Documenting my downfall

[Pap45murF]

Howdy. I'm doing really well this past month (19-7) with my system. But I'm still just holding my breath, waiting for the inevitable plummet into the red. I thought it was going to be last Wed but it ended up 3-1. Today's picks are even worse. Crossing my fingers and hoping to break even.

Join me in my car crash:

Memphis -3
Denver ML (Edit: Bet is actually Denver +2. ML wasn't offered.)
Nets -2

ML Parlay
Warriors
Boston

Teaser
Raptors +16.5
Warriors -2


Let's see what happens.

[Wilforth]

Have you heard Net's Lopez is having some health issues and may not play?

[Pap45murF]

It's alright. I didn't like the bet before I made it anyways. Guess I'll be looking to halftime hedge if things go astray.

Boston also has an injured list longer than their starting lineup.

[thedrifter]

I really like all your plays... Good Luck!

[Pap45murF]

Howdy. I'm doing really well this past month (19-7) with my system. But I'm still just holding my breath, waiting for the inevitable plummet into the red. I thought it was going to be last Wed but it ended up 3-1. Today's picks are even worse. Crossing my fingers and hoping to break even.

Join me in my car crash:

Memphis -3 (Nice defense by Memphis at the end)
Denver +2 (Way to fall apart in the 2nd half Denver)
Nets -2

ML Parlay
Warriors
Boston

Teaser
Raptors +16.5 (Way to lose by 40, champs!)
Warriors -2


Let's see what happens.

Worst day so far, 3-2... still in the green.

New Record: 22-9

[Pap45murF]

Another day, another chance for the system to fail. There were a lot of "weak" bets and "almost" qualifiers, so I don't have that many bets today. I didn't want to cross my fingers and hope for the Bucks or Detroit to pull it out. But here we go:

Magic -3

Teaser
Warriors +13 (Yes I know they're probably without Ellis but c'mon, +13 against the Clippers?)
Bobcats +1.5

Parlay
Mavs ML
Boston ML

[Masu485]

I also follow a system and it's been going great. It's tough making a play when you feel like it's a loser as you press the confirm button. Just follow the system blindly and everything will work out.

[Pap45murF]

Another day, another chance for the system to fail. There were a lot of "weak" bets and "almost" qualifiers, so I don't have that many bets today. I didn't want to cross my fingers and hope for the Bucks or Detroit to pull it out. But here we go:

Magic -3

Teaser
Warriors +13
Bobcats +1.5 (Congrats on going from 5 up at the half to losing by 16 )

Parlay
Mavs ML
Boston ML (Way to blow the lead you had all game, winners!)

First losing day. It's getting exponentially worse, perhaps next gameday is the one I come crashing down!!?

Today: 1-2
Total: 23-11

[Pap45murF]

Been a few days without any system plays. Now there's a couple.

Nuggets +2
Suns -1

-Should've gotten in on these lines this morning, but I didn't think they would move so violently. So I had to buy a point here and there.

Cleveland line is also wildly moving, but I refuse to ever play the Cavs.

Will probably be one more pick if the rest of the lines ever come out. I mean c'mon the Heat game is in like 3 hours.

Edit: adding

Small ML Parlay
Thunder
Warriors

These all feel like shots in the dark, so

[Pap45murF]

Been a few days without any system plays. Now there's a couple.

Nuggets +2
Suns -1

-Should've gotten in on these lines this morning, but I didn't think they would move so violently. So I had to buy a point here and there.

Cleveland line is also wildly moving, but I refuse to ever play the Cavs.

Will probably be one more pick if the rest of the lines ever come out. I mean c'mon the Heat game is in like 3 hours.

Edit: adding

Small ML Parlay
Thunder
Warriors

These all feel like shots in the dark, so

Today: 1-2
Total: 24-13

2nd losing day in a row! I'm assuming this is rock bottom. Tomorrow has got to be the bounce back. Kabizzle!

[Pap45murF]

Posting this for record keeping. I know the games are over so I could be lying... but I could also be a pirate hooker with scurvy. You don't know.

Bulls -3

Teaser
Thunder -3
Nuggets -4

1 unit separated into 2 bets: still counting as 1 play since I was only supposed to play one of them
Nets ML
Minn ML

Teaser
Mavs +6
Over 206


Today: 3-1
Total: 27-14

[Samuraifan]

your looking good, so far the car looks like its staying on the road

[Pap45murF]

Thanks. I wish I had started posting from bet 1 when I hit like two 4-0 days in a row. My inflated record just makes it look like I'm lying. But whatever. I don't want fans, I just like the pretty green and red colors. Whamboozle!

No plays for Thurs.

[Pap45murF]

Once again, my system has picked teams that I would not have picked. Puckered my butthole and placed the bets against my will. Fingers crossed.

Pacers -2
Spurs -4

Teaser
Heat -2
Hawks -2.5
(Had to decide whether I liked Magic over the home Wizards or Hawks over the away Clippers)

I got in on early lines since they're all favorites, so I'm hoping to see some line movement throughout the day.

