Hitting high over/unders

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  • tab
    SBR MVP
    • 10-15-07
    • 1106

    #1
    Hitting high over/unders
    10 unit play for SUnday (nuggets at sonics)

    Nuggets team total Under 121.5

    This is the same bet I had Saturday night when they played the kings (I took the nuggets Under 121). The nuggets are capable of scoring more than 120 points if the schedule is in their favor. The nuggets did score over 120 points against the suns earlier in the week. The nuggets and suns were playing back to back games against each other. THe suns do not play good defense and especially if they have back to back games. THe Kings played at Denver tonight and defeated them 118-115. I think it is diffiult to score in the 120's unless a game goes into overtime. On Friday, I took the Warriors team total Under 120.5 and they scored 117 points in that game. The secret here is to take the favorite team's team total under like I did with the warriors Under 120.5 on Firday night and the Nuggets Under 121 on Saturday night.
    The nuggets will be a little fatigued after losing to the Sacramento Kings tonight. Tommorrow the nuggets are playing at Seattle and the last time the nuggets scorched the sonics for 168 points. Seattle has given up more than 120 points 8 times this season. the nuggets have scored more than 120 only 8 times. Playing back to back games (one at home and next on the road), will not help the nuggets to go over the team total. The sonics probably did not forget how bad the nuggets beat them the last two times. I get the feeling that both teams will slow down the pace of the game for different reasons. The nuggets played Saturday night and lost an uptempo game vs the kings. The Sonics will slow it down not to get blown out again. Betting on high team totals (usually betting on the under of the favorite) represents value for bettors. The Over/Unders are inflated because the betting public likes to bet on the favorites and the overs. I have been looking at this as an alternative on betting over unders. I welcome the feedback if anyone has any insight on betting team totals.
  • unde0087
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 03-27-08
    • 28952

    #2
    I did the same thing with Sacramento last season. Their team over/under was always set way too high. I will go with you and see what happens. GL
    Comment
    • BigOrangeTitans
      SBR MVP
      • 11-23-07
      • 4504

      #3
      Good luck Tab, I'm on the under 229 pretty big, so i hope we win

      Denver put up 160 last time against Seattle, andthats why this line is so high.
      Comment
      • sir.civic
        SBR High Roller
        • 02-21-08
        • 154

        #4
        i dnt like dis bet at all. but then thats ur business...i jst think that nuggets will come out w/ a fire in them to keep a distance between them and warriors...seattle needs a lost for lottery.. 121 should be a gud border...dnt wna jinx any bets so gud luck guyz nuggets (points )here
        Comment
        • The_Kid
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 02-09-08
          • 5049

          #5
          Never underestimate Denver's ability to score the ball.
          Comment
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