Miami will win Game 1 and the Series: Detailed Write Up

Pick'nParlays · 05-31-11, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Thanks. I agree Miami is only going to get better in the future- it'll be pretty scary, but Kobe and them are all watching the NBA playoffs too right now and I think Bryant himself will make a move. He decides everything in LA.

Wow that would be something....

lyon804 · 05-31-11, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Thanks. I agree Miami is only going to get better in the future- it'll be pretty scary, but Kobe and them are all watching the NBA playoffs too right now and I think Bryant himself will make a move. He decides everything in LA.

Kobe can no longer be "the guy" on an NBA Championship team imo. I think the age,injuries, and miles on his body make him much older than his birth certificate says. I think Kobe can win again with teammates like D12, CP3 as examples,but in order for it to work he needs to be the leader only rather than shoot 20-25 times a game. It will be tough for the Lakers to make the moves considering the contracts they have to trade,move, CBA,etc.. add to the fact no team out there wants to help the lakers.

On another note Chris Paul would be a damn fool if he went to the Knicks and had other legit contender offers.

No coincidences · 05-31-11, 05:46 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

Kobe can no longer be "the guy" on an NBA Championship team imo. I think the age,injuries, and miles on his body make him much older than his birth certificate says. I think Kobe can win again with teammates like D12, CP3 as examples,but in order for it to work he needs to be the leader only rather than shoot 20-25 times a game. It will be tough for the Lakers to make the moves considering the contracts they have to trade,move, CBA,etc.. add to the fact no team out there wants to help the lakers.

On another note Chris Paul would be a damn fool if he went to the Knicks and had other legit contender offers.

Great post lyon. Agree 110%.

Mac4Lyfe · 05-31-11, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by upscope

I wonder if the Heat shoot 50+ more free throws than the Mavs do in this series like they did in round 1 vs 76'ers??
I wonder if the Heat shoot 60+ more free throws than the Mavs do in this series like they did in round 2 vs Celtics??
I wonder if the Heat shoot 30+ more free throws than the Mavs do in this series like they did in round 3 vs Bulls??
I wonder if the Heat shoot 50+ more free throws than the mavs do in this series like they did in the 2006 Finals vs Mavs??

If they do I'm picking the Heat in 6....If they don't I'm taking the Mavs in 6.

This is all that matters in this series. If the refs are on the Heat, then Mav backers don't have a chance.

Goat - good post but I don't think Miami want's to slow it down and make it a half court game. I think they will uptempo and try to get out in fast breaks. Half court will only see too much zone from the Mavs.

eldoctord · 05-31-11, 06:50 PM

Great write up but I perfer to flip a coin. Heads Heat tails Dallas...

Goat Milk · 05-31-11, 07:39 PM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

This is all that matters in this series. If the refs are on the Heat, then Mav backers don't have a chance.

Goat - good post but I don't think Miami want's to slow it down and make it a half court game. I think they will uptempo and try to get out in fast breaks. Half court will only see too much zone from the Mavs.

Agree this is what they want to do but Dallas won't allow too many fast break points in the series because they will protect the ball. Miami will get out and run at any time but I think we will see a good amount of isolation sets in the halfcourt, particularly for Wade in this series.

Goat Milk · 05-31-11, 07:41 PM

Miami -200 (ML) Risking $600 to win $300

I was gonna take the spread but I don't want to go against Paco's biggest play on that. Good luck to all tnoight, i'm out for the game. Miami will win this game.

No coincidences · 05-31-11, 07:42 PM

I thought paco's big play was DAL ML?

t-wizzle · 05-31-11, 08:10 PM

Haven't been around much the last few days but good luck, we're on the same side tonight. We will talk a lot about this series as it goes on.

oChRoNiCo · 05-31-11, 09:00 PM

GL with the selection Goat Milk I tend to agree with almost everything you have written here and am following along on the 1st 2 wagers I passed on the MVP play.

TwoWays · 05-31-11, 09:33 PM

Dallas looks very sharp. Miami will have trouble winning this series. Too many offensive options for Lebron to shut down.

Mac4Lyfe · 05-31-11, 09:37 PM

Originally posted by TwoWays

Dallas looks very sharp. Miami will have trouble winning this series. Too many offensive options for Lebron to shut down.

It's all about the calls. If the Heat get bogus trips to the line, they will win. If the series is called evenly the Mavs will win. I just don't think it will be called evenly.

BigDaddy · 05-31-11, 11:41 PM

easy winner

nice call and thanks again for the play

Goat Milk · 06-01-11, 12:30 AM

Thats 9 straight winning threads in the NBA

Twizzle, everything I have to say about this series is in the writeup, of course I will rewatch the games like I did last year and try and pick up on some anticipated adjustments.

sweethook · 06-01-11, 04:14 AM

realy a good call goat , nice work man thanks , gl

TheMoneyShot · 06-01-11, 04:24 AM

Great call Goat! I'm in some serious sh#$ right now... but an excellent read on your part

Love The Action · 06-01-11, 06:54 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Thats 9 straight winning threads in the NBA

Twizzle, everything I have to say about this series is in the writeup, of course I will rewatch the games like I did last year and try and pick up on some anticipated adjustments.

I believe this particular thread is about both game one and the series. Because the series is not yet over, this is not technically a "winning" thread yet.

However, I do believe that will only be temporary as the Heat will most likely win this series. Good writeup. I do not agree with everything, but you provided a good template for how the Heat will try to win.

I had a small lean on Dallas before the start of the series but the price did not offer enough value for me so I did not pull the trigger. Although I think Dallas actually still has a decent shot at winning game 2, I now firmly believe Miami will win this series.

After watching game 1, it is crystal clear that Miami's superstar effect will prove too much in this series. Without Caron Butler, the Heat have three of the four best players when you compare rosters. Dirk is great, but he cannot do it alone in this series. Plus, as always, the heat are favored by the refs and get those "superstar" phantom calls more than any other team. I am not bitching about it, as that is now just a reality. You have to incorporate into your capping and move on.

I also think team speed is a huge asset in favor of the heat. I saw multiple fast-break opportunities for Dallas that were foiled by Miami's ability to get back on defense. Miami's recovery defense from turnovers is so good because of Miami's team speed and length. If Dallas can't score some points in transition, they will have no chance because they will be limited to living or dying by three point attempt. No team can have success over a seven game series when they are dependent primarily on the three point attempt to win.

Nice writeup and good call on game one. Because I am not playing the series, I hope you cash your series play as well -- I think it is inevitable. Good luck.