Interesting line movement on tonights game.

[politicin]

We saw the line open up @ Mia +1.5, with the majority of opening action being on Miami. The line continued to move in Miami's favor, knowing the public was on Mia already. It moves to +2. It is now at +2.5. 40 percent of people are on Miami spread and 62 percent are on ML. Majority of people are on the Heat here. How do you interpret this line movement?

[t-wizzle]

The opening action is more relevant if you ask me. Heat coming off a 21 point loss and sharps gave them some action on the opening line.

[suicidekings]

We saw the line open up @ Mia +1.5, with the majority of opening action being on Miami. The line continued to move in Miami's favor, knowing the public was on Mia already. It moves to +2. It is now at +2.5. 40 percent of people are on Miami spread and 62 percent are on ML. Majority of people are on the Heat here. How do you interpret this line movement?

60/40 split in favour of the Heat ML
60/40 split in favour of the Bulls spread.

Totally normal line movement and public betting split for a game like this with a small spread. What APPEARS to be reverse line movement on the ML (Heat price getting better despite imbalanced action) is really just the ML being governed by the spread as there is a lot more total money bet on spreads than MLs.

[suicidekings]

The opening action is more relevant if you ask me. Heat coming off a 21 point loss and sharps gave them some action on the opening line.

What? Line opened at Bulls -1.5 and moved to -2, then -2.5 today... Where did you see early love for the Heat?

[sportfan]

The opening action is more relevant if you ask me. Heat coming off a 21 point loss and sharps gave them some action on the opening line.

25 fixed it for ya

[politicin]

60/40 split in favour of the Heat ML
60/40 split in favour of the Bulls spread.

Totally normal line movement and public betting split for a game like this with a small spread. What APPEARS to be reverse line movement on the ML (Heat price getting better despite imbalanced action) is really just the ML being governed by the spread as there is a lot more total money bet on spreads than MLs.

Excellent post Suicide. That really put it into perspective for me. So your view is they were trying to lure more action on the spread and away from the ML for people choosing to back Mia? Is a line change in the spread always/often accompanied by a change in the ML or not always the case? I would assume if they both moved it may continue to push people to an even better ML option, but I see if the ML stayed the same how the extra point might lure ML backers to want to take the points instead.

[No coincidences]

Bulls win by 1 or 2.

[BernardMadoff]

NoCoin did you change your name?

[BernardMadoff]

The opening action is more relevant if you ask me. Heat coming off a 21 point loss and sharps gave them some action on the opening line.

Its not the most important, many times its the most deceptive.

[SportsPedagogy]

25 fixed it for ya

103-82 ??

[suicidekings]

Excellent post Suicide. That really put it into perspective for me. So your view is they were trying to lure more action on the spread and away from the ML for people choosing to back Mia? Is a line change in the spread always/often accompanied by a change in the ML or not always the case? I would assume if they both moved it may continue to push people to an even better ML option, but I see if the ML stayed the same how the extra point might lure ML backers to want to take the points instead.

Usually the ML is governed by the spread as the spread is a much more accurate indicator of the matchup and more money is played on the spread. Sometimes they'll get out of sync but not very often. It's definitely worth noting when the spread/ML do start to diverge but that happens more often on larger spreads. I don't think there's any luring going on right now, as the action appears to be very balanced, with big money on both sides (smart or otherwise). The books are playing this one right down the middle. The total is where the books are going to make more money on this game I think.

I wouldn't be surprised to see big money pound the Miami line back down before tipoff as it would be the logical time to buy into Miami, now with about 20% more value than the opening price. I think it closes at 2.

[politicin]

I was shocked to see some Miami bettors hop on the opening line. I think logically it really had no ability to move in favor of Chicago.

[suicidekings]

I was shocked to see some Miami bettors hop on the opening line. I think logically it really had no ability to move in favor of Chicago.

Where was this? I don't see a record of this anywhere...

[politicin]

Not the majority, just bettors or "experts" in general. I can't imagine anybody that wanted the Heat and has knowledge of the game of betting to want to have jumped on Mia at opening. I was on covers.com and saw some perceived "experts" hop on the opening line, albeit only 1 or 2, it was still shocking to me that ANYBODY who claimed themselves to be an expert would be square enough to hop on a line so transparently capable of shifting in your favor and really no possible ability of shifting against your favor. Were they worried if they hadn't hopped on -1.5 it was going to turn into a pk over night? Obviously that would never happen is my point, so why would ANYBODY with a skill set to win in sports betting hop on Mia so early? Clearly those that did lost 1 to 1.5 points of value.

[suicidekings]

Not the majority, just bettors or "experts" in general. I can't imagine anybody that wanted the Heat and has knowledge of the game of betting to want to have jumped on Mia at opening. I was on covers.com and saw some perceived "experts" hop on the opening line, albeit only 1 or 2, it was still shocking to me that ANYBODY who claimed themselves to be an expert would be square enough to hop on a line so transparently capable of shifting in your favor and really no possible ability of shifting against your favor. Were they worried if they hadn't hopped on -1.5 it was going to turn into a pk over night? Obviously that would never happen is my point, so why would ANYBODY with a skill set to win in sports betting hop on Mia so early? Clearly those that did lost 1 to 1.5 points of value.

We'll see. I hit the Bulls -1.5 within minutes of opening at Pinnacle as I thought it would move to -2 quickly. It took 12 hours to actually move to -2 and another 2 days to move to -2.5. The last hour before tip will be quite revealing.

[politicin]

It's already shifting to -3 at some books.

[No coincidences]

NoCoin did you change your name?

This is my ghost account.

[suicidekings]

It's already shifting to -3 at some books.

Yes, but also some -2s. Split action. Not a game to go big on either way.