Bubble Teams Boost Bankrolls

lunchbawks · 03-21-11, 07:10 AM

eastern breakdown?

GarbageMan · 03-21-11, 07:23 AM

Thanks for the info

ICE-BLOOD · 03-21-11, 07:28 AM

motivation is BIG !

GoggsViggs · 03-21-11, 07:31 AM

I like this analysis

Pherst · 03-21-11, 08:00 AM

Yeah nice job on the analysis / identifying the trend! Might have to consider this in the future...

GarbageMan · 03-21-11, 08:18 AM

So should we looking at teams that have clinched a playoff places or division titles already?
They must have less motivation, unless of course they are wanting to get as high as possible in their conference.

lunchbawks · 03-21-11, 12:34 PM

this can't be proven until the eastern playoff race is there

Dark Horse · 03-21-11, 03:47 PM

Feel free to add it.

The dynamic in the East is very different. NY sits in the 7th spot, seven games ahead of a couple of contenders for the final 8th spot. No must-win situation there for NY anymore. All the teams below NY have losing records. They're teams that can't impose their will. Compare that to the teams in West who are above .500. That said, Philly had been playing hard with the playoffs on their mind (in the 6th spot), and has a very strong ATS record for the season, and the Bucks look capable of making a push. There is always a race for the playoffs, but you have to determine the quality of it in each case. This year the quality in the West is worth looking at.

JOHON8 · 03-21-11, 04:09 PM

This being said, which teams will be fighting hard for those spots tonight?

Pauulzcappin · 03-21-11, 04:15 PM

Who don't play each other: Indiana only. Denver pretty much will get 4th or 5th seed and face OKC.

Dark Horse · 03-21-11, 10:21 PM

3/21/11 - Only game qualifying in West: DEN (-12.5) beats TOR 123-90.

Dark Horse · 03-23-11, 12:59 AM

3/22/11 - One qualifying game. PHX (+7) loses 137-139 in triple OT to the LAL, and beat the spread by 5.

2-0 for the bubble teams.

GTS925 · 03-23-11, 01:07 AM

What's the play for tomorrow?

Dark Horse · 03-23-11, 11:32 PM

Originally posted by GTS925

What's the play for tomorrow?

I'm not giving plays. I pointed out an angle. The teams were listed in post #1, and they have to be monitored closely in the closing weeks of the regular season, because the edge will disappear when they're certain of being in or out of the playoffs. When any of these teams play each other, there's no edge.

Teams in action tonight:
MEM (+6) at BOS W
HOU (-8.5) v GS W
PHX (-7.5) v TOR W
UTA (+12) at OKC PUSH
DEN (-5.5) in progress; probably the first loss recorded here (behind 3 pts in 3Q).

With DEN loss, record is now 5-1-1 ATS.

Dark Horse · 03-24-11, 02:16 AM

No qualifying games tomorrow. Three on Friday. MEM@CHI, WAS@DEN, SA@POR.

JOHON8 · 03-24-11, 02:54 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

No qualifying games tomorrow. Three on Friday. MEM@CHI, WAS@DEN, SA@POR.

Dallas is battling the Lakers for 2nd place. Hornets are in arguably the tightest spot in the league table wise, I think this is just as important as noticing the qualifying teams no?

Dark Horse · 03-24-11, 02:55 AM

Dallas, yes, quite possibly, but it is not the focus of this angle. Hornets play another bubble team. No play here. Have to draw the line somewhere. Utah could become the first team to drop out of the race, and that would change things big time. As it is, they're fighting for their last chance and are back at home.

JOHON8 · 03-24-11, 03:04 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Dallas, yes, quite possibly, but it is not the focus of this angle. Hornets play another bubble team. No play here. Have to draw the line somewhere. Utah could become the first team to drop out of the race, and that would change things big time. As it is, they're fighting for their last chance and are back at home.

That's right the Utah game is huge for both teams, forgot about that. I think a wide range of spreads is good to take on Dallas given their home game atmosphere and the fact that Minnesota are in bad shape with nothing to play for.

Dark Horse · 03-26-11, 03:37 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

No qualifying games tomorrow. Three on Friday. MEM@CHI, WAS@DEN, SA@POR.

These bubble teams went 2-1 ATS (MEM W, DEN W, POR L), bringing the total to 7-2-1 ATS.

To continue this thread I would have to reevaluate the teams at this point. It will get tougher now to decide which teams are still in the race and which teams are about to give up. Has UTA given up? What about PHX? So I'm using this as the cut-off point. Hope you made some money with it.

====================

===========================

(At 44-29 DEN is in 5th spot and probably in a battle for 4th. With a 36-35 record, and with MEM holding the tie breaker, PHX is as good as eliminated. Will they keep playing? At 36-37 UTA is even worse off. So you could narrow the field down to:

6) POR 42-30
7) NO 42-31
8) MEM 40-33
9) HOU 38-34

I would keep an eye on these teams for the short term; things can change fast now, with not many games left).

JOHON8 · 03-26-11, 03:45 AM

I'm not going to touch Utah or Phoenix they've clearly given up. Memphis has been the most reliable IMO, they recently beat Boston and almost beat Chicago last night. If the public wasn't all over Denver then we could get some descent lines with them as well.

