Best Bets 3/3

[bigboydan]

starting this thread for ILL.

Who do you guys like for today?

I will track everybodies plays, so please make sure you post a line.

Also, I don't mind if you post parlays, teasers, or round robins, but these plays will not be reflected in the standings.

[JayEgdarWho]

based on last 10 games:
PHI--2.4--WAS
SAC--0.9--ATL
NY--1.5--CHI
BOS--3.0--IND
HOU--1.9--DEN
DAL-- 5.3--CHA
PHX--11.1--ORL
LAC--2.1--UTH
DET--2.3--SEA
GS--1.7--LAX

[Dark Horse]

PHX 1H -7 (or whatever line).

PHX only needs one half against most opponents. Best half per game since start of February: +12, +24, +21, +9, +32, +24, +15, +18, 0 (loss!), +15, +21.
Seven of these strongest halves were 1H. So it pays to play 1H, and if that wager loses follow that up with a 2H wager.

[imgv94]

Dark Horse=Thanks again for showcasing Chic 2nd half.Just One Unit
on Phoenix 1st half?? Let me know?

JayEdgar= may you
explain those numbers again please

[pags11]

Seaton Hall +11.5 (+104)
Bradley -2 (-102)
Delaware +8.5 (-101)

[Dark Horse]

img, glad you got that play. If only they were all that easy.

1 unit for me on PHX. Probably 1.5 units for 2H if 1H doesn't win.
ORL did beat PHX in January, so they could match up pretty good.

[imgv94]

1*PENN -6.5 +110
1*Seton Hall +11.5 +104

will be adding many more plays.

[imgv94]

2* Bradley -1.5

[Illusion]

Thanks for starting the thread dan.

[Dark Horse]

Going back to mid December, DAL in 1H without rest, most recent first: -10, +2 (W), -1, -3, +3 (W), 0, -6. The two wins were when DAL was not the favorite (one dog, one pk). Clearly, they don't like playing without rest, and only get up for a worthy opponent. For full games DAL is 3-7-3 ATS on no rest, and 0-2-1 ATS on no rest from away to home.

Today DAL will probably have to cover 7 pts in the 1H. You know how often they have done that this season in twelve tries without rest? Never.

Not a play yet. But a definite lean. Interested in your thoughts.

[imgv94]

2*Bradley -1.5
1*PENN -6.5 +110
1*Seton Hall +11.5 +104

adding:
1* N.Iowa Pk ML +126

N.Iowa and SW MO St are playing on a neutral
field. These two teams are so evenly matched
on every stat except one big one.

N.Iowa gives up 58.6ppg on road
SW MO St gives up 71.8ppg on road.

hmmm

[imgv94]

2* Delaware +9

[imgv94]

1* New Orleans -2 -102

[Winston Smith]

N.Iowa and SW MO St are playing on a neutral
field. These two teams are so evenly matched
on every stat except one big one.

I'm only venturing an educated guess here, but I suspect the Saint Louis crowd will be partial to Missouri State. Not saying to ignore the numbers, just a thought.

[imgv94]

You are right. I am tired. Well maybe the Defense will still come
through. I am getting ML +126 which is value I think cause I
can see N.Iowa winning this.

[shantystar]

imgv you are great capr .
ucla are behind 11 points at half time

31-20,
but you tipped bet in running for ucla -3 and they succeeded.
greeat.

[shantystar]

new orleans -2

[JayEgdarWho]

Dark Horse=Thanks again for showcasing Chic 2nd half.Just One Unit
on Phoenix 1st half?? Let me know?

JayEdgar= may you
explain those numbers again please

The last explanation was way too long, but it's in the Best Bets 2/28 thread toward the top. I know ILL and some of the other kids could link it right in here, but that appears to be beyond me.

im, keep going baby -- you've got a world of talent and a you are a blast to read.

Don't burn out on us!!!

[Jack]

Here it is:


Sure -- and apologies to anybody who got the concept already or who doesn't care, which would be completely understandable.

