Finally Figured out NBA! Rest of the Season Investment Thread

[ClimbSomeRocks]

I'm 6-0 in the last 2 days. Undocumented and blah blah blah for you haters, so I won't count that towards my record. Feel free to tail and comment. If what I'm onto is what it looks like, 60% will be an easy mark to hit. Don't want to get too cocky though.

First official pick will be tomorrow, probably won't have many write-ups as I am much more stronger in Math and Logic than I am in writing.

GL to you all, remember to use proper bankroll management and DO NOT bet money you cannot afford to lose!

[ClimbSomeRocks]

First play
Miami Heat -2.5(-125) 1Q

1.25 units to win 1

The heat really have something to prove here. They will come out scoring big and (hopefully) playing a little bit of defense. I expect to see a double digit win in the 1Q. Betting on the 1Q here because the heat do not have the greatest coaching and have struggled very much in the 2nd half lately.

[ClimbSomeRocks]

2nd play

Lakers -5

[CubanoSteve]

FYI,

Reasons why Hawks will cover:

1) The Hawks come into this game having lost two straight at home, and will be more than motivated to bring their best to the court tonight against the defending champs. At the same time we think the Lakers will struggle to bring it all tonight, as they have a matchup with the Heat this Thursday.

2) The Hawks will also have revenge on their mind, as they lost by 24-points at Los Angeles back on Feb. 22. Atlanta is 88-58 ATS in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more since 1996, and 11-2 ATS in home games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons.

3) Play on home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points - in a game involving two average defensive teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, where the home team is a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games. It's 41-16 since 1996.

[ClimbSomeRocks]

Thanks, Cubano. Haven't placed the wager yet, I'll look into it a little bit more before I do so. That play is a straight tail from SJ55, although he locked it in at -3.5. He's hitting something ridiculous like 65% for the entire season. If you're not tailing him, you should be.

3rd play
Lakers -1 1Q

[ClimbSomeRocks]

all above plays are to win 1 unit unless otherwise specified

[ClimbSomeRocks]

2-1 today netting .75 units

Current streak is 8-1 (89%)

[Fleeben]

Undocumented and blah blah blah for you haters, so I won't count that towards my record.

2-1 today netting .75 units

Current streak is 8-1 (89%)

????? You must be good going 8-1 over the course of 3 picks...

[ClimbSomeRocks]

????? You must be good going 8-1 over the course of 3 picks...

A record and a streak are two different things. check this thread if you really care that much: Post 1405 and on is where I began my system and stopped betting NCAAB http://forum.sbrforum.com/sbr-points...epted-p41.html

and I was mistaken, current win streak is 10-1

[ClimbSomeRocks]

3 Plays today

Pacers pk 4Q 1 Unit
Chicago Bulls -2 3Q 2 Units
Boston Celtics -2.5 3Q 1 Unit

Thread record is 2-1

[DemoralizdDreamr]

time to start fading

[jacer333]

WTF....you are playing 3rd and 4th quarters before the games start?

[ClimbSomeRocks]

time to start fading

please just wager points with me if you think fading is a good idea!

[ClimbSomeRocks]

WTF....you are playing 3rd and 4th quarters before the games start?

Do you play at an online book at offers 3Q and 4Q lines after the game starts? 2H lines and 3Q or 4Q lines are very different. My strategy is to exploit the inaccuracy of those lines. But if you can find a book that will allow me to wait until some of the game has been played before placing a Quarter wager, please let me know, I'd love to find one of those that pays its winners.

[ClimbSomeRocks]

Cash the bulls bet. Got a nice 2h bet here

Indiana -2 2h 1unit

I really like this play as the Wolves are going to fall apart since the entire goal of this game was to get Kevin Love's double double, not to win the game.

[ClimbSomeRocks]

2-2 today. Indiana pacers shot under 30% against the Minnesota Timberwolves for crying out loud!

Still won .8 Units today!

