FairPlayBet's NBA play-off picks
Hello everyone! This will be my thread where i will post my picks by which i will attempt to increase my bankroll as much as possible. I will use 1-10 units betting system mainly on single bets where 1unit bet is worth 50 euros, while maximum bet of 10 units means a bet of 500 euros.Initial bankroll is € 4000.
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Basketball.USA.NBA 10/11 (EAST CONFERENCE)
Pos Team W L PCT Home Away Last 10 Streak
1. Chicago 62 20 0.756 36-5 26-15 9-1 Won 9
2. Miami 58 24 0.707 30-11 28-13 8-2 Won 4
3. Boston 56 26 0.683 33-8 23-18 5-5 Won 1
4. Orlando 52 30 0.634 29-12 23-18 6-4 Won 2
5. Atlanta 44 38 0.537 24-17 20-21 4-6 Lost 6
6. NY Knicks 42 40 0.512 23-18 19-22 7-3 Lost 2
7. Phi 76ers 41 41 0.500 26-15 15-26 4-6 Lost 2
8. Indiana 37 45 0.451 24-17 13-28 5-5 Lost 2
Basketball.USA.NBA 10/11 (WEST CONFERENCE)
Pos Team W L PCT Home Away Last10 Streak
1. San Antonio 61 21 0.744 36-5 25-16 4-6 Lost 2
2. LA Lakers 57 25 0.695 30-11 27-14 5-5 Won 2
3. Dallas 57 25 0.695 29-12 28-13 6-4 Won 4
4. Okl City 55 27 0.671 30-11 25-16 7-3 Lost 1
5. Denver 50 32 0.610 33-8 17-24 7-3 Lost 1
6. Portland 48 34 0.585 30-11 18-23 6-4 Lost 1
7. New Orleans 46 36 0.561 28-13 18-23 5-5 Lost 3
8. Memphis 46 36 0.561 30-11 16-25 6-4 Lost 2Comment -
IND Pacers @ CHI Bulls
[Playoff - Best of 7. Game 1]
Bulls finished regular season with best overall score (62-20) and also together with Spurs they have best home record (36-5). So, Bulls will be one of main favorites for championship title. They might not be experienced as the Celtics, Lakers or Spurs, but i do not think that will be big problem for them. In any case surely wont be problem in first round against very young team of Indiana Pacers. I see this series ending with easy win for Bulls, probably in four games.
Bulls were best defensive team in regular season and beside good defense, great advantage for them will be Derick Rose who is playing in amazing form.
This season mutual score between Bulls and Pacers is 3-1 in favor of Bulls. They won both games at home in United Center, 92-73 & 110-89. On the other hand in two games played in Indiana, the score was 1-1 with Bulls winning first 99-86 while in second Pacers won 115-108 after overtime was played.
So, due to the excellent current form of Bulls and considering on two easy home win over Pacers during the regular season, in my opinion handicap line in this first play-off meeting is not set high. I expect Bulls to cover. Maybe it wont be so easy as in regular season when they won with 19 and 21 pts margin, but in any case I expect home win with more than 11.
1st pick:
CHI Bulls vs IND Pacers
Bulls (-11)
Odds : 1.91
Stake: 6/10 (300e)
Bookie: CentreBet, BookmakerComment -
PHI 76ers @ MIA Heat
[Playoff - Best of 7. Game 1]
Unlike Chicago Bulls that will have an easy job, this can not be said for Miami Heat that will surely have a more difficult task in the first play off round in meeting with Philadelphia 76ers. Although Heat won all three meetings in regular season, i am not sure about their chances to cover handicap line in first play-off game. (-10.5) pts seems to me like to high line, but on the other hand, i certainly wont go against Miami.
So, for first game i will try with this bet, Chris Bosh to score more than 17.5 pts. Seems to me that Bosh lately was much more used as an offensive option, than at the beginning of the season. So, in last 17 games of the regular season Bosh even 12 times has scored at least 18 pts and only 5 times failed. In those 17 games his average of scored pts was 20.6 that is higher than 18 which he had in entire season.
