First: I love this forum and the combination of fun, smarts, and balls that is laid right out there for anybody who wants to post or lurk. It's a great group of like-minded folks, getting bigger and bettter daily, it seems.
I thought about putting this in a new thread titled "I Am Not a Tout"
Because I'm not. Not a tout, not a professional, not a full-timer. I have no inside information, no locks, no steam games, no bailouts, no sure-fire way for anybody to crush their man (or woman, or computer screen).
In only have a strong interest in this stuff, lots of mental energy, and I hope some analytical ability.
I also know from success in other pursuits that emerging on top in anything over the long-term requires constantly choosing research and preparation over instant gratification, and constantly looking as aggressively as possible for new and better ways to think about the problem and new and better ways to use preparation and research when the time comes.
Reading this you might say: here's another thing you're not, Jay Edgar -- a gambler.
Maybe partly true, but not completely. The gambler still comes out. (Not nearly as much as twenty years ago, but enough.) You can't keep him reigned in all the time.
But you can't let him run wild, either --you are surely dead that way. I think the more prepared you are, the more you have tried to think about this stuff from every possible angle, and the more experience you gain at keeping the gambler reigned in (even to the dramatic extent of outright passing on games or entire cards when things do not feel right), the easier it becomes to sense when is the right time to let him out, and when is the wrong time.
Sometimes the right play is no play. More often than we would like, in fact. Certainly more often than we would like after some tough losses, the right play is no play.
I think the BMs are doing a pretty damn good job in the NBA lately. They are helped by the fact that there are too many X factors on any given night and, truly, anything can happen. I think the lines tonight are pretty tight -- make that very tight.
I don't know what to play. Although my posted picks were a net loser yesterday, in real terms I had my best day in a month (thanks in no small part to the big public Sunday line swings creating some arbitrage that ended up with a big side/middle combo. Also the good day was due once again to you fabulous NCAAB whiz kids.)
Can it possibly be that after your best day in a month the best play is no play? I'm grappling with that, but so far it seems a good day just to lean, and to listen to the other folks here. Instead of picks, here are a few things that might get overlooked:
MIA at CHA. Even though they are only 3-3 ATS since the ASB, Charlotte has had at least one shockingly good half in each of those games, typically the first half. Maybe they win a half SU tonight -- they are sure to be dogs in each.
SAC at NJ. Every game counts for SAC, still 2.5 out of the playoffs. NJ seems comfy in the #3 spot, with PHI having fallen back again yesterday. NJ is having a tough time scoring points these days, even against some medicore defenses, which SAC is not. The pre-game talk is Artest v. Carter, which may mean Carter goes solo even more, and that is already irking RJ.
PHX at NOK. NOK is an absolute wildcard coming off a long rest and that humiliation in the 2H at LAC. They should be ready to play, and OK crowd should be fired up. (NOK goes back to NO for first time later this week.) Normal team would let down in PHX's spot here, but Suns are so explosive that even if they only really play for a quarter, NOK could be in trouble. Pre-ASB, as DH notes, PHX was actually better without rest.
MEM at DEN. Nugs culd be ready to roll. They are getting settled into a groove post-trade, and their last three games have been outstanding. (Even the loss at HOU came against a Rockets team that had VanGundy uncharacteristically raving about their play.) MEM however is developing more of a killer road instinct, though this will be a tough one --BTB in the altitude. But the Clips, unfortunately, did not push them too hard last night. I think this would be a fantastic spot for DEN as a dog or -2 -- unfortunately the BMs did not make that mistake.
ORL at UTH. Kirilenko is playing out of control and ignoring Sloan's defensive schemes; Okur is sulking; Sloan has had it with them for the umpteenth time -- benching them last night in favor of the OTHER guys that he had benched earlier. If it goes bad for UTH tonight it has a chance to snowball. On the other hand, ORL is hurting, out of gas, and without anything to play for in the last game of a road trip (remember how NOK handled that.) Maybe the least likely result is Utah wins a close one -- they either cover or lose decisively outright.
SAN at LAX. I think the line and the total are right on the money. SAN is having its hands full with quality teams, and Lakers have done just enough (beaten DET and SAC -- the team they really have to worry about) to maybe, maybe qualify as one. Four of last five SA road wins have been by 4 points or less.
