Dallas/Miami OVER 186.5 Tonight

cblackgold · 06-07-11, 04:24 PM

I like it, thanks for the insight GoatMilk

Pick'nParlays · 06-07-11, 04:53 PM

appreciate your thoughts and an excellent write up.

Ca$hfloW · 06-07-11, 04:55 PM

I like it I just don't think I can pull the trigger on it

Goat Milk · 06-07-11, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by cblackgold

I like it, thanks for the insight GoatMilk

Originally posted by Pick'nParlays

appreciate your thoughts and an excellent write up.

no problem. good luck to you guys

yisman · 06-07-11, 05:03 PM

I concur.

Love The Action · 06-07-11, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

This is one of the toughest games this series to bet so far. I know that Miami will win 2 of 3 in Dallas, but I'm not sure who will win this game. I am thinking Dallas will win this game, but I just don't see enough on film to lay -150 on Dallas ML. Game 4 switches back to a coaches game, but we all know that Dallas was lucky to win game 2, and really lucky to even have a shot to win game 3 after trailing the entire game.

The adjustments with Dallas need to be that Chandler and Dirk need to set harder screens to free up Terry and Peja particularly. If these two guys get going Dallas will be fine, but without their production, I just don't see any adjustments Dallas can make in this game. Chandler has done about a good of a job you can do on Bosh, Dallas has been fortunate Lebron has been so passive in this series, and D wade- that's a matchup that Dallas will never win unless Wade has an off night.

I really expected Carlisle to use Brewer by now to try and throw a different defender on Wade or Lebron to give them some different looks.

Barea has been a non-factor in this series just as I said in my series writeup. He has done absolutely nothing, and has been a utter detriment to his team. I expect him to have at least 1 good game in this series, this could be that game. Dallas is really motivated in this game, but Miami is scary when they are playing with the lead. There is no pressure, no nerves, and they are just a different team, because they play like they have nothing to lose (most of game 2, game 5 against the Bulls with one of the greatest comebacks in postseason history if not the best).

Tonight Dallas i forced to push the tempo as much as possible. Without getting out on the break, they are making it really difficult to score against Miami's half court defense. Jason Kidd is a pretty cerebral guy and he understands this. I expect Dallas to be sharp offensively tonight with good ball movement and execution. They need to get 20+ assists as a team to have a shot to win this game.

Miami will come out relaxed and focused, and I expect great offensive performances from Wade and James as a result. Lebron has been held to about 20 points per game in this series. I think we'll see about 25-30 points from LBJ tonight and the same goes for D Wade. There is no pressure so Bosh should perform pretty well.

I think the Mavs know they have to win this game on the offensive side of the floor. They are not going to win a defensive battle with the Heat, meaning they need to score 95+ to win this game. Both teams score in the high 90s or low 100s here and the over is the best bet imo.

OVER 186.5 -110 Risking $275

I look at this game 4 being the only one of the remaining games of this series that has a decent chance of going over. With that said, however, I'm rolling with the under here for 5x after cashing the over in game 2 for 10x and the under in game 3 for 10x. I think the remaining games provide a perfect chase opportunity on the under to ensure further profit in this series.

The reason I like this game 4 is the pace and specifically the slow pace played by the Heat in the fourth quarter. I know you think the Mavs will push the pace and I do agree that this will occur in the first half. However, I expect the 2h to be very slow which is consistent with the previous three games based primarily on the Heat's intent to slow the pace. The Heat consistently slow the game down to a snails pace in the fourth quarter in order to keep the ball out of the dangerous Mavs shooters and more specifically Dirk. If you check the pace statistics, you will see a signficiant dropoff from the pace of the 1h to the pace of the 2h (this is common to most playoff games in fact).

One of the reason this game stays under is your reference to Barea. As you mention, he has been shut down fully by the Heat's defense. Barea does not have the shot or length to light up the Heat as he did in the OKC or Lakers series. The Heat's perimeter defense is superior to those other teams and that is why Barea has been shut down. However, one of the Mavs' main weapon to push the pace is Barea. If he's not on his game, or even in the game, I don't think the Mavs will be able to push the pace with Kidd alone. I agree that Kidd is a smart player and Carlisle a great coach that sees the need to push the pace. However, if the Heat are purposefully going to slow the pace with defense and half-court offense that runs the clock down to 5 secs before shooting, the only way this game goes over is if both teams have a high shooting percentage. With Barea neutralized, Kidd will have to play at the top of his game for this game to go over and I don't see him shooting lights out today. Kidd just can't rely on his playmaking for this game to go over and will need to contribute 12 plus points today. I'm not sure his shooting can get it done today against the help defense of the Heat.

Based on the previous two games, I just don't think either team will top 45% shooting for this game. Because of the defense that must be played by both teams in this game, I expect both teams to shoot under 45% and hit around 35% of three pointers. The best chance for the over in this game is the free throw attempts. In game 3, there were only about 42 free throw attempts. That is nowhere near the 55+ free throw attempts we saw in the first two games. If over backers such as yourself get 55+ ft attempts, you will have a good chance at cashing as long as the teams combine for a hit rate of 75%+. However, the refs in this game do not have much of an over lean other than Willard. Both McCutchen and Davis have a slight under lean or no lean. Therefore, I expect this game to have between 48-53 ft attempts. If we get those numbers, with a 45% or less overall shooting percentage and about 35% collective three point attempt hit rate, this game should just stay under the posted total.

