tell me why denver is not the play

DIF · 01-23-11, 07:03 AM

I work hard with this matup too (my friend) and agree with your thoughts but Indiana is also a dangerous team at times (for example beat the Lakers away). I think the OVER could be the bet, but normally I hate the Overs on Sundays so be careful.

please check the matchup. http://www.bookmakers2u.com/denver-n...pacers-1938754

MartR · 01-23-11, 10:13 AM

You think Denver will cover -9??

mann2chc · 01-23-11, 11:15 AM

Denver at home awaiting teams that played the nite before usually spells disaster for that team... That being said, the nuggets should have no problem tonite... DEN -8.5 and the OVER... Good luck guys!!!

Shark · 01-23-11, 11:21 AM

im convinced. sounds good .

PorkyPig · 01-23-11, 11:30 AM

the number may look big but denver will cover

Eating Bookies · 01-23-11, 11:32 AM

Originally posted by paciophobia

1) The Nuggets lost pretty bad to the Pacers during their last matchup, 144-113, statistics have shown over a large spread thats teams coming from a humiliating loss (15+ points) hit 60% on revenge games.

2) The Pacers are on a b2b, their previous game starting at 10pm ET in portland, and their game coming up at 8pm in Denver. The time in the trip, the rest, the time change for indiana.

3) Denver is coming off a rest a day with no travelling, should be well rested and ready to bounce come gametime.

4) Denver just came from a deflating home loss against the Lakers, something they wanted pretty, i expect them to bounce and win this game coming up.

5) Indiana is not a good road team at all, 1-12 SU in its last 13 games.

6) Denver is a dominant home team, no questions. 18-4 SU in its last 22 games at home.

i think covering 8.5 will not be a problem. thoughts about this is open. i really like denver. tell me what you think guys.

You should look at the last game between the nuggs and pacers more closely. The pacers missed one shot in the 3rd quarter.

Le_Donk · 01-23-11, 11:43 AM

i like denver , but 9 points is to much. no play

JOHON8 · 01-23-11, 11:53 AM

Why?

Because they are the Thuggets. They'll take a 20 point lead, smile and laugh it off to a 5 point win at the end. Did you see the effort vs the Lakers? Pathetic.

jimmy007oc · 01-23-11, 11:56 AM

Line has moved to -9.5 @ 5Dimes. IMO, Denver will cover

mtbaker · 01-23-11, 12:58 PM

The line seems way too high with the lack of effort Denver showed on Friday- I wouldn't touch this game as you do not know which Nuggets team will show up and the Pacers might win SU or completely get blown out- bol with your selection.

STAY STRONG · 01-23-11, 01:56 PM

a lot of points but den should take care of business and cover

robotralph · 01-23-11, 02:20 PM

Denver will be able to wear out indians defense quickly. Under and denver to cover are my plays.

Baller85 · 01-23-11, 02:33 PM

Denver all day.. they got this.

riskyProps · 01-23-11, 02:36 PM

I got Denver as a ML play today only. If you got a lot of cheddar, this could be a good bet.

SBR Points only here for this play today

demens · 01-23-11, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by paciophobia

1) The Nuggets lost pretty bad to the Pacers during their last matchup, 144-113, statistics have shown over a large spread thats teams coming from a humiliating loss (15+ points) hit 60% on revenge games.

2) The Pacers are on a b2b, their previous game starting at 10pm ET in portland, and their game coming up at 8pm in Denver. The time in the trip, the rest, the time change for indiana.

3) Denver is coming off a rest a day with no travelling, should be well rested and ready to bounce come gametime.

4) Denver just came from a deflating home loss against the Lakers, something they wanted pretty, i expect them to bounce and win this game coming up.

5) Indiana is not a good road team at all, 1-12 SU in its last 13 games.

6) Denver is a dominant home team, no questions. 18-4 SU in its last 22 games at home.

i think covering 8.5 will not be a problem. thoughts about this is open. i really like denver. tell me what you think guys.

So lets address your points
1)
a - So?
b - Please provide a source for that 60%, because like every other angle people try to push around here, it smells like BS. When i checked i got the typical 50% with crazy variance each year.
c - There is no such thing as a revenge game imo. But even if you do believe there are, a team like Denver could not give less of a shit about them

2) Again, SOOO? Remember the Hornets game in Charlotte a week ago, how the line went from something like -1 to +3 because someone had some info that the Hornets flight was delayed and came in at 7am. Poor nba players on a b2b. Guess who won that game. Another coin flip "angle"

3) Same as #2. Rest might be a factor if the average age of your starting 5 is over 35. Other then that rest is an angle that hits 50% of the time.

4) Again, this is Denver. Their players do not give a **** about coming off a loss, embarrassing or not. Recent example, came off an embarrassing loss to the Clips, got annihilated and embarrassed even more on TNT by the Kings in the next game. Did they bounce back after that? No they lost to the Hornets AT HOME.

5) Yes, Indy is not a good road team. They are 1-12 SU. Good thing they have a 9 point cushion. They are 9-10 ATS which is respectable. Actually, its better then Denvers home ATS.

6) Yes, Denver is a dominant home team with a 10-12 ATS. You know why? I think its because they are dominant so books give them inflated lines which they dont cover.

And my own point #7. I guess lots of people saw that ESPN graph showing how great Denver is when the opponent is on its 2nd game of a b2b. Well, this is another angle that needs to be looked at in detail. Yes they beat those teams a lot. Do they cover the spread? Not really, 41-39 ATS last 6 seasons. Pretty consistent too, 1 game over, 1 game under each year. I guess the books know all about how good they are facing teams on b2b and do what.....inflate those lines...yay!!

I dont have a play for this game. Just wanted to share why I think Denver is NOT the play like the thread title says.

Masu485 · 01-23-11, 03:15 PM

this is why i hate writeups. people can think of so many reasons to take one team and they'll still only hit at 50% longterm.

all this means is that Pacers ML will probably hit. i'm on them on the spread though.

hustla · 01-23-11, 03:25 PM

Indianapolis is the play here, +9.5 against Denver? easy money...

texhooper · 01-23-11, 05:02 PM

i like denver to cover here as well.

wikkidinsane · 01-23-11, 05:04 PM

Im a loser and im taking the NUGGS

og4667 · 01-23-11, 05:22 PM

Gonna take the pacers ats

ttwarrior1 · 01-23-11, 05:24 PM

im gonna tease it along with over and pittsburgh and s illinois

Mac4Lyfe · 01-23-11, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by og4667

Gonna take the pacers ats

I'm on them also. Sprinkled with the ML. This is basketball, shit happens

Adr3nalin3 Ru5h · 01-23-11, 07:48 PM

G/L

sportman1313 · 01-23-11, 08:26 PM

Denver is 0-6-2 ATS the last 8 Sunday games...laying off the game but just saying. I think denver wins it and quite possibly in a blowout but Indiana are due for a win, and are no pushover at all.

paciophobia · 01-23-11, 10:52 PM

money in the bank!

telespectatorul · 01-23-11, 10:58 PM

denver -8.5 = cashhh money