The zebras & the circus (the show must go on)

Dark Horse · 02-25-11, 01:55 PM

That worked out pretty good. I actually saw the refs help turn this game around in the third quarter; there was a point where both Lebron and Wade were protesting with the same ref after a bogus call and technical FT.

Only looking at this for nationally televised games. The idea being that advertisers are not interested in blowouts. There's a reason that the show must go on.

Tonight's games: OKC @ ORL, and DEN @ POR, both at ESPN.

ORL is favored by 6.5 pts.

Zebra # 1. Pat Fraher. Home faves in the 5 to 9.5 pt slot are 9-7 ATS. No edge.
Zebra # 2. Monty McCutchen. This is the guy to watch. Home faves of 4.5 pts and less are 1-11 ATS with him blowing the whistle, but the larger home faves of 5 to 9.5 pts are suddenly 10-4 ATS.
Zebra # 3. Tony Nunez is a home ref. Home favs in the 5 to 9.5 slot are 7-4 ATS, and all home teams of spreads 5 or greater are 17-6 ATS.

Orlando gets the nod: Fraher 9-7, McCutchen 10-4, and Nunez 7-4 ATS. I didn't check for overlap, but would take the 26-15 ATS record as ticket to the circus.

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I'll keep this short for game 2, with DEN +6.5 getting the nod. Zebras ATS records are for home faves in the 5 to 9.5 pt slot: Joey Crawford 4-7, Derek Richardson 4-10, Sean Wright 2-4. Total 10-21 ATS. Steep hill to climb for POR, so take the Nuggets.

Dark Horse · 02-26-11, 01:33 AM

3-0 ATS for the zebras so far. Nothing tomorrow. Next nationally televised game is Sunday: LAL @ OKC

cleaveland · 02-26-11, 02:40 AM

Thank you for proving to all that the league is fixed.

I predict the doubters won't even challenge you because they know they can't debate you on this and win.

cleaveland · 02-26-11, 02:41 AM

What's your opinion on the fourth quarter of game 7 when the Lakers got 21 free throws in 12 minutes? Did the league hand them the title or what?

Dark Horse · 02-26-11, 03:02 AM

Refs have tendencies. But those tendencies manifesting with a certain predictability doesn't necessarily mean that the game is fixed. It just means that the refs are predictable.

jcygts6 · 02-26-11, 03:06 AM

wow nice work in here... going to be checking in regularly for your analysis of televised games

3PtShooter · 02-26-11, 04:05 AM

french toast bacon coffee

Dark Horse · 02-27-11, 01:16 PM

Two nationally televised games today. Both a little tricky.

LAL @ OKC
When the refs were assigned by the NBA OKC was a 1 pt fave. Now they are a 1.5 pt dog.
Zebra #1. Kevin Fehr: home faves 4.5 pts and lower 1-3 ATS, and home dogs 4-4.
Zebra #2. Steve Javie (again): home faves 4.5 pts and lower 1-5 ATS, and home dogs 6-5 ATS.
Zebra #3. Eli Roe: home faves 4.5 pts and lower 5-5 ATS, and 4-1 home dogs.

I'm passing on this one. The home fave in this range is a total of 7-13 ATS (1-3, 1-5, and 5-5), but there is no home fave anymore... The home dog is 14-11 ATS, but that may not have been the 'intent' of the NBA when the refs where assigned.

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NYK @ MIA -9.5

If line stays under 10 pts:
Zebra #1. Pat Fraher: home faves 5-9.5 pts are 10-7 ATS
Zebra #2. Monty McCutchen (again!): home faves in this range are 11-4 ATS.
Zebra #3. Josh Tiven: home faves in this range are 3-4 ATS.

MIA gets the nod at 24-15 ATS, but pass if the line closes at 10 pts or higher.

Dark Horse · 02-27-11, 04:31 PM

Third game (ESPN): ATL @ POR. No zebra edge.

So only MIA today (if line stays under 10).

cleaveland · 02-28-11, 08:23 AM

Thank you sir!

Dark Horse · 02-28-11, 08:27 PM

For what? A loss? lol

Just in case anybody may read too much into the zebras, please don't take this topic too serious. It has worked in the past, and it may work again here, but it remains only a little side angle. Nothing more.

cleaveland · 03-06-11, 11:10 AM

Trying to fill the shoes of a legend is never easy, let's see I do.

