$867.87 to be made. Is it time to hedge my Heat parlay?

El Sol · 05-31-11, 02:53 PM

well you are not even getting 3 - 1 on on this parley and you want to hedge leg three of this four leg parley. You are making an assumption that the heat are essentially a lock to win the series. The only way you can look at this unique parley at this time is make your gm 1 pick. You like dallas, hedge, like heat let it ride. If you get in the habit of hedging every street like this, you will be losing tons of value on juice.

For me, I cant answer the specific question because I will never release plays, but I had to comment because of the uniqueness of this situation.

The question I always ask people in this spot is if you were planning on hedging anyway, why did you take the risk and play a parley in the first place? Parleys are only good when the two events you want to combine are playing at the same time or better yet, part of the same game (thats a different topic!). The better alternative is to put the money you win on the first bet and re bet all of it on the next leg.

ANGRYBLACK · 05-31-11, 02:55 PM

Also, I'm more likely to take your points of view into consideration if you refrain from stating that you hate the Heat or can't stand Lebron...

ANGRYBLACK · 05-31-11, 03:08 PM

Thanks, El Sol. I shouldn't have included game1. I should have put $550 on the other 3 for $889.10. I'll be letting it ride. GO HEAT!!!

El Sol · 05-31-11, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by ANGRYBLACK

Thanks, El Sol. I shouldn't have included game1. I should have put $550 on the other 3 for $889.10. I'll be letting it ride. GO HEAT!!!

No hate from me. Im all about profit and making money, everything else is just noise..

Good Luck!

big cheyo · 06-01-11, 01:21 AM

let the heat keep riding man they might not win all four games in arow but look at how they did today

romaldinho88 · 06-01-11, 01:34 AM

you could hedge about 100$ at +280 on Mavs Series now to get nearly all of your risk back if worse come to worst. still leaves 460 as profit if your initial bet comes through.
Im very strong on the Heat though. I wouldnt hedge it anymore than 100 tbh.
TBH i would ride game 2 then bet Mavs 2-0 down,this way my $100 bet with the Mavs going back to Dallas for 3 straight home games at a better price to take the series,it would be a more profitable bet. i know theres more risk involved but i expect the Heat to win game 2 and all not lost at 1-1 as the series is still young.
so my advice is take the mavs 2-0 down or let it ride.good luck

ANGRYBLACK · 06-01-11, 11:48 AM

Letting it ride for now. Thanks for all of the advice, guys!

NickDiaz209 · 06-01-11, 12:16 PM

let it ride the refs won't let the Heat lose....if anything take heat Game 2

ANGRYBLACK · 06-08-11, 10:51 AM

I'm really thinking about dropping $150 on the Mavs+200. I should have hit it last night at +300, but I was greedy and expected the Heat to win again. Using this hedge, I'll break even if the Mavs win, and be up $717.87 if the Heat win.

So what's better? That freeroll on the Heat, or placing $375 on the Mavs ensuring $450 if the Mavs win and $490 if the Heat win?

ANGRYBLACK · 06-08-11, 10:54 AM

Originally posted by romaldinho88

you could hedge about 100$ at +280 on Mavs Series now to get nearly all of your risk back if worse come to worst. still leaves 460 as profit if your initial bet comes through. Im very strong on the Heat though. I wouldnt hedge it anymore than 100 tbh. TBH i would ride game 2 then bet Mavs 2-0 down,this way my $100 bet with the Mavs going back to Dallas for 3 straight home games at a better price to take the series,it would be a more profitable bet. i know theres more risk involved but i expect the Heat to win game 2 and all not lost at 1-1 as the series is still young. so my advice is take the mavs 2-0 down or let it ride.good luck

The "winnings" don't include the amount staked, so It would have been >$760 profit if the Heat win.

DemoralizdDreamr · 06-08-11, 11:01 AM

dont hedge it if ur still considering, i think this hits.

raidersfan · 06-08-11, 12:16 PM

Originally posted by DemoralizdDreamr

dont hedge it if ur still considering, i think this hits.

I agree.

UpsetSpecial09 · 06-08-11, 12:23 PM

Don't be greedy! You have a chance for a guaranteed win with either team or if you really just want to ride it with Miami, you can't lose. Mavs will take this to 7 games if they don't win it in 6. If you are only on here for action then I doubt you would be asking this question. Be smart and at least ensure that you can't lose.

I have done both of these options and I will say that it seems like whenever I don't hedge, I lose. 9 times out of 10 I would say hedge, especially for hundreds that a guaranteed....its not like we are talking about 20 to pay 35 or something here.

ANGRYBLACK · 06-10-11, 10:43 AM

Dallas is at 3 wins. The time has come to hedge this bitch. Anybody know the line? Is it around +200? And where? Bookmaker doesn't have it up...