Best Bets 2/28

[pags11]

Minnesota +3 (+101)
Seaton Hall ML +105
So. Carolina -1 (-103)

[Razz]

1* Kent St. -7
1* Minnesota +3 (why didn't I wait????????)
1* Eastern Kentucky +6.5
1* Samford -7
1* Tennesse Tech -5

[JayEgdarWho]

from 10-game power ratings

CHI--3.8--MIN
SEA--0.5--ORL
LAX--4.5--NOK

[dave11486]

from 10-game power ratings

CHI--3.8--MIN
SEA--0.5--ORL
LAX--4.5--NOK

Hey J, I don't know if I completely understand what this post means. Could I get a quick explaination?

[imgv94]

Who do you guys like for today?

Illusion will track everybodies plays, so please make sure you post a line.

Also, Illusion don't mind if you post parlays, teasers, or round robins, but these plays will not be reflected in the standings.
__________________

[imgv94]

2*Wright St/IL-Chic OVER 123
1*Wright St/IL-Chic OVER 124.5 +105

2*CLEV ST/DET OVER 128.5 +115

[JayEgdarWho]

Hey J, I don't know if I completely understand what this post means. Could I get a quick explaination?

Sure -- and apologies to anybody who got the concept already or who doesn't care, which would be completely understandable.

I referred to these spreads in a post right after the ASB and couple folks asked if I wouldn't mind posting them. This line is just a homemade number, derived from a set of power ratings that looks at the last 10 games only. I give each team a number, from 0 to 100, for each game, using a formula that accounts for score margin, strength of opponent and home court. The numbers in the thread are obviously not the power rankings, but the point spreads derived from the power rankings, which are dervied from each team's last 10 game scores of 0-100. NOK's power ranking for the last 10 games (50.3) is slightly higher than SEA's (43.3). Converted to a pointspread, that makes NOK a slight favorite on a neutral court and a half point dog on SEA's court. I've used a couple of different sets of HCA numbers lately -- one of them is this

http://teamrankings.com/nba/17powerratings.php3

although it is pretty extreme.

I don't myself, and don't recommend, making plays blindly based on the gap between this line and the actual line -- because NBA games in particular are crawling with X factors, and because I don't claim that my power rankings are anything special or nearly finely tuned enough.

It's just a guideline to provide some sense of how well a team is actually playing lately, which I think we can lose sight of trying to track 30 teams and having one particular recent outing burning in our memory most of the time.

I played GS last night not so much because this tool had them at 6 points over UTH and you could get 2.5, but rather because they had good power numbers in recent games even though their record was poor -- they were playing good teams tough, in tough situations (mostly on the road) and this was a drop in class. I also thought that they had hit bottom with the 75 point effort in SA and were shaking some things up and would come out blazing last night. (Thus making the over a play as well)

BUT THE UTAH MF JAZZ did me in again, and for the last time -- (see im's helpful oath in the 2-27 Best Bets section, which I have taken)

Sorry for the length of this. I debated PM'ng you but thought this was worth doing -- once.

There are lots of great cappers on this board, many many of them better at this than I am. And lots of them, especially some of the NBA cappers, provide GREAT writeups. I rely on my brothers as much or more than these numbers, and recommend that course to anyone.

[Dark Horse]

I played GS last night not so much because this tool had them at 6 points over UTH and you could get 2.5, but rather because they had good power numbers in recent games even though their record was poor -- they were playing good teams tough, in tough situations (mostly on the road) and this was a drop in class. I also thought that they had hit bottom with the 75 point effort in SA and were shaking some things up and would come out blazing tonight. (Thus making the over a play as well)

BUT THE UTAH MF JAZZ did me in again, and for the last time -- (see im's helpful oath in the 2-27 Best Bets section, which I have taken)

I was on GS as well. Looked solid. But I forgot my rule not to bet on a game involving two bad teams (because they both lack the abilty to control the game). Sure enough, GS dug itself a huge hole, made an ever bigger late comeback, covered the spread with 12 seconds left, then managed to give up not one but two 3-pointers, and lose in OT. I mean, why even make the friggin comeback?!

