MIAMI HAS BETTER TEAM, AND ONCE AGAIN HAS REGAINED HOME COURT
It might seem odd to suggest that the Miami Heat are "in control" of a series that's just had back-to-back coin flip endings. Dallas scored the last bucket Thursday Night to win 95-93. Miami scored the last bucket Sunday Night to win 88-86 (each team winning on the other's home court no less!).
But, that appears to be the case for several reasons. Among them:
Can Dallas even things up, at least temporarily, with a win at home tonight? Let's run some numbers...
GAME FOUR: MIAMI at DALLAS
Miami leads 2-1
Vegas Line: Dallas by 2.5, total of 188.5
We haven't moved much off the closing numbers from Sunday. Dallas finished as a 2-point favorite because of late Miami support in Las Vegas. The total finished at 189, which ended up being way too high. Early money is split between people betting Dallas on the bounce back and people betting Miami because they don't believe Dallas should be favored given the flow of the series so far. It's not like the Mavs have had any comfortable fourth quarter leads. Tough to love that kind of team as a favorite. Totals so far have landed on 176, 188, and 174, meaning none of the first three games has topped the current Game Four total.
GAME THREE STATS
MIAMI 88, DALLAS 86
Shooting Percentage: Miami 44%, Dallas 40%
Three-Pointers: Miami 8/19, Dallas 8/21
Free Throws: Miami 12/15, Dallas 22/27
Rebounds: Miami 36, Dallas 42
Turnovers: Miami 10, Dallas 14
Vegas Line: Dallas by 2, total of 189
Notebook: Miami has been surprisingly passive about attacking the basket in this series. And, despite all of their talk about being more aggressive in Game Three after launching 30 treys in Game Two...they still couldn't get to the free throw line. They just moved their jumps shots a little closer rather than flying at the basket and trying to draw fouls. They did manage to bounce back from a loss with a win. But, it's not because the offense got better!
Shooting Percentages:
47% for Miami in Game Two
44% for Miami in Game Three
Free Throws:
16 of 24 in Game Two
12 of 15 in Game Three
Total Points:
93 in Game Two
88 in Game Three
We always tell you to be careful believing what you hear from the mainstream media, or from the players themselves. Miami loved talking about how much more aggressive they were on offense Sunday after the game. That's not really what happened. Late, in another nailbiter, they executed better on one key possession and Chris Bosh made an open jumper. That was a MUCH better approach than launching a guarded three from much further away back in Game Two.
As handicappers, you have to see what's REALLY happening in a series if you want to pick winners. Among the positives that are really happening for Miami:
For Dallas to win tonight, and to come back in the series:
It might seem odd to suggest that the Miami Heat are "in control" of a series that's just had back-to-back coin flip endings. Dallas scored the last bucket Thursday Night to win 95-93. Miami scored the last bucket Sunday Night to win 88-86 (each team winning on the other's home court no less!).
But, that appears to be the case for several reasons. Among them:
- Miami is clearly the better team. The series to this point has largely been Miami pulling out to leads, while Dallas desperately tries to rally back in the fourth quarter. Superior teams don't fall behind the whole game then try to salvage something at the end.
- Miami can still play well when any of its stars are resting. Dallas falls apart when Dirk Nowitzki is on the bench. The holes that the Mavs have been digging for themselves have occurred during the big German's rest breaks according to the stats.
- Miami isn't getting big time performances out of LeBron James yet. It's Dwyane Wade who's been carrying the scoring load since he regained his form after a little slump. Both teams have ways to get better because of inconsistent contributors. Only Miami has a guy who can take over the series when he gets better.
- Miami is guaranteed of returning home for at least one game unless they wrap up the series in Dallas. The last two games would be in Miami if needed. Asking Dallas to keep climbing out of holes, then do that again on the road is quite a lot. Plus, if anyone's going to get tired from all the desperation play, it's Dallas. Good luck asking a tired team to win on the road.
- For Dallas to win the series, they must go 3-1 over the last four games, despite having the lesser team who can't play well when their star is on the bench. For Miami to win the series, they must go 2-2 over the last four games...knowing that just winning their home games will be enough to get the job done.
Can Dallas even things up, at least temporarily, with a win at home tonight? Let's run some numbers...
GAME FOUR: MIAMI at DALLAS
Miami leads 2-1
Vegas Line: Dallas by 2.5, total of 188.5
We haven't moved much off the closing numbers from Sunday. Dallas finished as a 2-point favorite because of late Miami support in Las Vegas. The total finished at 189, which ended up being way too high. Early money is split between people betting Dallas on the bounce back and people betting Miami because they don't believe Dallas should be favored given the flow of the series so far. It's not like the Mavs have had any comfortable fourth quarter leads. Tough to love that kind of team as a favorite. Totals so far have landed on 176, 188, and 174, meaning none of the first three games has topped the current Game Four total.
GAME THREE STATS
MIAMI 88, DALLAS 86
Shooting Percentage: Miami 44%, Dallas 40%
Three-Pointers: Miami 8/19, Dallas 8/21
Free Throws: Miami 12/15, Dallas 22/27
Rebounds: Miami 36, Dallas 42
Turnovers: Miami 10, Dallas 14
Vegas Line: Dallas by 2, total of 189
Notebook: Miami has been surprisingly passive about attacking the basket in this series. And, despite all of their talk about being more aggressive in Game Three after launching 30 treys in Game Two...they still couldn't get to the free throw line. They just moved their jumps shots a little closer rather than flying at the basket and trying to draw fouls. They did manage to bounce back from a loss with a win. But, it's not because the offense got better!
Shooting Percentages:
47% for Miami in Game Two
44% for Miami in Game Three
Free Throws:
16 of 24 in Game Two
12 of 15 in Game Three
Total Points:
93 in Game Two
88 in Game Three
We always tell you to be careful believing what you hear from the mainstream media, or from the players themselves. Miami loved talking about how much more aggressive they were on offense Sunday after the game. That's not really what happened. Late, in another nailbiter, they executed better on one key possession and Chris Bosh made an open jumper. That was a MUCH better approach than launching a guarded three from much further away back in Game Two.
As handicappers, you have to see what's REALLY happening in a series if you want to pick winners. Among the positives that are really happening for Miami:
- They're playing great defense, holding Dallas to 40% from the floor in Game Three, and 37% from the floor in Game One. Only a late game lapse in Game Two kept this from being a 3-0 trifecta keyed by great defense.
- Miami forced 14 turnovers Sunday, after forcing 18 turnovers back on Thursday. So, the great defense isn't just about disrupting shots. The Heat are taking the ball away too. Miami has won the turnover category in all three games so far.
- Miami has done a good job on three-pointers. This wasn't part of their mix against Chicago. But, versus Dallas, the Heat are shooting 38% from long range...which is the equivalent of 57% on two-pointers. They've made five more treys than the Mavs as well. This was supposed to be a stat Dallas was going to win.
- Miami is attacking Dallas weak spots defensively. Peja Stojakovic might as well stay in the parking lot as vulnerable as he is on the defensive side of the ball. J.J. Barea has been badly outplayed by Mario Chalmers when both are on the floor.
For Dallas to win tonight, and to come back in the series:
- Somebody besides Nowitzki is going to have to explode on the scoreboard. It probably won't be Jason Terry because LeBron James is doing a great job of guarding him. The bench guys who were so important against the Lakers have to step up and be important here.
- Miami's going to have to lose focus for another extended period. Dallas has only made hay offensively during respites in Miami intensity. It's tough to see Dallas rising up and beating Miami if the Heat are at peak intensity. A lapse in one game (tonight possibly?) is more likely than three separate lapses over the next four games.
