proves that this is the year for this team. Everything is coming together to prove that. Dirk is a true hero and champion and the rest of the Mavs team now know that they have to carry the load too.

Let's go Mavs!!!!!!!!

No coincidences · 06-09-11, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by Sunde91

This team has not shown up offensively, but the bench is showing some sparks.

A lot of that is because shrimps like Terry and Barea can't get their shots off against the bigger Heat guards.

bleek88 · 06-09-11, 05:35 AM

Here

Whose better at offense Dallas or Miami?
Say...Dallas

Whose better at defense Dallas or Miami?
Miami
What wins championships?

Defense

Go MIA GL!

Goat Milk · 06-09-11, 06:02 AM

Originally posted by Sunde91

95% on Heat ML and 68% on spread @ pregame and every ESPN dunce still talking up Heat

Mavericks have played terrible but are winning these games cause of 4th Quarter D where they simply need to double the hot player and it all falls to shit once they fall out of rythm and tighten up, except for Bosh hitting that one open shot or else this is a 3-1 series.

Mavs shot 39% to Heat 42% and still won game 4. This team has not shown up offensively, but the bench is showing some sparks. Game 5 is the time.

Will the refs be on the Mavs here like they were in game 3? And similarly to 2006 Heat in game 5 where Heat shot 49 throws to Mavs 25.

Debating to take -1 now or Live, cause there's been ridiculous value, but Mavs are play.

ah....looking at stats will bury you. watch the tape. mavs played sloppy d in the 4th quarter, the heat's offensive was just even sloppier. you are overlooking a lot of factors.

DLy4287 · 06-09-11, 06:10 AM

Heat are the play they will bounce back from game 4 if they can close anything

daimoshokage · 06-09-11, 06:28 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

A lot of that is because shrimps like Terry and Barea can't get their shots off against the bigger Heat guards.

blah blah blah

Johnny 55 · 06-09-11, 06:36 AM

If LeBron shows up the Heat win, fairly simple in my estimation.

redrum · 06-09-11, 07:31 AM

the heat ml and the under is the play

Rolo1984 · 06-09-11, 08:38 AM

i wonder what would happen if lebron or wade would have been sick like Dirk. It is a pretty big difference if your starplayer is sick or not sick

squid44 · 06-09-11, 08:43 AM

Originally posted by Johnny 55

If LeBron shows up the Heat win, fairly simple in my estimation.

If LEbron shows up, they have a better chance of winning, but still may lose. And thats MY estimation.

Sunde91 · 06-09-11, 06:03 PM

-1 +100 $350. good size but not super big cause im checking out after Finals til football and not letting up profits no matter how confident.

Sunde91 · 06-09-11, 11:46 PM

Not bad timing for Mavs to put together first solid game of series.

2006 now trumps 2010 if we're looking to draw parallels with history here

Scorpion · 06-10-11, 12:20 AM

Originally posted by Sunde91

.

Dallas is the play.

good call