$OKC/MEM$ BIG Play Totals Tuesday

fixedgames · 05-03-11, 10:49 AM

OKC Over 197.5 x (8 units)
Action Reverse: Memphis +6.5 / Over 197.5 x (3 units)
Boston +5 x (2 units)

ManBearPig · 05-03-11, 11:55 AM

This line is actually pretty spot on but the pace between these two seems to be more up-tempo in comparison. However, this is the playoffs and games do get more intense and defensive minded. Now that these two have a game against each other I would expect adjustments to be made so you prob will see a more competitive lower scoring game, but the over seems to be the right side here...200 isn't out of the question though. I'm not on it tonight so good luck.

nthomas619 · 05-03-11, 12:17 PM

definitely the over bet with OKC

Chance2087 · 05-03-11, 02:17 PM

Loved the over in Game 1, but now I'm worried about better defensive adjustments in Game 2. Prob gonna stay away tonight but Good luck!

fixedgames · 05-03-11, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by ManBearPig

This line is actually pretty spot on but the pace between these two seems to be more up-tempo in comparison. However, this is the playoffs and games do get more intense and defensive minded. Now that these two have a game against each other I would expect adjustments to be made so you prob will see a more competitive lower scoring game, but the over seems to be the right side here...200 isn't out of the question though. I'm not on it tonight so good luck.

Defensive game resulting in 18 points less than game 1? I think around 10points. I'm not saying its gonna be 215 again. I think it'll be over 200 though

ManBearPig · 05-03-11, 04:53 PM

Of course it could drop 18 pts...now that they've gotten a feel for each other you would have to expect that these two teams will play each other better defensively and OKC will be trying much harder to avoid going down 0-2.

Breaking down the box score gives away some additional answers. Memphis had an OffRtg of 126 (vs. 112) or 1.26 PPP...that is a very efficient number compared to the league average of 1.072. This naturally explains why they had and effective FG% (real) of 51%. Another key stats TO's OKC had 18 vs. 7 for MEM which definitely had an effect on the pace as more TO = more possessions and and MEM was very efficient when they had the ball. The pace for this one was around 180 possessions (90 each) and while this is below their season pace avg of around 92, you don't expect them to play at the same pace in the playoffs due to the fact that teams are trying for 48 min and the intensity is much higher.

For a similar situation look no further than the Denver series starting with game 1 (spread in paren).
GM1 210 (204)
GM2 195 (205.5)
GM3 191(207.5)
GM4 205 (205)
GM5 197 (205)

One game went over (game 1) then things neutralized more in the remaining 4, and this was against a team that loves to get out and score in Denver.

I have this pegged in the 200 range and at 197 exactly using my PR so this line is sharp for sure. I think you have a good chance to hit but be careful when looking at trends because using reg season stats can be misleading as teams will be playing different and the line they are going under on are prob much higher. I do calculate H2H averages as well and that number is around 205, but I wouldn't make a play based on that because I know the situation is different. I actually place more stake in the avg 5 game number of both teams at 199 because this incorporates how they've played in the playoffs up to this point.

If I was going to play this would be my reasoning, which usually sounds like a lot less in my head...but good luck to your play.

fixedgames · 05-03-11, 11:04 PM

Come ONNNNN memphis. come back~~ feeling good about the over... lets make it a great night

No coincidences · 05-03-11, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by fixedgames

Come ONNNNN memphis. come back~~ feeling good about the over... lets make it a great night

No offense, but this has no business hitting. They're calling fouls left and right in a rout.

fixedgames · 05-03-11, 11:07 PM

3s dropping like crazy has something to do with it...

paco · 05-03-11, 11:09 PM

Westbrook misses wide open dunk lol

No coincidences · 05-03-11, 11:11 PM

Originally posted by fixedgames

3s dropping like crazy has something to do with it...

Or 14 FT attempts the first 7 minutes of the 4Q.

fixedgames · 05-03-11, 11:13 PM

Andddd the wait is extended with a missed free throw

fixedgames · 05-03-11, 11:16 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Or 14 FT attempts the first 7 minutes of the 4Q.

Its been a physical ass game dude

paco · 05-03-11, 11:17 PM

We got it,

ManBearPig · 05-03-11, 11:18 PM

Good hit...scoring picked up in the 4th to help you out.

fixedgames · 05-03-11, 11:20 PM

Originally posted by paco

We got it,

it'd be nicer if memphis can come back right now...

fixedgames · 05-03-11, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by ManBearPig

Good hit...scoring picked up in the 4th to help you out.

yeah started to doubt the over in the 3rd quarter

fixedgames · 05-03-11, 11:24 PM

awww wtf.... 3 pointer doesnt hit

asdfghasdfgh · 05-03-11, 11:25 PM

Nice hit. I was on the under so the 4th quarter was tough to watch. Wasn't expecting a 69 point 4th after a 46 point 3rd.

fixedgames · 05-03-11, 11:30 PM

Originally posted by fixedgames

OKC Over 197.5 x (8 units) Won 8 units
Action Reverse: Memphis +6.5 / Over 197.5 x (3 units) Loss -3.3 units
Boston +5 x (2 units)Loss -2.1 units

Net Profit/Loss: +2.7 Units

Shit shoulda just stuck with the Over bet.. But whatever.. I'll take the profit over the loss any day.

jacer333 · 05-04-11, 12:20 AM

Nice winner...this game was way too touchy for a playoff game, shouldn't have been nearly as many FT attempts.