I have this game capped at 182-183, so I think we see more value in the under here at 187 (which is what I have). I just don't think the Mavs will be able to impose their will on the Heat and force a fast pace, when the Heat want to do the exact opposite. Now, if the Mavs start off hot and hit some early shots getting off to an early lead, then perhaps they can force the Heat to play catchup via a faster pace. However, if this game is close or if the Heat are winning in the 4th quarter, the pace will naturally slow and, barring ticky-tack free throws, this game should stay just under the posted total. Good luck.

t-wizzle · 06-07-11, 06:22 PM

I don't think that an Over/Under is worth more than a 1 unit play in this series, if that. But good luck. I'm leaning Heat but don't know if i will pull the trigger.

alta · 06-07-11, 06:37 PM

I think the Mavs pull out game 4, 91-88. Marion and J.Terry need to add some scoring punch to Dirk.
Both defenses so tough that I think under again, but killer free throw shooting may make total close.

sportfan · 06-07-11, 07:47 PM

interesting but good luck

Fischnasty · 06-07-11, 07:51 PM

im really liking dallas tonight. good luck everyone.

Love The Action · 06-07-11, 10:10 PM

This 4th quarter will be a good test of our competing theories with me playing the under based on the Heat slowing down the pace in the 4th quarter and you going with the over based on the Mavs speeding up the pace. I guess we'll find out shortly...good luck.

Marigold HD · 06-07-11, 10:46 PM

What a nappy head play this was. Learn to cap. We are all on the under. This is the finals. Not golden state vs. Phoenix dumb ass. Lol

SportsPedagogy · 06-07-11, 10:55 PM

I can't knock the play, I was on it to. Luckily I took under 14 threes and Dallas -2.5 you should have went with your first instincts and took Dallas. Course, if they made the three at the end, the over would have been looking good. I think sometimes the lines are so good that it's part skill and part luck. Don't worry to much about this loss, on that same token, when you win a close game at the last second, don't proclaim that your plays were guarenteed

bureK · 06-07-11, 11:06 PM

I think we have a play for game 5. Miami all day this should be fukking 4:0 already.

Marigold HD · 06-07-11, 11:12 PM

I'm sorry I over-reacted on the op. But in the finals, shots are taken with less than 5 seconds on the shot clock. Plus, 2 great defences playing as well.

Goat Milk · 06-07-11, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by Marigold HD

What a nappy head play this was. Learn to cap. We are all on the under. This is the finals. Not golden state vs. Phoenix dumb ass. Lol

alright bro

ThaTopMoron · 06-07-11, 11:30 PM

these teams suck so bad in the 4th. i love it! so does my BR

Love The Action · 06-08-11, 01:59 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I look at this game 4 being the only one of the remaining games of this series that has a decent chance of going over. With that said, however, I'm rolling with the under here for 5x after cashing the over in game 2 for 10x and the under in game 3 for 10x. I think the remaining games provide a perfect chase opportunity on the under to ensure further profit in this series.

The reason I like this game 4 is the pace and specifically the slow pace played by the Heat in the fourth quarter. I know you think the Mavs will push the pace and I do agree that this will occur in the first half. However, I expect the 2h to be very slow which is consistent with the previous three games based primarily on the Heat's intent to slow the pace. The Heat consistently slow the game down to a snails pace in the fourth quarter in order to keep the ball out of the dangerous Mavs shooters and more specifically Dirk. If you check the pace statistics, you will see a signficiant dropoff from the pace of the 1h to the pace of the 2h (this is common to most playoff games in fact).

One of the reason this game stays under is your reference to Barea. As you mention, he has been shut down fully by the Heat's defense. Barea does not have the shot or length to light up the Heat as he did in the OKC or Lakers series. The Heat's perimeter defense is superior to those other teams and that is why Barea has been shut down. However, one of the Mavs' main weapon to push the pace is Barea. If he's not on his game, or even in the game, I don't think the Mavs will be able to push the pace with Kidd alone. I agree that Kidd is a smart player and Carlisle a great coach that sees the need to push the pace. However, if the Heat are purposefully going to slow the pace with defense and half-court offense that runs the clock down to 5 secs before shooting, the only way this game goes over is if both teams have a high shooting percentage. With Barea neutralized, Kidd will have to play at the top of his game for this game to go over and I don't see him shooting lights out today. Kidd just can't rely on his playmaking for this game to go over and will need to contribute 12 plus points today. I'm not sure his shooting can get it done today against the help defense of the Heat.

Based on the previous two games, I just don't think either team will top 45% shooting for this game. Because of the defense that must be played by both teams in this game, I expect both teams to shoot under 45% and hit around 35% of three pointers. The best chance for the over in this game is the free throw attempts. In game 3, there were only about 42 free throw attempts. That is nowhere near the 55+ free throw attempts we saw in the first two games. If over backers such as yourself get 55+ ft attempts, you will have a good chance at cashing as long as the teams combine for a hit rate of 75%+. However, the refs in this game do not have much of an over lean other than Willard. Both McCutchen and Davis have a slight under lean or no lean. Therefore, I expect this game to have between 48-53 ft attempts. If we get those numbers, with a 45% or less overall shooting percentage and about 35% collective three point attempt hit rate, this game should just stay under the posted total.

I have this game capped at 182-183, so I think we see more value in the under here at 187 (which is what I have). I just don't think the Mavs will be able to impose their will on the Heat and force a fast pace, when the Heat want to do the exact opposite. Now, if the Mavs start off hot and hit some early shots getting off to an early lead, then perhaps they can force the Heat to play catchup via a faster pace. However, if this game is close or if the Heat are winning in the 4th quarter, the pace will naturally slow and, barring ticky-tack free throws, this game should stay just under the posted total. Good luck.

Easy under based on a slow pace for pretty much the entire game, not only the fourth quarter. Both teams shot poorly based on some new defensive schemes and LBJ was a no-show.

JR007 · 06-08-11, 06:13 AM

Why are the heat ...not helping out haslem.....with the double-team on dirk , with the game on the line...
, gotta think the better strategy would be to make terry beat you from the perimeter than dirk from the paint
bad coaching