Tool's 3.31 NBA lines V2

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  • tool21
    SBR High Roller
    • 01-25-08
    • 102

    #1
    Tool's 3.31 NBA lines V2
    Made a few changes to the old spreadsheet to (hopefully) make this more accurate. The totals are still shaky, i just haven't been able to predict them as good as the spreads.

    First number is book opener. (X) is my line. Bold games show big variance. * designates team on a B2B
    ======================================== ========
    Denver 236 (217)
    Phoenix -5.5 (-5)

    Notes: Grant Hill is ? for Phoenix. I watched the game last time these two teams met, while Shaq was in it was going under but he earned fouls early and as soon as he sat down both teams started to run and this total went over. I like the under given Shaq isn't stupid and fouls early.
    --------------------------------------------------------------
    *Miami 198.5(201)
    Indiana -16.5(-5)

    Notes: Miami has got more injuries than I know what to do with + they have nothing to play for and they're on a B2B. No reason to bet on them although 16.5 is a shit load of points even for Miami. Who's Indiana to be laying 16.5 with a 30-43 record??? I think you either bet Miami or pass - I'll pass you just never know with teams like this late in the season. Pass
    ---------------------------------------------------------------
    *Toronto 194(197.5)
    Charlotte +2(-1)
    ---------------------------------------------------------------
    *Atlanta 210 (201.5)
    Memphis +3 (-2)

    Notes: This line shows value of 5 but you can't really count 0 as a place because a game can't land on 0. So you have 4 points of value and add that you have Atlanta on a B2B. Memphis has no injuries which is always good. The thing that scares me about this game is Memphis has nothing to play for and Atlanta does. It does however look like Memphis is playing tough as they beat the Lakers in LA and went into OT with Sacramento. But like i said earlier you never know with a team like this at the end of the year. I would expect that Atlanta is going to try very hard in a close game but then again they just put up over 100 points last night so the effort might not be as high as they need in this game. If Memphis plays hard and doesn't tank they should cover if not win.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------
    *Washington 209 (201.5)
    *Utah -9 (-7)
    ---------------------------------------------------------------
    *Dallas -6 (-2)
    LA Clippers 192.5 (192)

    Notes: Another value that is 4 points off but you have Dallas on a back to back AND without Dirk. The one and only thing keeping me away from betting this game is LAC's plague of injuries and they have nothing to play for. Dallas needs this game WAYYY more than LAC. Mainly passing because i'm not going to try to predict injuries as well as the game, to hard. Pass
    ======================================== =========



    Bet's I like are Memphis +3.5 and Denver under 236. Because Memphis is a bad team and has nothing to play for i wouldn't say that is a strong bet. Same with Denver under 236 - totals aren't really my thing but i'll bet these two for some small action tonight. Good luck with your wagers!!
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