Tool's NBA lines 4.13

[tool21]

* denotes back to back - injuries and situations not included
First number is book opener - number in () is my projection
======================================== ========
Miami 178 (186.90)
Cleveland -18 (-6.79)
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San Antonio 191.5 (193.16)
LA Lakers -6 (-1.24)
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Toronto 186 (186.58)
Detroit -6.5 (-5.03)
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Orlando -4 (-18.36)
Chicago 203.5 (204.22)
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Houston 209 (201.64)
*Denver -6 (+3.4)
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*Dallas -9.5 (-10.38)
Seattle 198.5 (196.58)
======================================== =======



1. Houston +7 (on the buy)

This Denver team still doesn't impress me at all I don't understand why this line is so high, maybe because it's a 'must win' for them. Must win or not, Houston isn't just going to roll over and let Denver win. Houston has the biggest active winning streak going in the NBA with 5 straight wins AND 5 straight covers mainly because of the solid play of their bench. Houston is still jockeying for position with Phoenix and I can't see them just not showing up for this game. Denver is in the 2nd half of a back to back so that can't help too much either. The only concern i have for this game is Shane Battier being questionable. I have a value difference of 12 from books to my line and even if Battier doesn't play he's not worth 12 points. Like i said before, Houston's bench has been stepping up. I think it's worth the bet. Just too many points for a coin flip game. Don't be surprised if Houston wins outright.

[mundane]

dude we all can see what the lines are.. but why do u include them on ur posts? are those different from the books? or are those ur calculations?

[tool21]

dude we all can see what the lines are.. but why do u include them on ur posts? are those different from the books? or are those ur calculations?

Sorry, i quit posting the meaning behind the lines about a week ago. The first numbers are the books openers and the numbers in parenthesis are my calculated lines. I'll edit it to make this clear.

[tool21]

2. Orlando -3

Orlando's recent lack of intensity makes this game a good bet and here's why. One of Orlando's goals before the beginning of the season was to get to 50 wins. Their remaining games are Chicago, Atlanta, Washington in that order. Orlando President Vander Wiede wants his club to finish with 50 wins tonight so they don't have to worry about hitting that mark their final two games against teams still competing for the playoffs. They want to do it now and go to cruise control the rest of the season not worrying about possibly playing starters to hit that mark. This line is a joke and the reason why is because Orlando has nothing to play for, right? Their playing for that 50th win and their best shot of getting there is tonight beating the Bulls.

[mundane]

i see. big discrepancy on the cavs. ur not on it?

[tool21]

i see. big discrepancy on the cavs. ur not on it?

I thought hard about it and decided no. I don't like betting on teams with a lot of injuries because it throws off the projected lines.

[tool21]

Just an update, currently 10-2 on sides. Let's get a sweep, huh?

[moneyboy]

Great writeup. Continue the hard work and let the $$$ pile up.

[tool21]

I'm going to try this Totals thing again.....

Playing this 1/4 of what i play all the others. This is just a confidence booster for me and my shi tty totals.

3. Denver under 211

I have the total at 201.5 and both these teams have been playing the tune of the under recently. Let's see if i can get this one.

[tool21]

WInner Winner chicken dinner

1-0 so far. Brings the total spread record to 11-2

[tool21]

Glad i picked the team that shot below 35%......

1-1 with a small total winner. Very small profit day.