Help with hedging please????

FindTheLock · 05-26-11, 06:04 PM

you have a potential of 3 games left, but the bulls must win them all. To hedge this bet you would probably still end up losing some money, but not as much as you would lose if the bulls don't go 3-0 to close out the heat. if you have 5 units on the bulls to win the series then you could try hedging by putting 1.67 units on the heat for tonight. Then placing 3.34 units on the heat in their next game at home. If the bulls win both of those you will be down 5.01 units but you will still have a bet on the bulls at 5 units to win 8.25. The last game you could hedge with the heat to win at most likely plus odds guaranteeing you a small profit.

JR007 · 05-26-11, 06:05 PM

i WOULD DO IT NOW.MIAMIi...BRO FOR .. HALF YOUR WAGER........IN ESSENCE....TO CUT YOUR LOSSES......IN HALF.......

VegasInsider · 05-26-11, 06:07 PM

Even if Chicago wins tonight, it's unlikely they're going to win the series. Biggest problem you have here is that Miami ML Game 6 will be no value as the Heat will be favored by prob 5-6 like in Game 4. If you take Miami ML tonight and they lose, now you're just putting yourself at risk for more potential loss and you'll be getting shitty odds on Miami next game.

Heat +EV tonight looks very tempting, but I'd ride out one game. At least they're at home, should be able to hang on IMO.

FindTheLock · 05-26-11, 06:09 PM

as long as the heat odds in game 6 aren't -200 he could make a small amount of that 5 units back.

terpkeg · 05-26-11, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by NBA_Brosuf

So I have the Chicago for series Chicago +165 series 5U to win 8.25U

and I would like to know when or how or what to do with this hedge here? Should I play Miami today or should I play Miami next time in hoping that Chicago may win tonight?

I'm confused.

You're not in a position to hedge. You must live with your "mistake".

suicidekings · 05-26-11, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by FindTheLock

as long as the heat odds in game 6 aren't -200 he could make a small amount of that 5 units back.

The odds for Game 6 will likely be slanted towards the Heat even more in a home closeout game. I won't be surprised to see it open at -270 and move to -300 or more.

rockaflocka · 05-26-11, 06:19 PM

Its not even possible to really hedge at this point, your holding a losing bet

NBA_Brosuf · 05-26-11, 06:23 PM

Thanks guys. I think I know what to do now.

DR225 · 05-26-11, 06:23 PM

Don't attempt to hedge for the sake of hedging. I've been down that path before and ended up losing 3 times as much in an attempt to get out of a bad bet. Watch the game tonight and bet live based on what you see. And you don't really need to sweat it anyway unless your units exceed $100.

JR007 · 05-26-11, 06:23 PM

line looks like the wrong team is favored

suicidekings · 05-26-11, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by rockaflocka

Its not even possible to really hedge at this point, your holding a losing bet

The Heat being available at +150 on the ML for Game 5 provides a chance to at least cut losses. If you're taking Miami tonight, you believe the series will end tonight. If the Bulls survive, even the strong Chicago backers can't be hopeful of their chances in Game 6, but a live wager would almost definitely be available in Game 6 that's better than the opening line.

You might not be able to profit on the series bet now, but you can lose less...

NBA_Brosuf · 05-26-11, 06:31 PM

Great information all over.

We can't learn how to hedge if we don't have threads about it ya know?

Learning is a beautiful thing. Thanks to SBR members, most are the greatest.

JR007 · 05-26-11, 06:36 PM

Read what i posted in greeks thread

d2bets · 05-26-11, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

The odds for Game 6 will likely be slanted towards the Heat even more in a home closeout game. I won't be surprised to see it open at -270 and move to -300 or more.

No way. No way. 70 to 100 cents higher than Games 3 and 4. No way. You're telling me the Bulls are going to be getting 7 points. I can see an ever so slight bump, but not that. I'd say 5.5 translating to something like -230/+210 or -240/+200.

suicidekings · 05-26-11, 06:57 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

No way. No way. 70 to 100 cents higher than Games 3 and 4. No way. You're telling me the Bulls are going to be getting 7 points. I can see an ever so slight bump, but not that. I'd say 5.5 translating to something like -230/+210 or -240/+200.

Look at Game 5 in the Miami-Boston series. Or Game 5 of the OKC-Dallas series. Home closeout games have a tendency to have a very steep price on the ML for the home team. Think about how much money is to be made on the Miami ML in Game 6. The books have to protect themselves. I think MIA -6.5/7 and -300 is very possible.

FindTheLock · 05-26-11, 07:15 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

The odds for Game 6 will likely be slanted towards the Heat even more in a home closeout game. I won't be surprised to see it open at -270 and move to -300 or more.

I think he might find a line for game 6 if there is a game 6 with the live betting option better than -200. He will most likely lose money if his initial series play doesn't win, but he could make it a smaller loss by hedging each game from here on out by taking the heat.