[Illusion]

Thansk for starting the thread pags.

[presley177]

why is everyone on Minnesota?

[Alamorich]

In the NBA I just pull the pics out my ass.

[mad]

Lmao

In the NBA I just pull the pics out my ass.

ME TOO, geez louise we must be kindred spirits. Hey Al, you like to be gentle and use a tweezers, or you like to really get in amongst it and go the full fist?

[Alamorich]

LOL....not sure I am comfortable about where this is going but since you use the same method I'll disclose that I dig em out with the forefinger much like how I pick my nose.

[Alamorich]

why is everyone on Minnesota?

Thats a good question. I think it's senior night in Minny and Ill might not be motivated/focused since the game doesn't mean much to them.

[Razz]

why is everyone on Minnesota?

This is the type of game where people see the line and wonder why Illinois is only a 3-point favorite. Well, I think the reason is because the books want money on Illinois.
Illinois is only 2-4 SU on the conference road this year, and Minnesota has been playing very well. They have won their last four conference home games by double digits, including two easy wins over top-15 teams.
Also, this is a sandwich game for Illinois, who captured a revenge win on Senior Day this weekend, and travels to Michigan St. this weekend.

[shantystar]

minnesotaa+3
kent state -7 .

[El Guapo]

6-9

Do any one here ever find a team that you can not make the right call ever? I like the Illinios team but they are making me wrong each time.

1 unit, Minnesota Univ., +4 (-108)
1 unit, Illinois at Minnesota, over 122 (-115)
1 unit, LSU, +1.5 (-103)

Paul

[Wassymac]

You know I'm on Minnesota....looks like I missed my opportunity to get it at a better price. I think they'll win SU but decided to split my bet up between spread and ML anyway.

2* Minny +3.5 -110
1* Minny ML +157
1* Kent State -7 -110 (Tailing Razz and David)

[mahony]

jacksonville / east kentucky under152
detroit u -8

[juuso]

Hornets @ Sonics over 203 @ -104 / 6 units

[dr03]

murray state -13

[Seattle Slew]

Cincinnati -1 at Seton Hall. I have to jump back on Cincinnati after they almost pulled off the upset last week against Villanova. They've had several days off and need this game badly to have a shot of making the NCAAs. Seton Hall has lost 3 straight to suspect teams (Notre Dame, St. John's and DePaul). They get a lift from senior night momentum at home, but I think Cinci is the right play.

[maritime]

Lately it seems that when I post my picks I lose, when I don't post them I win. So today going to post a little differently.

I like the team playing against LSU tonight minus 1.5 (2*)
and the team playing against Ohio tonight minus 7 (2*)

[newb411breaker19]

minnesotat +5.5
New Orleans +1

[bama06]

3-0

i'm going with, CHI.-6, LSU+1.5, and iowa st. -11.5

[Jack]

I gotta prove to myself that posting my picks won't jinx me so here goes.

Xavier -5 (+109)
Seton Hall pk (-104)
LSU +1 (+103)

everyone good luck!

[dave11486]

New Orleans @ Seattle over 203
New Orleans +1
Kent State -7.5
South Carolina -1.5

[fixxer]

Orlando +9 -105

[Illusion]

Bulls -6 +107

[Illusion]

South Carolina -2.5 +112

[imgv94]

Lately it seems that when I post my picks I lose, when I don't post them I win. So today going to post a little differently.

It happens 2 me all the time.

[JayEgdarWho]

Pass.

Truly a mental health day for Edgar.

Go GET THEM, guys.

[imgv94]

2*Wright St/IL-Chic OVER 123 *
1*Wright St/IL-Chic OVER 124.5 +105

2*CLEV ST/DET OVER 128.5 +115

NOW @ 126.. HEHE

[onlooker]

1* Kent St. -7

That game is up to -9 now. Nice overnight Razz.

1* Eastern Kentucky +6.5

And that one is down to +4.

[Dark Horse]

teaser, 1 unit at -110
CHI -1 and LAL -4.5