3 Big Plays Thursday 4/28/11

[Wiscsportsfan92]

Looks good to me. GL with them

[Love The Action]

I'm off for dinner...good luck!

[Rolo1984]

awesome analysis as usual not putting 20% of my BR up. But that is because i am a soccer bettor

BOL to us

[GTS925]

2 plays looks good man!

[Rawk-]

i 3 teamed the 3 unders together plus hit hawks and lakers unders single. lookin good buddy lets hit it all.

[Love The Action]

Just back from dinner...about to check on the the games now...how we looking?

[RL75]

So help me if this clunker of a game hits the over (LA/NO).

[zaj128]

This under in the Lakers/Hornets game is about to be a trainwreck loss... They've scored on like 10 of the last 13 possessions between the two... The refs are taking over this total, sorry to say... This 4th quarter is an absolute joke, in other words

[SilverTongueFox]

It's mostly been on FTs too and Lakers uncontesting wide open 3pt shots. Lets go Lakers run out this clock!

[RL75]

This under in the Lakers/Hornets game is about to be a trainwreck loss... They've scored on like 10 of the last 13 possessions between the two... The refs are taking over this total, sorry to say... This 4th quarter is an absolute joke, in other words

Minimum 8 free throws shot this last 1:45

[Love The Action]

Keep the faith...be confident in the play.

[zaj128]

Please just run this clock out, the game is absolutely done with, please Monty

[zaj128]

Paul is out... Let's do the right thing here Hornets

[zaj128]

[RL75]

cash it. thanks op hopefully Mavs/Portland makes it 3/3.

just wish my parlay had been lakers -5.5 and not the goddam magic -2.

[Love The Action]

Congrats to those who tailed!

[zaj128]

Great analysis, great pick... It was the right pick all 4 quarters, refs just let that get closer than it should have

[ultrasouth]

Congrats to those who tailed!

[nickos86]

Great write up, and good work so far. On all three with you.
ORL ML didn't help my cause, but the Lakers in fine form bringing me well in to the +ve.

Let hope for another nice slow game for POR / DAL!

[migz]

Thanks LTA, waiting for the Por under.

[GTS925]

Congrats to those who tailed!

Thanks and congrats LTA!

[Love The Action]

What happened in the Boston Red Sox game? Lost by the hook...final score 6-2. I really liked that one too, but I guess we'll settle for the Lakers win.

Portland is shooting lights out this first quarter. I expect as we hit the second half, the shooting percentages will drop and the pace will slow. This is playoff basketball gentlemen, one of the best times to invest in sports. I said it earlier and I still believe it to be true, we will cash all three tickets tonight. Expect at least one 30 point quarter from the Mavs/Blazers. Bol..

[Love The Action]

Great write up, and good work so far. On all three with you.
ORL ML didn't help my cause, but the Lakers in fine form bringing me well in to the +ve.

Let hope for another nice slow game for POR / DAL!

[Love The Action]

Great analysis, great pick... It was the right pick all 4 quarters, refs just let that get closer than it should have

[Love The Action]

Great write up, and good work so far. On all three with you.
ORL ML didn't help my cause, but the Lakers in fine form bringing me well in to the +ve.

Let hope for another nice slow game for POR / DAL!

[pickemtowinem]

LTA:

[Love The Action]

LTA:

[Love The Action]

I have already locked in the following plays:

• Lakers/Hornets Under (184) 12.5x WINNER
  
• Orlando/Atlanta Under (178) 6x WINNER
  

Lakers/Hornets Summary

Here we go again with another big play on the Lakers/Hornets under.

In the last game, 70%+ of all bets were on the over with the total set at 183 and the public cashed big. Yet, the books only added one point to the total and opened this game at 184. If the books were fearful of another public over, they would have opened this game at 185 or 186. Instead, they are giving us an indicator that the under is the play here by opening the total so low. In addition, after opening, over 90% of all bets have come in on the over. However, instead of moving up a point or juicing the over, the books are holding steady at 184 and juicing both sides evenly. This opening line action, or lack thereof, also tells me the under is the play here. I expect the total to drop by late morning with heavy sharp action coming in on the under, but the total bets to stay in the 70% range all the way through the start of the game. That is why I locked in 7 units now. I don't see this total going up much and it will eventually fall. Plus, this is a good public fade. If the ref assignments check out in favor of the under, I will add units as noted above by around 11am EST.

