30K NBA System

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  • 30K Millionaire
    SBR MVP
    • 08-10-10
    • 2003
    #1
    30K NBA System
    I will be posting my NBA system picks here for the rest of the season. I developed a regression model a couple weeks ago and have been using it to select NBA ATS picks and totals. It has gone 14-9 so far. I know this is a small sample period but let's see how it does moving forward.
    Tags: None
    • 30K Millionaire
      SBR MVP
      • 08-10-10
      • 2003
      #2
      All bets are to win 1 unit.

      Two system picks today:
      Twolves/Pacers Under 218 (-110)
      Clippers/Cavs Under 206.5 (-105)
        Comment
        • 30K Millionaire
          SBR MVP
          • 08-10-10
          • 2003
          #3
          Adding
          Suns +6 (-105)
            Comment
            • 30K Millionaire
              SBR MVP
              • 08-10-10
              • 2003
              #4
              1-2

              Twolves/Pacers Under 218 (-110) L
              Clippers/Cavs Under 206.5 (-105) L
              Suns +6 (-105) W
                Comment
                • 30K Millionaire
                  SBR MVP
                  • 08-10-10
                  • 2003
                  #5
                  2/13/11

                  Lakers +1.5 (-105)
                    Comment
                    • 30K Millionaire
                      SBR MVP
                      • 08-10-10
                      • 2003
                      #6
                      2/13/11

                      Adding
                      Clippers Under 208.5 (-105)
                      Cavs Under 206.5 (-105)

                      I just noticed Lang is on the Lakers so looks like I'm screwed now.
                        Comment
                        • 30K Millionaire
                          SBR MVP
                          • 08-10-10
                          • 2003
                          #7
                          Final Card

                          Lakers +1.5 (-105)
                          Nuggets +3 (-107)

                          Raptors Under 208.5 (-105)
                          Cavs Under 206.5 (-105)

                          There was a lot of movement on the Cavs Under. I wish I locked it in last night, but I like it as low as 206. I have the Lakers and Nuggets winning outright, but I'll take the points. Good luck today.
                            Comment
                            • 30K Millionaire
                              SBR MVP
                              • 08-10-10
                              • 2003
                              #8
                              1-3 (-2.17 units)

                              Lakers +1.5 (-105) L
                              Nuggets +3 (-107) L

                              Raptors Under 208.5 (-105) W
                              Cavs Under 206.5 (-105) L

                              Nuggets win the award for most pathetic 4th quarter performance
                                Comment
                                • allison13
                                  SBR Hustler
                                  • 02-16-10
                                  • 71
                                  #9
                                  GL with your system
                                    Comment
                                    • 30K Millionaire
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 08-10-10
                                      • 2003
                                      #10
                                      One system play today

                                      Clippers +6 (-108)
                                        Comment
                                        • 30K Millionaire
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 08-10-10
                                          • 2003
                                          #11
                                          0-1 last night (-1.08 units)

                                          Clippers crapped the bed 4th quarter
                                            Comment
                                            • 30K Millionaire
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 08-10-10
                                              • 2003
                                              #12
                                              There are a couple totals that fit the system today. The spread lines are too sharp IMO and don't fit the system.

                                              76ers Over 190.5 (-109)
                                                Comment
                                                • 30K Millionaire
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 08-10-10
                                                  • 2003
                                                  #13
                                                  Adding

                                                  Bulls Over 183 (-105)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • 30K Millionaire
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 08-10-10
                                                      • 2003
                                                      #14
                                                      Adding

                                                      Pacers Under 206 (-110)
                                                        Comment
                                                        • 30K Millionaire
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 08-10-10
                                                          • 2003
                                                          #15
                                                          2/15 Final Card
                                                          76ers Over 190.5 (-109)
                                                          Bulls Over 183 (-105)
                                                          Pacers Under 206 (-110)
                                                            Comment
                                                            • 30K Millionaire
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 08-10-10
                                                              • 2003
                                                              #16
                                                              2-1 +0.9 units
                                                              Take it to the bank

                                                              76ers Over 190.5 (-109) W
                                                              Bulls Over 183 (-105) W
                                                              Pacers Under 206 (-110) L
                                                                Comment
                                                                • 30K Millionaire
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 08-10-10
                                                                  • 2003
                                                                  #17
                                                                  2/16/11
                                                                  Big Card Today

                                                                  Lakers -11 (-105)
                                                                  Golden State Warriors +5.5 (-109)
                                                                  Pistons Under 197.5 (-105)
                                                                  Celtics Over 185 (-105)
                                                                  Lakers Under 203.5 (-110)

                                                                  Leans
                                                                  Bucks Under 201 (-105)
                                                                  Mavs Under 200 (-103)
                                                                  Magic Under 201.5 (-105)
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • bozeman
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-11-09
                                                                      • 2162
                                                                      #18
                                                                      what do you mean by regression, what's regressing i mean?
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        • 30K Millionaire
                                                                          SBR MVP
                                                                          • 08-10-10
                                                                          • 2003
                                                                          #19
                                                                          Originally posted by bozeman
                                                                          what do you mean by regression, what's regressing i mean?
                                                                          Regression is an approach to modeling the relationship between a variable y (example- pts scored) and one or more variables denoted X (example FG %, TO, Avg pts scored,...etc).
                                                                            Comment
                                                                            • 30K Millionaire
                                                                              SBR MVP
                                                                              • 08-10-10
                                                                              • 2003
                                                                              #20
                                                                              Lakers -11 (-105) L
                                                                              Golden State Warriors +5.5 (-109) W
                                                                              Pistons Under 197.5 (-105) L
                                                                              Celtics Over 185 (-105) L
                                                                              Lakers Under 203.5 (-110) W

