line mover of the day

**darkghost** · 03-22-06, 02:10 AM

BBD,

I see that the final came in at 206, but just judging from the way the line moved which way is the smarter bet? Do you follow the early steam and play the over or sit back til it peaks off and play the under? I see this type of movement often and can't figure out whether it's smart money or public money that's causing it to move.

**adriano** · 03-22-06, 04:11 AM

i think it's public money. in this particular case it didn't look smart to play the under, judging by the 8-2 over Phx record in L 10, but that was how i would have played the total, based on other factors. IMO there is no general winning strategy, it all depends on the circumstances for every game.

**Alamorich** · 03-22-06, 08:03 AM

I just don't worry about line movement...never noticed any benefit to going with or against it...best thing is to handicap early and get down early.

**bigboydan** · 03-22-06, 08:16 AM

Originally posted by darkghost

BBD,

I see that the final came in at 206, but just judging from the way the line moved which way is the smarter bet? Do you follow the early steam and play the over or sit back til it peaks off and play the under? I see this type of movement often and can't figure out whether it's smart money or public money that's causing it to move.

adriano is correct in regards to this being public money pushing the line. the way to play this one would have been the under. IMHOO

**JoshW** · 03-22-06, 09:44 AM

If you can actually watch the lines all day makes sense to not bet unless the game is moving against you and then get down as quick as possible. Obviously 4 points on a total is going to be a big deal over the long run. But if your handicapping is strong enough or like most you don't have time to watch your plays getting down early with reduced juice is usually best.