Chicago at Miami

Zebra #1. Tony Brothers home favorites 0-4.5 spread: 1-7 ats , home favorites 5-9.5 spread: 7-10 ats , home team ats 18-28-1
Zebra #2. Bob Delaney home favorites 0-4.5 spread: 4-3 ats , home favorites 5-9.5 spread: 8-5 ats , home team ats 24-22-1
Zebra #3. Scott Wall home favorites 0-4.5 spread: 4-7 ats , home favorites 5-9.5 spread: 8-11 ats , home team ats 20-24

I included home favorites 0-4.5 spread numbers just in case the closing number ends up being 4.5. These refs favor Chicago slightly, imho.

Lakers at Spurs

Zebra #1. Bennie Adams home favorites 0-4.5 spread: 3-10 ats, home team ats 21-28
Zebra #2. Leroy Richardson home favorites 0-4.5 spread: 6-6 ats, home team ats 21-27-2
Zebra #3. Bennett Salvatore home favorites 0-4.5 spread: 2-4 ats, home team ats 14-18-1

These refs favor the Lakers, imho. I wish I could offer better insight and Dark Horse-type wit but bear with me, I'm new at this. Maybe Dark Horse will show up today.

Dark Horse · 03-06-11, 12:36 PM

Thanks for keeping this alive. Was just looking at the LAL +3 as well. Looking pretty nice with combined zebras 11-20 ATS against the Spurs in this spread range.

Dark Horse · 03-06-11, 04:10 PM

Some pretty one-sided refereeing in the closing minutes of the Bulls-Heat game. Deng misses a FT and falls while trying to chase it down, and the refs give the Bulls two more FT's?! To put them up 87-86... Wow.

Meanwhile, Lakers (+3) are pummeling the Spurs in San Antonia. Up 44-20 in the 2Q. Looks like another one for the zebra angle, although this game has nothing to do with it (at least, not yet).

cleaveland · 03-08-11, 02:18 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Some pretty one-sided refereeing in the closing minutes of the Bulls-Heat game. Deng misses a FT and falls while trying to chase it down, and the refs give the Bulls two more FT's?! To put them up 87-86... Wow.

Meanwhile, Lakers (+3) are pummeling the Spurs in San Antonia. Up 44-20 in the 2Q. Looks like another one for the zebra angle, although this game has nothing to do with it (at least, not yet).

That was a ridiculous call, I'd never seen anything like that, ever.

Dark Horse · 03-08-11, 05:16 AM

Originally posted by cleaveland

That was a ridiculous call, I'd never seen anything like that, ever.

As long as the zebras are in our court. So far, so good.

Dark Horse · 03-10-11, 01:27 AM

Tonight at TNT:

LAL @ MIA
and
NY @ DAL

Is the circus coming to town? Stay tuned.

jcygts6 · 03-10-11, 01:39 AM

interested in what you have to say DH

Dark Horse · 03-10-11, 02:17 PM

The LAL @ MIA game has a 11-14 ATS edge going the Lakers way (Callahan 5-3, Guthrie 5-7, Washington 1-4).

My interest is mostly in the second game; Knicks at Dallas. We have some refs that are experts in keeping the game interesting here. Tonight's cast:

- Bennie Adams
- Kane Fitzgerald, and last but not least, the one and only:
- Bennett Salvatore

The line for the game is currently DAL -5.5. So let's look at the spread ranges 5-9.5, as well as 0-4.5.

Adams is a true animal lover who likes helping out the dogs. In spread range 5-9.5 the home faves are 6-13 ATS and the home dogs 3-1 ATS. Similar for spread range 0-4.5, where home faves are 3-11 ATS and home dogs 6-2 ATS. So for all games with spreads below double digits, the home faves are 9-24 ATS, and the home dogs 9-3 ATS.

I'm going to skip to Salvatore, because of the similar tendency. Home faves in range 5-9.5 are 3-6 ATS and home dogs 4-1 ATS. For all home faves, Salvatore is 7-15 ATS.

Fitzgerald is not on board with the above two, but won't be able to overpower them. It will just be two against one. He's 12-12 ATS for home faves below double digits, with a split of 9-7 ATS in range 5-9.5, and 3-5 in range 0-4.5.

Total for game; for home faves 5-9.5: 6-13 (Adams), 3-6 (Salvatore), 9-7 (Fitzgerald) for a combined 18-26 ATS record. This favors the Knicks. This is also supported by the 0-4.5 spread range for home faves which is: 3-11 (Adams), 2-5 (Salvatore), 3-5 (Fitzgerald) for a total of 8-21 ATS. For all home faves of less than 10 points this means the dogs walked away with the ATS win at a 47-26 pace (not adjusted for overlap where the same refs may have been on the court).

cleaveland · 03-10-11, 05:53 PM

Thank you sir.

