Should I hedge my Miami bet??

[dlunc3]

I put a bet in on Miami to win it all at +400 back in March... obviously, at this point, I can get the Mavs at plus money as well.. What do you guys think, should I hedge the bet at all now? Or just let the series play out, and hedge later if necessary?

[Bradyd]

Playing it out is smart. Hedging it to guarantee yourself a profit is even smarter...

[lolbear]

always hedge imo, unless it's make or break for you (want to withdraw and cannot unless you win the +400). otherwise its always better to trust vegas' odds and lower variance.

[dlunc3]

Thanks for the advise guys... here is basically what it looks like.. I have three bets in on Miami totaling $375 to win $1175. So, my basic options are:

#1: Dont bet anything now, and only hedge later if Dallas gets to 3 wins, which then I would hedge and bet dallas on the clinching game.

#2: Bet 608 to win 942 on Dallas right now. By doing this, it would guarantee that no matter if Dallas wins or if Miami wins, I would win either $567 (about half of what I would win if I stick with Miami)

#3: Bet $242 to win $375 on Dallas right now to win the series. This would ensure that I lose nothing on the series. I either win $933, or break even...

Tough decision

[thebertshow]

Maimi is going to take it

[dlunc3]

Maimi is going to take it

Yea, thats how i feel too.. Im leaning option #1.. but would hate to leave that guaranteed $500 sitting on the table..

[lolbear]

Ultimately all 3 options should come out to the same expected value given vegas' odds. You feel Miami should win, and obviously bookies think so as well. That being said that shouldn't stop you from Hedging. Truth is it comes down to this (in regards to the series)-- if you feel Miami is bigger favorite than the current odds, you shouldn't hedge. (in fact you should put as much money as intelligent br management would allow you to into the series). If you feel otherwise, you should just hedge. Whether or not you want to hedge it 50/50 or 30/70 or 0/100 is just down to how much you wish to gamble. In the long run, however, hedging it 50/50 makes the most sense, so I would go with option B. Option C is okay, but obviously a bit more variance, but still less than playing it out. Option A really isn't a general option. Option A is just hedging in the last second, in which case you might as well let it go since Dallas odds would be too unfavorable by then. You can make a lot of different Option A's, it doesn't have to be 3 wins, and it should come down to the same thing in the end anyway (depending on how the books view Dallas' winning chances).

For best bankroll management though, go with option B. If you NEED that $900+, then go for option C. If you think Miami's odds don't reflect how good they are, go with option C, and put more money on the Heat.

[TheDane]

I would wait after game two.

[macoeric]

stick it out, you are sitting on a nice payout

[bleek88]

Go with the Heatles thank me later.

[bfour]

Miami SHOULD win game 1. The series price on Dallas will get way better.

[headhunter34]

I feel like miami is going to be a significant favorite. Like the dallas odds

[Blax0r]

You could also bet enough on Dallas such that your profit is locked in regardless of the outcome.

[dlunc3]

thanks guys...leaning towards doing nothing for now..and just hoping Miami wins game one like bfour said, and then jump on the much better dallas odds after the game... we'll see though, gotta few more days to analyze it.. leaving $567 free dollars on the table would be sick

[Wade Dwayne]

Let it ride. Miami in 6

[aznjeff07]

i'd wait until after game 1 to see how dallas fares against a super modivated lebron

[rake922]

let it ride since miami is winning it all

[BigDeem5]

Lebron won't lose, but maybe hedge after Game 1.

[lolbear]

what's the point of hedging?? i feel like most people only half understand the concept and reasoning behind it. how can variance not be mentioned by anyone? on the surface, it's about being "safe" but it is being way too generalized...

[plzkthx]

I like option #2. If i'm reading it right. You'll win $500+ regardless who wins?

[face]

i like number 3 the best.

[MoneyLineDawg]

If you really like Miami, I would wait.....You can always hedge later in the series.

[stikymess]

I would go B all day, guaranteed money period.

This is sports and one turned ankle or fall can have a great effect on the outcome. More than likely there wont be an injury, but you never know.

[yassen28]

If you need this money hedge, if not just leave them.

[dlunc3]

does anyone see a better price then +155 for dallas on any USA sites? I have seen someone mention that they have it +170, but cant seem to find it better then +155

[scholesy]

would definitely hedge if I were you

[PorkyPig]

always hedge when it guarantees profit

[IceSlipper]

personally id hedge enough so that it will cover my losses should dallas win, then after a game or 2 if dallas still looks likely, maybe make another hedge bet and try to make the profits 50/50

[TeamTT]

Good hedging, I think Dallas has a good chance