I don't think either team will shoot as well as they did in the last game. Both of these teams shot 49%+ last game on a combined 142 fg attempts. Assuming these shooting percentages come down to a more realistic number of 43%, we should easily cash the under.

These teams have been playing to a classic zig-zag trend as high scoring games have been followed by low scoring games. I have no doubt this game should follow suit and go under. I just don't see either team shooting anywhere near 50% in this game 6. Plus, these teams have been playing a consistent slow pace in each of their games with field goal attempts consistently in the 140's. I see an even slower pace in this elimination game as both teams clamp down on D in the second half and really turn the game into a half-court struggle.

As I noted in my writeup for game 2 of this series, both the Lakers and Hornets were under machines all year, with the Hornets going 32-51 o/u and the Lakers going 34-59 o/u. At home, the Hornets were 17-26 o/u, while the Lakers were 17/26 o/u on the road. I see these trends continuing and the under hitting in Game 6.

The Hornets know they can't match the Lakers' offensive firepower, despite how great the Hornets have played on offense in this series. The Hornets were at their best this year when playing lock down defense and I think they realize they need to get back to that style of play if they want to win. On the Lakers side of things, defensive intensity needs to be key. The Lakers should be embarrassed with their recent defensive effort and need to ramp it up if they want to end the series on Thursday. The Lakers cannot allow CP3 and Co. to shoot well from the field or they know they will have to head back to LA for a game 7.

For the foregoing reasons, I am playing the under in Game 6 of the Lakers/Hornets series. WINNER

Orlando/Atlanta Summary

Just about every trend you can find about these two teams, and especially when they play each other, points to the under. I won't even take up your time listing all of these trends, but they all lean under in this game and in this matchup.

The total opened at 178 and is about to go down late night tonight or early tomorrow. I don't think we'll see this go up above 178 from this point forward. Pinny is juicing the under big time. Currently, the majority of bets are on the under. However, as the day gets older tomorrow, I expect that to reverse and most of the public to be on the over. After all, when the public sees a total set below 180, they think there is no way a game can stay under that low of a total. Consequently, they pound the over. However, we are smarter than that. We know that the books post the total that low because of the high probability that the game never reaches 170. I love playing unders below 180 and this presents us with another opportunity.

The pace in this series really hasn't been all that slow. The Lakers and Portland series' have been slower. However, whenever these two teams play, they generally play to the under. These teams play hard against each other and give top effort, which really shows itself on the defensive end. The zig zag theory definitely has not been in effect for this series and I believe we will see the fifth under in a row on Thursday. It's true that I usually like teams to bounce-back from poor shooting performances and vice-versa, however, in this series, I just expect both teams to shoot right around 40% consistently.

Just like the Lakers/Hornets, this is a game six elimination game. The playoff elimination game under theory is much strong when the elimination game is in the sixth or seventh game of the series as opposed to the fourth or fifth game of the series. For evidence of that, you need only look at the potential elimination games in the Bulls, Heat and Grizz series. Each one of those elimination games were in fifth games of their respective series and all of them went over. The true elimination game under theory does not hold water until the series get to the real pressure packed sixth and seventh games of the series as every possession and shot is intensified. Therefore, I see that theory helping us out in all three of the games on Thursday, including this Magic/Hawks game.

For the foregoing reasons, I am playing the under in game six of the Magic/Hawks on Thursday. WINNER



Good luck guys! As always, I look forward to hearing your thoughts either for or against these plays. BOL!

We cash our two biggest bets quite easily for a monstrous profit of 18.5 units.

Remember, when you feel you have multiple angles on a play that provides a great deal of +EV, you have to jump on that play and be ultra confident therein. Proper money management is the only way you will make consistent profit. You can't be aggressive with your unit count and go 12 units on each play, rather, you need to know when to bet big and when to play small. If you can hit 70% of your big plays and at least 50% of your regular plays, you will be in the black at the end whichever season you are playing.