As for the meetings with 76ers, in first game that was played in Philadelphia, Bosh has scored only 15 in 97-87 win, but in other two meetings (played in Miami) in two more wins for Heat 99-90 & 111-99, Bosh had 18 & 20 scored pts.
2nd pick:
MIA Heat vs PHI 76ers
Total points for Chris Bosh? Over 17.5
Odds : 1.91
Stake: 4/10 (200e)
Bookie: PinnacleComment -
ATL Hawks @ ORL Magic
[Playoff - Best of 7. Game 1]
I will be short here. Magic are far from last season form, but still in my opinion they are team for a class above Hawks. With Howard, best center in the league and with one of best coaches in the league, Stan Van Gundy, i see Orlando as strong favorites here. Last season was 4-0 in play-off mutual meeting. Now certainly not so easy, but 4-1 for Magic, in my opinion. Hawks wont be able to win away and i am not sure they will be even close tonight. Also, by the words of Van Gundy, guard J.J. Redick who missed Orlando's final 17 regular season games, will play in Game 1.
3rd pick:
ORL Magic vs ATL Hawks
Magic (-8)
Odds : 1.86
Stake: 5/10 (250e)
Bookie: PinnacleComment -
LOST 104-99
Despite Rose scored amazing 39 pts, Bulls failed to cover. Poor defensive first half for Bulls (have allowed even 55 points) was imo main reason for lost bet. I am going again with Bulls in game 2.
WON, 25 for Cris Bosh.
Well, i must say this was to easy. Heat failed to cover, but there were no problems at all for my bet. He covered quite early. At the end Bosh was the player with most scored points. I was totally right about this. Even 17 FG attempts for Bosh (8-17), while James (21 pts) had (4-14) and Wade (17 pts) had (6-13).
Now it's time for Magic. After Bulls and Heat have not succeeded, i think it's time now one favorite to cover the handicap line.Comment -
4th pick:
DAL Mavericks vs POR Trailblazers
Over 186 pts
Odds : 1.91
Stake: 8/10 (400e)
Bookie: BookmakerComment -
5th pick:
SA Spurs vs MEM Grizzlies
Spurs (-6.5)
Odds : 1.98
Stake: 10/10 (500e)
Bookie: 5Dimes
6th pick:
LA Lakers vs NO Hornets
Hornets (+10.5)
Odds : 1.92
Stake: 5/10 (250e)
Bookie: ExpektComment -
7th pick:
BOS Celtics vs NY Knicks
Celtics (-5.5)
Odds : 1.85
Stake: 8/10 (400e)
Bookie: 5dimesComment -
8th pick:
MIA Heat vs PHI 76ers
Under 190 pts
Odds : 1.91
Stake: 7/10 (350e)
Bookie: William Hill
9th pick:
CHI Bulls vs IND Pacers
Bulls (-10.5)
Odds : 1.80
Stake: 10/10 (500e)
Bookie: 5DimesComment -
10th pick:
BOS Celtics vs NY Knicks
Total points for Carmelo Anthony? Over 24.5
Odds : 1.66
Stake: 10/10 (500e)
Bookie: Pinnacle, Bet365
After Chauncey Bilups is out for tonight, there should be no problems for Carmelo to cover this line. He had poor performance in game 1 with only 15 scored points, but tonight much more will depend on him.
