Mia/Phil Sneaks Over

[Love The Action]

HEAT/SIXERS OVER 186 2.5X WINNER

I will be playing the Over tonight in the Heat/Sixers game. This game opened at 186.5 and has dropped a point down to 185.5. I think that gives us some good value on the Over in this game as everyone overreacts to the recent playoff under streak and the elimination game under trend.

38.5%
40.5%

Those were the respective shooting percentages of the Heat and Sixers in their game on Sunday. However, these two teams have played a quicker pace than the final score indicates. For my money, the under is way too easy here and I see both teams shooting better tonight. All we need is for both teams to be around the 43% mark for shooting tonight, while averaging around 30% from the three point arc, and this game should sneak over the posted total.

Everyone is going to think this game goes under. Right now you have anywhere between 60% and 75% of all bets on the under. After all, this is an elimination game so these two teams have to follow the elimination game under trend. Nah...I just don't see it. Did the Bulls and Pacers follow that trend? The Heat and Sixers series plays to a similar pace as that Bulls series, only faster. In addition, the Heat should be extremely motivated to shoot better after that dismal shooting performance on Sunday. The Sixers, on the other hand, have gained some confidence from that game and go into this game knowing they can play better than they have so far.

My reason for this play is the low posted total and the value provided thereby. This total opened at 186 and sits at 185.5 as I type. I like that total to drop to 185 and then rise before tip. Getting this game at 185, whether we have to buy the hook or not, just provides more value for the Over than the Under. Remember, all of these playoff lines are super sharp so you need to bet on the side with more value. A lot of these playoff game will come down to the last possession to decide the game total. For example, just look at that SA/Mem game from a couple nights ago. Therefore, betting the side with slightly more value will lead to winning nights more often than not in the playoffs.

I just think the total for this game should be set at around 189. By setting this total so low, the oddsmakers are sort of comparing this series to the Portland/Dallas series which has seen its totals set in the 186 range. Therefore, you should expect possession and pace stats to be similar. However, when you compare the stats for the Portland/Dallas series to this Heat/Sixer series, you see that the pace in this series is much faster. The Heat/Sixers series has been played uptempo, while the Dallas/Portland series has been played really slow. Therefore, I think we are seeing an overreaction to the 168 points scored in Sunday's game and all the recent playoff unders. Consequently, I think we have some good value on the Over here. As long as they don't shoot below 40%, we have really good odds to cash the Over.

The opening total for the Heat/Sixers series was 190. The teams scored 186 in that first game. The other games ended with respective totals of 177, 194 and 168. I like this game to end around 190, right where the oddsmakers set that opening game total.

I know all the "public" trends, which I do put some stock in, favor the under. We already know about the playoff under trend and the elimination under trend. However, those are the reasons you will see the public on the under tonight, just like the Bulls game last night. Something just tells me that this Heat/Sixers game will be similar to last night's Bulls/Pacers game. I think the Heat score 100 or more and cover the spread. As long as we can get 86 points from the Sixers, this game should go Over.

For the foregoing reasons, I will be locking in my play on the Over once I see the ref assignments. I also want to see which side Pinny and Mbk are juicing around mid-morning. I will probably be locking this play in around 12pm EST.

Good luck tonight. As always, I encourage your comments explaining why you like or dislike this play. Thanks.

Total Units +2.5

This game pretty much played out just as predicted and "sneaks" over. I predicted 190, it ended 188. I predicted Miami would score 100, they scored 97.

I know people will say this was a lucky win, but luck goes with those who play the side with value. The value was on the over and we hit. As I stated previously, when you play the side with value as opposed to the easy or obvious side, you are going to win more often than not.

This was a nice 2.5 unit win. Let's hope the OKC/Den over cashes as well for a successful night of hoops. Good luck!

[ManBearPig]

So funny story...I bet the over and forgot so I won too...barely. It was a system play and I took it...on fire in the playoffs.

[Love The Action]

So funny story...I bet the over and forgot so I won too...barely. It was a system play and I took it...on fire in the playoffs.

[Love The Action]

MLB
Cws/nyy under 9.5 .5x WINNER
Oakland ML (+ 155) .5x WINNER
Oakland over 7.5 .5x LOSS
Tb/minn under 7.5 1x LOSS
Pittsburgh ML (+ 100) 1x WINNER
Orioles ML (+ 130) .5xWINNER

A nice 4-2 profitable night in MLB. I've been grinding out profit pretty steady in MLB since the start of the season so hopefully we can keep it up.

[Love The Action]

Not looking good for the OKC/Den over. They need 43 points with 6:36 left...hopefully those refs that favor the over come through for us.

[nmodi]

LT any thought abt tomorrow's game?

[Love The Action]

Damn...we need 8 points in 12 seconds... doesn't look promising.

[Love The Action]

LT any thought abt tomorrow's game?

Yep...I'm working on my writeups right now. Will have 3 big plays tomorrow.

[nmodi]

we might end up in OT if we get 3 here

[migz]

LTA, nice call on Mia/Phi Over. I was on the under U think ATL/ORL will go under tomorrow? I'm thinking ATL+2 and Under

[nickos86]

And what a sneak! GL LTA, was on the same side. Luckily waited for Live Bet to unload on MIA -6. Wade giving me a heart attack.

[NBA_Brosuf]

tailed ya on the over in miami.

Thank you so much there kind sir.

Time to do some more research for the next one.

[FightinIrish]

Can't believe I lost this one, I had the under, 0:07 left on the clock and Dwyane Wade makes driving dunk, sickening really ...

[chargers4222]

i bet the over 187 and turned it off as i saw wade dribbling down the court....so he really just went and slammed it home as time expired?

[FightinIrish]

i bet the over 187 and turned it off as i saw wade dribbling down the court....so he really just went and slammed it home as time expired?

It seems that way, I had the under at least one of us got the win ...

[chargers4222]

yeah i cant explain the pique of excitement i felt when i went on espn.com an hour later and saw "97-91" instead of "95-91". man the nba is so fixed is nauseating, but i will take it!

[NBA_Brosuf]

Thus why beating the line is so important. It has been a habit that winning or losing is depending on the last play of the game.