I thought about putting this in a new thread titled "I Am Not a Tout"
Because I'm not. Not a tout, not a professional, not a full-timer. I have no inside information, no locks, no steam games, no bailouts, no sure-fire way for anybody to crush their man (or woman, or computer screen).
In only have a strong interest in this stuff, lots of mental energy, and I hope some analytical ability.
I also know from success in other pursuits that emerging on top in anything over the long-term requires constantly choosing research and preparation over instant gratification, and constantly looking as aggressively as possible for new and better ways to think about the problem and new and better ways to use preparation and research when the time comes.
Reading this you might say: here's another thing you're not, Jay Edgar -- a gambler.
Maybe partly true, but not completely. The gambler still comes out. (Not nearly as much as twenty years ago, but enough.) You can't keep him reigned in all the time.
But you can't let him run wild, either --you are surely dead that way. I think the more prepared you are, the more you have tried to think about this stuff from every possible angle, and the more experience you gain at keeping the gambler reigned in (even to the dramatic extent of outright passing on games or entire cards when things do not feel right), the easier it becomes to sense when is the right time to let him out, and when is the wrong time.
Sometimes the right play is no play. More often than we would like, in fact. Certainly more often than we would like after some tough losses, the right play is no play.
I think the BMs are doing a pretty damn good job in the NBA lately. They are helped by the fact that there are too many X factors on any given night and, truly, anything can happen. I think the lines tonight are pretty tight -- make that very tight.
I don't know what to play. Although my posted picks were a net loser yesterday, in real terms I had my best day in a month (thanks in no small part to the big public Sunday line swings creating some arbitrage that ended up with a big side/middle combo. Also the good day was due once again to you fabulous NCAAB whiz kids.)
Can it possibly be that after your best day in a month the best play is no play? I'm grappling with that, but so far it seems a good day just to lean, and to listen to the other folks here. Instead of picks, here are a few things that might get overlooked:
MIA at CHA. Even though they are only 3-3 ATS since the ASB, Charlotte has had at least one shockingly good half in each of those games, typically the first half. Maybe they win a half SU tonight -- they are sure to be dogs in each.
SAC at NJ. Every game counts for SAC, still 2.5 out of the playoffs. NJ seems comfy in the #3 spot, with PHI having fallen back again yesterday. NJ is having a tough time scoring points these days, even against some medicore defenses, which SAC is not. The pre-game talk is Artest v. Carter, which may mean Carter goes solo even more, and that is already irking RJ.
PHX at NOK. NOK is an absolute wildcard coming off a long rest and that humiliation in the 2H at LAC. They should be ready to play, and OK crowd should be fired up. (NOK goes back to NO for first time later this week.) Normal team would let down in PHX's spot here, but Suns are so explosive that even if they only really play for a quarter, NOK could be in trouble. Pre-ASB, as DH notes, PHX was actually better without rest.
MEM at DEN. Nugs culd be ready to roll. They are getting settled into a groove post-trade, and their last three games have been outstanding. (Even the loss at HOU came against a Rockets team that had VanGundy uncharacteristically raving about their play.) MEM however is developing more of a killer road instinct, though this will be a tough one --BTB in the altitude. But the Clips, unfortunately, did not push them too hard last night. I think this would be a fantastic spot for DEN as a dog or -2 -- unfortunately the BMs did not make that mistake.
ORL at UTH. Kirilenko is playing out of control and ignoring Sloan's defensive schemes; Okur is sulking; Sloan has had it with them for the umpteenth time -- benching them last night in favor of the OTHER guys that he had benched earlier. If it goes bad for UTH tonight it has a chance to snowball. On the other hand, ORL is hurting, out of gas, and without anything to play for in the last game of a road trip (remember how NOK handled that.) Maybe the least likely result is Utah wins a close one -- they either cover or lose decisively outright.
SAN at LAX. I think the line and the total are right on the money. SAN is having its hands full with quality teams, and Lakers have done just enough (beaten DET and SAC -- the team they really have to worry about) to maybe, maybe qualify as one. Four of last five SA road wins have been by 4 points or less.