Thread record: 4-3 (57.1%) +1.55 Units

[sinhdinh]

record should be 4-3

[ClimbSomeRocks]

record should be 4-3

Thank You Sir for pointing that out to me.

[lolbear]

you already got too cocky by saying 60% should be an easy mark. You probably won't hit it, let alone it being easy.

[ClimbSomeRocks]

you already got too cocky by saying 60% should be an easy mark. You probably won't hit it, let alone it being easy.

People always say I'm overconfident. I generally respond by showing my penis, then their is no talk of me being overconfident. Unfortunately this is a gambling forum, I don't find it appropriate. Just continue to watch the plays and tail/fade as you desire

No plays qualify for the system today, but I do really like the knicks

New York Knicks +6 1Unit

[phillybadboy]

6-0 nice

[ClimbSomeRocks]

Knicks got blown out.... Looks like there will be about 4 system plays tomorrow

Thread Record: 4-4 50% +.55 units

[ClimbSomeRocks]

5 Plays today!

Celtics -.5(-105) 1Q 1unit
Bulls -2 1Q 1 unit
Celtics -.5 3Q 2 units
Bulls -2 3Q 1 unit
Jazz PK 4Q 2 units

[ClimbSomeRocks]

2-2-1 yesterday losing .25 units of juice

Thread record is at 6-6-1 (50%) +0.3 Units

For those of you tracking, do I just ignore the push's as part of my win/loss percentage or put them in so it's 46.2%

[ClimbSomeRocks]

Miami Heat -2.5 1Q 2units

[ClimbSomeRocks]

Cash it. This next play is big!

Chicago Bulls -3 3Q 4units

[ClimbSomeRocks]

Clippers -.5 1Q 1 unit

This play is interesting, my model shows it as a huge play, I just haven't seen enough of the Clippers this season to make it more than 1 unit. Playing in Washington doesn't have a huge effect on this game either. I'm sure this is going to be one of those games where I'm cautious about wagering very much, and they end up covering very easily.

[ClimbSomeRocks]

2-1 today but losing 1.4 units because of poor betting. Of course the clippers blew Washington out when I only placed a 1 unit bet.

Also, I had 8 other plays that just missed the cut, they went 4-2. I may experiment with adding more plays and only varying between 1 and 2 units. We'll see how tomorrow's card looks.

Thread Record: 8-7-1 (53.3%) -1.1 Units

[somachino1]

Give it up. Go climb some rocks. You went 6-0 with no proof and all of a sudden you have an investment thread? Yikes.

[Hulk32ster]

close this thread.....you cant say you got it figured out after winning just 6 picks.....i won 17 baseball games in a row once and i thought i had it figured out....went about 50/50 after that...

[El Sol]

close this thread.....you cant say you got it figured out after winning just 6 picks.....i won 17 baseball games in a row once and i thought i had it figured out....went about 50/50 after that...

I could've sworn I had the ponies figured out. Twenty years later Im still not a millionaire

[ClimbSomeRocks]

You guys won't be hating when I'm 60% + and up more than 10 units by the end of the season.

Here's todays card:

Minnesota Timberwolves +2 1Q 2 units
OKC Thunder -2.5 2Q 1 unit
OKC Thunder -3 3Q 1 unit
Boston Celtics -2.5 3Q 1 unit

BOL today! Fade or Tail as you see fit. The Timberwolves came as a huge play with my model, After the bulls game yesterday I can't bear to play them that heavy. Just watch them win the 1Q by double digits though

[ClimbSomeRocks]

2-2 today losing 1.3 units

10-9 (52.6%) - 2.4 units

[ClimbSomeRocks]

6 Plays qualify today:

Celtics -1.5 1Q
76ers -.5(-105) 1Q
Celtics -1.5 3Q
Grizzlies -1.5 3Q
Spurs +1.5 4Q
Utah +.5 4Q

Each play is 1 unit. My model has been further tweaked to hopefully produce better results. I expect Boston to cover both quarters easily and cover the 5 points for the entire game as well.