I referred to these spreads in a post right after the ASB and couple folks asked if I wouldn't mind posting them. This line is just a homemade number, derived from a set of power ratings that looks at the last 10 games only. I give each team a number, from 0 to 100, for each game, using a formula that accounts for score margin, strength of opponent and home court. The numbers in the thread are obviously not the power rankings, but the point spreads derived from the power rankings, which are dervied from each team's last 10 game scores of 0-100. NOK's power ranking for the last 10 games (50.3) is slightly higher than SEA's (43.3). Converted to a pointspread, that makes NOK a slight favorite on a neutral court and a half point dog on SEA's court. I've used a couple of different sets of HCA numbers lately -- one of them is this

http://teamrankings.com/nba/17powerratings.php3

although it is pretty extreme.

I don't myself, and don't recommend, making plays blindly based on the gap between this line and the actual line -- because NBA games in particular are crawling with X factors, and because I don't claim that my power rankings are anything special or nearly finely tuned enough.

It's just a guideline to provide some sense of how well a team is actually playing lately, which I think we can lose sight of trying to track 30 teams and having one particular recent outing burning in our memory most of the time.

I played GS last night not so much because this tool had them at 6 points over UTH and you could get 2.5, but rather because they had good power numbers in recent games even though their record was poor -- they were playing good teams tough, in tough situations (mostly on the road) and this was a drop in class. I also thought that they had hit bottom with the 75 point effort in SA and were shaking some things up and would come out blazing last night. (Thus making the over a play as well)

BUT THE UTAH MF JAZZ did me in again, and for the last time -- (see im's helpful oath in the 2-27 Best Bets section, which I have taken)

Sorry for the length of this. I debated PM'ng you but thought this was worth doing -- once.

There are lots of great cappers on this board, many many of them better at this than I am. And lots of them, especially some of the NBA cappers, provide GREAT writeups. I rely on my brothers as much or more than these numbers, and recommend that course to anyone.

[JayEgdarWho]

What a thrill for me to re-live the UTH part.

Seriously, Jack, thanks for going through the trouble of the cut and paste.

[Jack]

What a thrill for me to re-live the UTH part.

oops, yeah I guess I didn't need to copy the whole post.

[El Guapo]

9-13

1 unit, Seton Hall, +11.5 (-103)
1 unit, Tenn Tech, +1.5 (+103)

Paul

[adriano]

early thoughts:

Celtics +114
Hawks +151
Knicks +126
Magic/Suns U 210 +110

what do you think guys?

[BigD]

delware+8 2units
Appalachian St. +6.5 2units

Adding

Indiana St +10 2units

[JayEgdarWho]

early thoughts:

Celtics +114
Hawks +151
Knicks +126
Magic/Suns U 210 +110

what do you think guys?

1-yes, though +3 or more makes me feel better
2-ditto
3-ditto
4-wanna hear what DH thinks

[presley177]

3* Coll Charleston -6 1/2
3* Towson State -1 +105
1* Cornell +7 -102
2* Penn -5 1/2
1* Evansville +11 1/2 -105
1* SW Missouri ST. -2 -105
1* Georgia State/Towson State OVER 139 1/2

[presley177]

early thoughts:

Celtics +114
Hawks +151
Knicks +126
Magic/Suns U 210 +110

what do you think guys?

1. good
2. good
3. bad
4. bad

but then again I suck at nba

[mahony]

st peter's -5.5
wichita state -10

[Wassymac]

2* Bradley -2
2* SW M. St. -2

[BigD]

Tenn Chatt +6.5 2units
Northeastern-15 1unit

Adding Flordia Int. +2.5 2units

[dave11486]

*3 Atl +3.5 (-105)

[dave11486]

Yo ill did you ever post yesterdays results?

PS Good Luck Tonight!

[Razz]

1* Missouri St. -2
1* Towson pk

[Winston Smith]

Oh, WTH, I'll give it a whirl.

Bradley -2
Missouri State -2

[Wassymac]

*0.5 Adding Bradley/Creighton Over 132 +102