Research model predictions

maximus_sun · 02-09-11, 06:22 PM

model 2

ORL 97.0412234
PHIL 94.7526738

NEORL 102.8739401
NETS 90.97300319

MIL 105.2169381
WASH 91.05454545

DET 104.0595884
CLEV 95.9809375

SPURS 105.1511064
TOR 96.19582899

CHAR 98.35210117
IND 94.35927835

CLIP 108.1222339
KNIKS 99.44802432

CHIC 105.6680564
UTAH 92.7473262

DALL 104.4808568
SAC 92.49233161

DEN 108.4863298
GOLD 105.0375514

vyomguy · 02-09-11, 06:39 PM

both models predict clips beating knicks?

maximus_sun · 02-09-11, 06:43 PM

Yup... That's wat the numbers say..

maximus_sun · 02-09-11, 06:44 PM

I went with under on tht in case

vyomguy · 02-09-11, 06:52 PM

both models predict the same winners in all games...just the difference in spreads.

maximus_sun · 02-09-11, 07:06 PM

yea both models are initially controlled by pace with which they tend to play.. i will tweak them based on the results... as of till today came 70% right... lets see... its jus V1.1 :P

vyomguy · 02-09-11, 07:10 PM

70% is tough...you are over-fitting your model. Tough to find a model which hits more then 55% long term in NBA....unless you play quarters and halves. I have couple of models for halves which hit around 55%-58%.

Good Luck on v2.0

maximus_sun · 02-10-11, 02:28 PM

yay

maximus_sun · 02-10-11, 02:34 PM

model 2
predictions final score my plays result
ORL 97.0412234 99 PHIL +4 under 199 push n win
PHIL 94.7526738 95

NEORL 102.8739401 101 over 182.5 win
NETS 90.97300319 103

MIL 105.2169381 85 over 182.5 win
WASH 91.05454545 100

DET 104.0595884 103 det +3 win
CLEV 95.9809375 94

SPURS 105.1511064 111 over 199 win
TOR 96.19582899 100

CHAR 98.35210117 103 char +4 win
IND 94.35927835 104

CLIP 108.1222339 116 clipps +8 i can say told u so :P win
KNIKS 99.44802432 108

CHIC 105.6680564 91 chi +3 win
UTAH 92.7473262 86

DALL 104.4808568 102 dall -3 lost
SAC 92.49233161 100

DEN 108.4863298 114 under 217 lost
GOLD 105.0375514 116

yes, i teased them spreads a lil when i placed bets but hey 7/9 returns... im still under trail runs... my calculator shows 7/9 = 77.777%

i agree with you on the over fitting... my v2.0 is to predict by quarters.. how was ur day

maximus_sun · 02-11-11, 06:16 PM

model 2
NJ 97.27445946
CHAR 98.23021288

MINN 109.0145356
IND 97.24086844

SPURS 97.67361111
PHIL 96.33561644

NEWORL 84.7871074
ORL 97.45275848

PORT 97.95125261
TOR 102.5544262

CLIPPS 100.8620118
CLEV 101.3801108

MIAMI 97.57128713
DET 95.06141479

MIL 95.44217592
MEM 95.12664313

LAK 98.89066937
KNICKS 103.6197662

PHO 97.86300247
UTAH 100.5695207

maximus_sun · 02-11-11, 06:17 PM

model 1

NJ 97.27445946
CHAR 98.23021288

MINN 109.0145356
IND 97.24086844

SPURS 97.67361111
PHIL 96.33561644

NEWORL 84.7871074
ORL 97.45275848

PORT 97.95125261
TOR 102.5544262

CLIPPS 100.8620118
CLEV 101.3801108

MIAMI 97.57128713
DET 95.06141479

MIL 95.44217592
MEM 95.12664313

LAK 98.89066937
KNICKS 103.6197662

PHO 97.86300247
UTAH 100.5695207

bol

maximus_sun · 02-23-11, 05:27 PM

NBA[701] WASHINGTON
+11½-150 (B+2)

NBA[701] WASHINGTON v PHILADELPHIA
o196-150 (B+2)

NBA[703] CHICAGO v TORONTO
o196½-150 (B+2)

NBA[708] HOUSTON v CLEVELAND
u214½-150 (B+2)

NBA[709] SACRAMENTO
+16-150 (B+2)

NBA[709] SACRAMENTO v ORLANDO
o202½-150 (B+2)

NBA[716] LA CLIPPERS v NEW ORLEANS
u193-150 (B+2)

NBA[717] OKLAHOMA CITY
+9-150 (B+2)

NBA[721] ATLANTA v PHOENIX
o199-150 (B+2)

CBB[756] PROVIDENCE
+6½-150 (B+2)

NHL[54] BUFFALO
-160