Would like to keep a thread on these that I am playing. I only play dogs and only when my line and offshore differs by 3 or more. I have Charlotte favored by -1 1/2 to -2 so Philadelphia is the play at +5 1/2. Lines out there are Philly at +5 and +5 1/2 as of 9:52 ea. No play at less than 5.
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Both of these squads are inevitably going to be publicly perceived to be stronger than they actually are due to strong recent performances, games where you have two of those type of teams (we all know Philly should have won against orlando) scare me.Comment -
yes underdogs this year have been dominating...Comment -
Basically how I handicap the NBA are 3 things. Overall performance, home and road figures, and recent performance. OP favores Philly, Charlotte gets a few points based on Philly's poor road record (but covering) and recent performance is pretty even. I see a small edge for Charlotte being at home but not 5 points better. We'll see.Comment -
Play on DENVER +1
Wrong team favored here. I have Denver at -2. Home play and recent performance make this +EV.Maybe one other play later.
ytd 1-0Comment -
Line on Denver could go up so may be better to wait to play to grab an extra half or full point.Comment -
Whats the formula u guys use to get ur true line. Each people have different ways of doing it vs the vegas spread.Comment -
Hawk, it would take too long to write it up but it involves the 3 factors I mentioned above. Here are my lines for all the games but I only look to play dogs and a 3 pt or more difference from the offshores.
New Jersey PK
Orlando-13
Atlanta-3
Boston-7
Milw-7 1/2
Wash-2
Memphis-3
SA-10 1/2
Denver-2
GS-7Comment -
Some of your numbers are identical to accuscore. Do u use accuscore sometimes to find the differential line?Comment -
Hawk, no I don't use them at all or look at them. I make my lines first and then compare offshore.Comment -
Atlanta +3
NY +7 1/2
Golden St. +8
ytd 1-1Comment -
No play today. Need a 3 pt or more overlay on the dog for a wager. My line has Denver -9 1/2
ytd 4-1Comment -
No plays for Monday 1-24.
ytd 4-1Comment -
Two plays on Tuesday
Washington +5 1/2 Denver poor road play and Wash plays much better at home makes 5 1/2 look good-My line Denver -2 1/2
Sacramento +1 1/2 Wrong team favored here-My line Sacramento -2 1/2Comment -
Toronto +4 1/2
ytd 4-3Comment -
Houston +6 1/2
ytd 4-4Comment -
NY Knicks +6 1/2
Chicago +1
ytd 5-4Comment -
Atlanta +5 1/2
ytd 6-5Comment