System also wanted me to bet Suns ML as the dog to win... but there's no way I'm betting against Durant and the Thunder, road or no road.

Here's to hanging on one more time.

[Pap45murF]

Well, all my picks have moved -0.5 so far. Kinda makes me feel good. If you wanna play faves, you have to be up at 5 in the morning.

[Pap45murF]

Once again, my system has picked teams that I would not have picked. Puckered my butthole and placed the bets against my will. Fingers crossed.

Pacers -2
Edit: (I'm learning to respect the Pacers at home)

Spurs -4

Teaser
Heat -2
Hawks -2.5
(Had to decide whether I liked Magic over the home Wizards or Hawks over the away Clippers)
Edit: (Looks like I chose wrong. I've lost any respect I had for the Hawks. They're a lazy team with no heart. Prob won't play them for the rest of the season.)

I got in on early lines since they're all favorites, so I'm hoping to see some line movement throughout the day.

System also wanted me to bet Suns ML as the dog to win... but there's no way I'm betting against Durant and the Thunder, road or no road.

Here's to hanging on one more time.

Today: 2-1
Total: 29-15

[Pap45murF]

Trying some different looks to spice things up.

Let me know how it looks.

[Pap45murF]

Hmmm. Smaller picture than it actually is.

Trying a different host site.

[Pap45murF]

That's right. I went against the system and took the Hornets ML just because I know how much the public loves the Lakers and how much of chance Hornets have at home, rested against a B2B.

I may add the Bucks later depending on the line when it comes out.

[Pap45murF]

Nope. Bucks line is about 3 points too high. Jazz are a Go by the system... but once again I refuse to bet against Durant and the Thunder... very profitable strategy so far.

[broadway6]

love the images

[Adr3nalin3 Ru5h]

too much public today papa smurf.... rockets looks like the only winner but BOL

[Pap45murF]

I actually am kind of expecting a 1-2 day. Mavs have been a small favorite many many times, forcing me to continually bet on them... but they do have losses in their record... they will lose a game somewhere on this road trip.

And the parlay is more for fun than anything. I just couldn't pass up a +200 on a very capable Hornets at home. Paired with Bulls, I'm getting a 4:1 payout.

[Pap45murF]

Post-game comments: Should have stuck with the system I guess, but it really would have been nice to hit that 4:1 parlay.

As far as the Rockets... sloppiest, saddest game I'd seen in a while. 4th quarter was just a contest of which team could shoot the most air balls. I mean... an OT game that totaled 188? Just sad. And I still only lost it by a score.

I'm gonna lay off parlays and teasers for a few days, since they seem to be the bulk of my losses.



Today: 1-2
Total: 30-17

[Pap45murF]

Well least I'm staying true to the thread title. Slowly getting worse. I'll keep plugging away until the end of the season.

[Pap45murF]

One more while I was home watching the Super Bowl.



Pick: Knicks -4.5
Comments: none
Result: Winner



Plus I done won my SB bet and had free pizza. Good Sunday.

No games for Monday so far. Still waiting on Boston and Denver lines.



Today: 1-0
Total: 31-17

[Pap45murF]

Mondays Picks



Pick: Celtics -4
(bought half a point)
Comments: none
Result:



Pick: Denver -5
Comments: I hate betting on Denver. Sometimes they feel like playing, sometimes they don't.
But the Rockets are the exact same way and Carmello at home should have no problem here.
Result:

[Heandog]

Pap your doing very Good keep it up

[DemoralizdDreamr]

Carmelo Questionable
Nene Doubtful
Rockets coming off an OT win, i dont like the play bro but GL

[Pap45murF]

Mondays Picks



Pick: Celtics -4
(bought half a point)
Comments: none
Result: Loss





Pick: Denver -5
Comments: I hate betting on Denver. Sometimes they feel like playing, sometimes they don't.
But the Rockets are the exact same way and Carmello at home should have no problem here.
Result: Loss





Post-game Comments: Ouch. There it is. First day with no wins. None of this really matters. Systems will go up and down. Just gonna continue until the end of the season.

...and I had read the Carmello was only temporarily hurt with his elbow.



Today: 0-2
Total: 31-19

[Pap45murF]

Alright. Now that we've hit rock bottom, let's take that first baby step out of the hole.



Pick: Teaser: Thunder -3 and Over 201
Comments:Thunder should rise above the Grizzlies like they always do, and their games are usually in the 210+ area, with the O/U going up every time they meet.
Result:

[AZ*SUN*iBET4FUN]

Good luck on your play, am watching your System at work now

[Pap45murF]

Thanks. That early success might have been a fluke. I even dug up my old results (text file ftw) to see if there was any reason they were hitting then and not now. As long as I finish the year at 55% or more, I will call it a success. Right now I'm at 62%.

[MrSink]

like thunder to cover tonight

[Pap45murF]

Well. Thunder up 10 at the half, but borderline on the O/U with the total at 98. I'm hoping for a 110-95 Thunder victory.