I have been giving this game some serious thought. Dallas didnt play too well last game and were doing fine until the heat d locked them down in the late 3rd and fourth. The mavs arent going to roll over and die. I expect a big game from them tonight and especially nowitzki and marion. Im not one to look too much into analyzing games for this league but i feel strongly that dallas will leave miami tonight with a split or worst case a very tough loss. The mavs were not ready the other night but Carlisle is a better coach than spoelstra and he will make the necessary adjustments to get his team in a position to win tonight. I have looked closely at all the odds and the prop bets/series markets and nothing indicates that Miami is anywhere near a sure thing tonight. Im gonna roll with the heart and desire of the mavs for this game. There is real value in +180 ml but more value on the spread.
Mavs +4.5 -110 (3x)
Mavs Ml +180 (1x)
Mavs +4.5 -110 (3x)
Mavs Ml +180 (1x)