Betcris is offering bets on free throws made for nationally televised games now, what do you think about Knicks total free throws over 19.5? The current line is over 19.5 -125 so I guess others are thinking the refs will be favoring the Knicks as you are.

Dark Horse · 03-10-11, 06:19 PM

The league average for FT's is about 24.5 per team per game (if I remember correctly). So 19.5 would be low. Knicks can draw plenty of fouls with Amare and Carmelo going to the basket.

Dark Horse · 03-10-11, 10:59 PM

Halftime in DAL, and chalking up the L. NY behind by 21 points at halftime, even though they're already 22 for 22 from the FT line. DAL is shooting lights out and is 9 for 9 from the stripe. Game not close enough for refs to influence. For some reason Dallas came out like their tail was on fire, and continued to play several gears higher than NY for the entire half, even when up by 20+ points. NY looks slow and sluggish by comparison. Too much of an intensity gap.

cleaveland · 03-11-11, 03:39 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Halftime in DAL, and chalking up the L. NY behind by 21 points at halftime, even though they're already 22 for 22 from the FT line. DAL is shooting lights out and is 9 for 9 from the stripe. Game not close enough for refs to influence. For some reason Dallas came out like their tail was on fire, and continued to play several gears higher than NY for the entire half, even when up by 20+ points. NY looks slow and sluggish by comparison. Too much of an intensity gap.

Yeah betting the free throw over/under angle might be better than the spread in these games.

JOHON8 · 03-11-11, 03:52 AM

Everyone needs to nominate this thread. Great job DH.

cleaveland · 03-11-11, 04:33 AM

Originally posted by JOHON8

Everyone needs to nominate this thread. Great job DH.

We should have a point fund to pay Dark Horse for his analyses, totally brilliant.

I'll give him two points every time he posts his analysis, that's the most I'm capable of with the rules. I hope others will do the same.

Dark Horse · 03-27-11, 02:14 PM

Tonight we have an interesting game when Dallas visits Phoenix. We know from Tim Donaghy's book that certain zebras don't like Suns owner Robert Sarver, who is very patronizing and treats refs like little kids. We also know that Mavs owner Marc Cuban is quite popular. Against that background, consider the following.

The zebras for tonight are Violet Palmer, Scott Foster, and Tony Brothers. Here's the record for their L10 games with either of these teams:

Palmer: PHX 1-8-1 ATS, and DAL 6-3-1 ATS.
Foster: PHX 2-7-1 ATS, and DAL 6-2-2 ATS.
Brothers: PHX 5-4-1 ATS, and DAL 5-5 ATS.

Brothers is neutral. But the other two combine for a record that has PHX 3-15-2 ATS and DAL 12-5-3 ATS.
It could be coincidence that PHX beats the spread here at a 16.7% ratio and DAL beats it at a 70.6% ratio. But I wouldn't bet on it.

(use with caution).

JOHON8 · 03-27-11, 05:45 PM

Interesting to see any of these signs during the game, thanks for the heads up.

Dark Horse · 03-28-11, 02:57 AM

Dallas (-2.5) 91-83. Another cover for the zebras.

Qtip · 03-28-11, 04:15 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Tonight we have an interesting game when Dallas visits Phoenix. We know from Tim Donaghy's book that certain zebras don't like Suns owner Robert Sarver, who is very patronizing and treats refs like little kids. We also know that Mavs owner Marc Cuban is quite popular. Against that background, consider the following.

The zebras for tonight are Violet Palmer, Scott Foster, and Tony Brothers. Here's the record for their L10 games with either of these teams:

Palmer: PHX 1-8-1 ATS, and DAL 6-3-1 ATS.
Foster: PHX 2-7-1 ATS, and DAL 6-2-2 ATS.
Brothers: PHX 5-4-1 ATS, and DAL 5-5 ATS.

Brothers is neutral. But the other two combine for a record that has PHX 3-15-2 ATS and DAL 12-5-3 ATS.
It could be coincidence that PHX beats the spread here at a 16.7% ratio and DAL beats it at a 70.6% ratio. But I wouldn't bet on it.

(use with caution).

Thanks Dark Horse, love your writeups.