11th pick:
ORL Magic vs ATL Hawks
Total points for Dwight Howard? Over 22.5
Odds : 1.47
Stake: 9/10 (450e)
Bookie: Pinnacle
Low odds, but Hawks can not stop him. 46 pts in game 1 tell us all.Comment -
12th pick:
OKC Thunder vs DEN Nuggets
Under 206.5 points
Odds: 1.94
Stake: 7/10 (350e)
Bookie: Sbobet
13th pick:
SA Spurs vs MEM Grizzlies
Spurs (-7.5)
Odds : 1.93
Stake: 7/10 (350e)
Bookie: PinnacleComment -
14th pick:
IND Pacers vs CHI Bulls
Bulls ML
Odds : 1.58
Stake: 8/10 (400e)
Bookie: 5Dimes
15th pick:
PHI 76ers vs MIA Heat
Over 184.5 pts
Odds : 1.93
Stake: 6/10 (300e)
Bookie: 5DimesComment -
16th pick:
POR Trailblazers vs DAL Mavericks
Gerald Wallace (POR TBlazers) Over 14.5 Points
Odds : 1.83
Stake: 6/10 (300e)
Bookie: Bet365
Great pick in my opinion. La Marcus Aldridge is great, but he can not do it all alone. He needs help, and he will get it from Gerald Wallace. Great offer in this Eropean bookie. Better odds for this pick than at Pinnacle and more important lower line (14.5) than at Pinnacle (15.5)Comment -
17th pick:
NY Knicks vs BOS Celtics
Total points for Carmelo Anthony? Over 25.5
Odds : 1.63
Stake: 9/10 (450e)
Bookie: Pinnacle
Once again same pick for this match. Carmelo Anthony to cover. Billups is still out, also Amar'e Stoudemire questionable. But Anthony is ready for one more great game.
18th pick:
ATL Hawks vs ORL Magic
Magic to win
Odds : 1.90
Stake: 5/10 (250e)
Bookie: PinnacleComment -
19th pick:
IND Pacers vs CHI Bulls
Pacers (+6.5)
Odds : 1.70
Stake: 10/10 (500e)
Bookie: 5DimesComment -
20th pick:
MEM Grizzlies vs SA Spurs
Spurs (+3.5)
Odds : 1.70
Stake: 10/10 (500e)
Bookie: 5DimesComment -
21st pick:
DEN Nuggets vs OKC Thunder
Thunder (+6)
Odds: 1.83
Stake: 10/10 (500e)
Bookie: PinnacleComment -
Special thanks to a madrabbit for this last pick. Without him, i would maybe even take the Nuggets. But he said http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...-playoffs.html so, i just had to go opposit.Comment -
11W and 10L so far.Comment -
What's today's picks?Comment -
22nd pick:
NY Knicks vs BOS Celtics
Total points for Carmelo Anthony? Over 25.5
Odds : 1.78
Stake: 6/10 (300e)
Bookie: Pinnacle
With Billups still out (most probably) and Stoudemire in big injury problems (only 7 points in game 3), it is expected to Anthony takes most responsibility. Also i dont belive that he can repeat poor performance from last game (15pts). So, last chance for Knicks to avoid 0-4 defeat in series and i expect to Anthony provide something special tonight.
23rd pick:
ATL Hawks vs ORL Magic
Magic to win
Odds : 1.81
Stake: 6/10 (300e)
Bookie: Pinnacle
Orlando without Richardson, while the Hawks without Pachulia. In my opinion more trouble for hosts because of these suspensions. Howard after 46 and 33 in game 1 and 2, only 21 in game 3. Hawks without Pachulia will have more problems to stop Howard. On the other hand, Richardson is important player for Magic, but in my opinion Magic will tie the score in this series after tonights game.Comment -
24th pick:
NO Hornets vs LA Lakers
Hornets (+8)
Odds : 1.69
Stake: 10/10 (500e)
Bookie: 5Dimes
No special reason for this bet, simply Magic made me mad. I can not belive i will lose again on Orlando.Comment -
Not over yet..Comment -
25th pick:
MEM Grizzlies vs SA Spurs
Spurs ML
Odds : 1.90
Stake: 6/10 (300e)
Bookie: Pinnacle
13W and 11L so farComment -
26 pick:
Odds: 1.78
Stake:10/10 (500e)
Bookie: Pinnacle
This time i took this parlays:
Selection 1:NBA, Basketball
Orlando Magic 26-April-2011 4:05 PM PST
Money Line for Game 1.294
Selection 2:NBA, Basketball
Chicago Bulls 26-April-2011 5:05 PM PST
Money Line for Game 1.198
Selection 3:NBA, Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers 26-April-2011 7:35 PM PST
Money Line for Game 1.148
Risking 500.00 to Win 390.03 EURComment