Dark Horse · 03-26-11, 04:16 AM

Originally posted by JOHON8

I'm not going to touch Utah or Phoenix they've clearly given up. Memphis has been the most reliable IMO, they recently beat Boston and almost beat Chicago last night. If the public wasn't all over Denver then we could get some descent lines with them as well.

PHX was still fighting hard last night. They were unlucky, because Gortat, their leader on D, broke his nose when he ran into Nash. Coach Gentry didn't even go back to Lopez, because he had been sabotaging his team by picking up 4 fouls in 3 minutes of play... With Gortat the Suns would have won this game. Since the ASB his +/- is an astonishing 11 pts per game better than Lopez, the starter that he always replaces. Still, with Nash, Gortat (if he returns), Frye, and Dudley, the Suns have the type of mentality to fight until the last breath.

(PHX was not included under the angle, because they were playing another bubble team.)

GTS925 · 03-26-11, 06:16 AM

Are the Pacers a bubble team?

Dark Horse · 03-26-11, 06:43 AM

You would have to determine first, for each conference and on a season by season basis, if there is a dynamic race for the final playoff spot(s). I did so for the West in post #1 by showing these teams had a combined 66% ATS record in their last 10 games. The small 7-2-1 sample since then produced at a 78% ATS rate. That's better than expected, but build on something that was already there. A playoff race is not always dynamic. In the West, this season, it's very profitable, because there's a relatively large number of teams involved that are all strong enough to translate their motivation into results. This season those type of conditions don't exist in the East.

Dark Horse · 03-26-11, 03:05 PM

Quick glance at the East, with L10 games for momentum:

Code:

1)  CHI 52-19 9-1 SU 7-3 ATS
2)  BOS 50-21 4-6 SU 4-6 ATS
3)  MIA 50-22 7-3 SU 5-5 ATS
4)  ORL 47-26 [COLOR="Blue"]7-3 SU 2-8 ATS[/COLOR]
----------------------------------------------------
5)  ATL 40-32 3-7 SU 4-6 ATS
6)  PHI 37-35 5-5 SU 4-6 ATS
7)  NY  35-37 2-8 SU 2-8 ATS
8)  IND 32-41 5-5 SU 5-5 ATS
----------------------------------------------------
9)  MIL 29-42 6-4 SU 7-3 ATS
10) CHA 29-42 3-7 SU 4-6 ATS

Only two teams, in the entire top 10, have a winning ATS record over their L10 games. CHI is motivated, because they want the 1st spot, and MIL has stepped it up. The two teams play each other tonight, with CHI as a 5.5 pt road fave.

Between the teams from 5 to 10, only 1 team has a winning SU record. Unless CHA wakes up, the only team challenging IND for the 8 spot is MIL. NY is pretty much safe, and obviously doesn't give a rat's ass right now.

Dark Horse · 03-27-11, 09:13 AM

Update for East:

Code:

1)  CHI 53-19 [COLOR="Green"]9-1 SU 8-2[/COLOR] ATS
2)  BOS 50-21 4-6 SU 4-6 ATS
3)  MIA 50-22 7-3 SU 5-5 ATS
4)  ORL 47-26 [COLOR="Blue"]7-3 SU 2-8 ATS[/COLOR]
----------------------------------------------------
5)  ATL 41-32 4-6 SU 5-5 ATS
6)  PHI 37-35 5-5 SU 4-6 ATS
7)  NY  35-38 [COLOR="Red"]1-9 SU 1-9 ATS[/COLOR]
8)  IND 32-42 5-5 SU 5-5 ATS
----------------------------------------------------
9)  CHA 30-42 4-6 SU 5-5 ATS 
10) MIL 29-43 5-5 SU 6-4 ATS

Let's see if, going forward, the three teams now fighting for the 8 spot will improve their ATS records. I have my doubts. I'm not sure what's wrong with the East, but am starting to get the impression that with the injection of all the superstars (big 3 Boston, big 3 Miami, Amare and Melo in NY) the sense of entitlement has gone way up. A team like CHI is still fighting in the old-fashioned way, but the rest? Battling with long spells of complacency.

M.W. · 03-27-11, 09:49 AM

6) POR 42-30
7) NO 42-31
8) MEM 40-33
9) HOU 38-34

I would keep an eye on these teams for the short term; things can change fast now, with not many games left).

Tonight's a big test for the theory. I like all four of these teams. We'll see how they do.

Dark Horse · 03-27-11, 07:40 PM

Originally posted by M.W.

Tonight's a big test for the theory. I like all four of these teams. We'll see how they do.

From now on it's going to take a day-by-day evaluation, which I'm not going to do here. Feel free to update this all the way to the end of the regular season.

The early two teams, MEM and HOU, both win ATS tonight. Add another 2-0 to the record (9-2-1 ATS).

cant call it · 03-27-11, 09:01 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Bubble teams boost bankrolls

say that 5 times real fast

just found this thread. 9-2-1 is great. good stuff man. Will def check back in.

Dark Horse · 03-28-11, 02:53 AM

Night ended 2-2 (POR and NO didn't cover). So now 9-4-1 ATS.

GTS925 · 04-04-11, 09:08 PM

Bump!