A big part of being a sports investor is confidence. You have to believe in your abilities, your methods and your processes. I was ultra confident in those two plays, I bet them pretty big, my confidence never wavered and we easily cashed. Never second guess your instincts.

Now, let's hit this Portland/Dallas under for a big 3-0 night, and one of the most profitable of this NBA season. You gotta love the playoffs!

[Love The Action]

Although I consider myself a good NBA capper, I don't do write-ups. I absolutely love guys like this who put time and reasoning behind picks. Nice fvckin job LTA and best of luck with your plays. My boy NoCoin is good for this kind of stuff too!

Lakers/Hornets stays in the 170's tonight

Thanks...I have a lot of respect for NoCoin as well.

[Love The Action]

Yep...I'm aware. It's a factor. Especially because they are head to head trends and evidence a consistent style of play against each other. If you look at the Orl/Atl series, they have the same head to head trends going, only those trends are for the under. I think you definitely have to take those type of "publicly" known trends into account.

However, I don't think you can base all of your plays on those types of trends. First and foremost, I believe you can throw any games that were not playoff games out the window. So, with respect to the trends mentioned above, you should only look at the last five games between these teams. In the last five games, they have played, over, under, over, under and over. To me, this is a classic playoff zig-zag pattern and I put more stock in that trend than what you mention above which includes regular season games.

It's a pretty simple thing to see that, when these two teams shoot well one night, they return to their average or below in shooting the next night. In addition, this is game 6 of an intense playoff series. The Hornets have confidence because they have won two games in this series, but know that this game means everything and they must play lock down D if they have any chance of winning (especially on Bynum, they need to figure out an answer for him). The Lakers on the other hand are always confident, but know they cannot allow CP3 to score 30 and dish 10+ assists. On the games that went over, CP3 played well above his season averages. When the games stayed under, CP3 played at or under his season averages. Therefore, to me, the key for the Lakers is containing CP3. The only way to do that is to key him on defense and make everyone else hurt you. At the end of the day, if I were the Lakers, I would do everything I could to stop CP3 and let the Aaron Gray's, Bellini's and Green's of the world get theirs. If the Lakers can limit CP3, Ariza and Bellini to about 17 points and under, the under should hit.

On the other end, I almost want to say just let Kobe get his and make the Lakers a one man team. If the Hornets can eliminate the effectiveness of the triangle by stopping the players around Kobe, then he will try to take it upon himself to win. Generally, in those games where Kobe is selfish, the games go under because he doesn't get his teammates involved and they are not as active because they just stand around and let Kobe do his thing. That leads to less offensive boards and less second chance shots.

I guess I got off topic a little bit with respect to those trends you mentioned, but my point is that you cannot base a play solely on those trends, especially in the playoffs. This is a game six elimination game and the intensity, especially on defense, should be through the roof. I tend to side with the overall league trend of unders in playoff elimination games 6-7, over the head to head trends you pasted above. Therefore, I see this game going under. Hopefully, it's just like game 2 where we make a big play and sit back and cash it easy. However, I don't care if we have to sweat it out as long as we win. And I am really confident this game goes under.

Good luck with whichever way you decide to go!

Here is the total points for the Hornets to four scorers:

CP3 - 10 pts
Bellini - 11 pts
Ariza - 12 pts
Landry - 19 pts

Looks like we were on the money with respect to the Lakes game plan. They stopped CP3 just as I predicted and the under cashed pretty easily.

[Love The Action]

Really fast pace in the Portland/Dallas game. I see that pace really slowing down in the 2h as these teams concentrate more on the half-court game. This under should hit.

[tom1234]

LTA hopefully get sweep , but no matter what the outcome of the last game , it will be a winning night ,thanks

[Love The Action]

Only one MLB play tonight:

Redsox/Orioles over 8.5 1x LOSS

I think both Bergesen and Lester get shelled tonight. Bol...

Tough loss on the RedSox over. Final score 6-2 for a 1/2 run loss. -1.1 units in the MLB tonight.

[Half_Glassed]

LTA - I'm worrying about the foul counts....

[kruser]

very good write up and plays.!!