                                                                              Leans
                                                                              Bucks Under 201 (-105) W
                                                                              Mavs Under 200 (-103) L
                                                                              Magic Under 201.5 (-105) W

                                                                              2-3 system picks
                                                                              2-1 leans
                                                                              4-4 overall

                                                                              Should've just stuck with my leans!
                                                                                Comment
                                                                                • 30K Millionaire
                                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                                  • 08-10-10
                                                                                  • 2003
                                                                                  #21
                                                                                  2/17

                                                                                  Spurs +2 (-105)
                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                    • 30K Millionaire
                                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                                      • 08-10-10
                                                                                      • 2003
                                                                                      #22
                                                                                      2/17
                                                                                      0-1 -1.05 units
                                                                                      Spurs +2 (-105) L
                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                        • 30K Millionaire
                                                                                          SBR MVP
                                                                                          • 08-10-10
                                                                                          • 2003
                                                                                          #23
                                                                                          The season finally picks up again today. There are a few system plays. Good luck.

                                                                                          Raptors+7 (-107)
                                                                                          Wizards Under 208.5 (-105)
                                                                                          Lakers Over 189 (-110)
                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                            • BiePoker
                                                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                                                              • 07-30-10
                                                                                              • 292
                                                                                              #24
                                                                                              good luck with your plays
                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                • 30K Millionaire
                                                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                                                  • 08-10-10
                                                                                                  • 2003
                                                                                                  #25
                                                                                                  0-3 (-3.22 units)

                                                                                                  Raptors+7 (-107) L
                                                                                                  Wizards Under 208.5 (-105) L
                                                                                                  Lakers Over 189 (-110) L
                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                    • 30K Millionaire
                                                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                                                      • 08-10-10
                                                                                                      • 2003
                                                                                                      #26
                                                                                                      2/23/11

                                                                                                      Rockets -5.5 (-108)
                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                        • 30K Millionaire
                                                                                                          SBR MVP
                                                                                                          • 08-10-10
                                                                                                          • 2003
                                                                                                          #27
                                                                                                          0-1 -1.08 units

                                                                                                          Rockets -5.5 (-108)
                                                                                                          missed by a half pt...
                                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                                            • 30K Millionaire
                                                                                                              SBR MVP
                                                                                                              • 08-10-10
                                                                                                              • 2003
                                                                                                              #28
                                                                                                              Here goes nothing

                                                                                                              Nuggets +4.5 (-102)
                                                                                                              Bulls Over 192 (-103)
                                                                                                              Nuggets Over 204 (-103)
                                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                                • spankie
                                                                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                                  • 02-10-11
                                                                                                                  • 9992
                                                                                                                  #29
                                                                                                                  i like the overs.. dont like the nuggets. gl sir.
                                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                                    • 30K Millionaire
                                                                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                                                                      • 08-10-10
                                                                                                                      • 2003
                                                                                                                      #30
                                                                                                                      The ones I felt good about lost, and the one I didnt' like won. That's how it usually works out. The nugs had the highest system score though. Overs were close to leans.

                                                                                                                      1-2 -1.06 units
                                                                                                                      Nuggets W
                                                                                                                      Bulls Over L
                                                                                                                      Nuggets Over L
                                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                                        • 30K Millionaire
                                                                                                                          SBR MVP
                                                                                                                          • 08-10-10
                                                                                                                          • 2003
                                                                                                                          #31
                                                                                                                          2/25/11

                                                                                                                          Jazz +6 (-109)
                                                                                                                          OKC +6.5 (-108)
                                                                                                                          Knicks -7.5 (-108)

                                                                                                                          Bobcats Under 201.5 (-105)
                                                                                                                          Heat Under 204 (-105)
                                                                                                                          Pacers Under 208 (-110)
                                                                                                                          Lakers Over 193 (-105)

                                                                                                                          It also likes Nuggets +6.5, but I'm leaving that out due to back-to-back
                                                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                                                            • 30K Millionaire
                                                                                                                              SBR MVP
                                                                                                                              • 08-10-10
                                                                                                                              • 2003
                                                                                                                              #32
                                                                                                                              3-4 -1.26 units

                                                                                                                              Jazz +6 (-109) W
                                                                                                                              OKC +6.5 (-108) L
                                                                                                                              Knicks -7.5 (-108) L
                                                                                                                              Bobcats Under 201.5 (-105) L
                                                                                                                              Heat Under 204 (-105) L
                                                                                                                              Pacers Under 208 (-110) W
                                                                                                                              Lakers Over 193 (-105) W

                                                                                                                              It also likes Nuggets +6.5 (lean) W
                                                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                                                • 30K Millionaire
                                                                                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                  • 08-10-10
                                                                                                                                  • 2003
                                                                                                                                  #33
                                                                                                                                  At the moment the system is not working out too well. It probably needs some fine tuning. I'll continue to post the plays for monitoring purposes.
                                                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                                                    • 30K Millionaire
                                                                                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                      • 08-10-10
                                                                                                                                      • 2003
                                                                                                                                      #34
                                                                                                                                      2/28/11

                                                                                                                                      System picks for today are:
                                                                                                                                      Wizards Under 195.5 (-110)
                                                                                                                                      Kings Under 206.5 (-105)
                                                                                                                                      Nets Under 205 (-108)
                                                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                                                        • 30K Millionaire
                                                                                                                                          SBR MVP
                                                                                                                                          • 08-10-10
                                                                                                                                          • 2003
                                                                                                                                          #35
                                                                                                                                          2-1 +0.92 units

                                                                                                                                          Wizards Under 195.5 W
                                                                                                                                          Kings Under 206.5 W
                                                                                                                                          Nets Under 205 L

                                                                                                                                          Nets game went to OT and we still almost had the Under. Oh well you can't cap overtimes...
                                                                                                                                            Comment
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