A little bit of bad luck betting Nuggs live

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  • demens
    SBR MVP
    • 10-22-10
    • 2785

    #1
    A little bit of bad luck betting Nuggs live
    I've been trying to experiment with live betting a bit and this might have killed it for me.

    Took Nuggs ML 1x +250 prior to the game with the intention to hende live for a profit. Blazers lead most of the 1st half, then Nuggs finally make their run midway through the 3rd qtr. and take a 4 point lead, Jerk off books only offer Blazers -150, so i decide to take the spread instead -2 -110 for 2x. I thought Blazers would close it out since Nuggs have no go to guy yet and win by more then 2. Nuggs extend the lead a min later could have had Blazers +160. Ohh well, no big deal.

    Leading by 6 with 40 seconds left.
    -Roy hits a 3
    -Felton answers with a 2
    -Rudy hits a 3
    -Gallo, guy 1 point short of matching a career high and an 89% FT shooter goes 1/2
    -Roy hits a 3, tie game
    -Lawson misses a (tough) lay-up at the buzzer to win it.

    OT
    23 seconds left Denver down 1. Still feel good, if Nuggs hit they win, if they miss they foul Blazers hit FTs and win by 3. Rather then attacking as soon as possible Blazers defense forces them to bubble the ball Felton almost lost it out of bounce with 9 seconds left. Still alive. Gallo fires a wide open 3, in and out, rebound goes off freaking Andre Millers head still Nuggs ball, 2 seconds left Afflalo take a tough 3 and Portland wins by 1 point middling me straight in the ass.

    Bodog is party to blame with their BS live options where they offer the ML at freaking random. 1 time out they do, another they dont, who the **** knows when they will offer it or not. Been tracking it and noticed they wont offer 1 with a lead over 10, but under 10 is still inconsistent, like some times if they feel like it they wont offer. Had this been 5D i would have made it out of this game on top. So i'm done with Bodog live betting.

    That tops off a nice month of not great luck. 5 loses from breaking even which includes 4 in the "uniformed" category, where a last min trade news (bos), player protest (det) or star who was probable not playing. And 2-7 record for 1 possession covers.
  • MadMajor
    SBR High Roller
    • 01-07-11
    • 111

    #2
    Gotta love gambling.. funny how those feel to strike more often than the other way around
    some bookies are really conservative about moving the ML during the game, although there are many who adjust the line almost only based on the current score. seems like some easy bucks to make if you have the money and guts and trust that there will be considerable momentum changes (which I feel there always are). That is based on the european bookies I use though, maybe it's a bit more cautious live odds where the market is bigger in the us
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    • daimoshokage
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 02-07-11
      • 8935

      #3
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