BB season thread with Kelly criteria

[BetaB]

I would like to track my system here using Kelly Criteria which i will adjusted after the end of each day, my win% this season is around 55%-56% with most play on either FG NBA spread or 2H spread. My starting Bank roll for this project is 500.

According to my hit rate my play will be 5% or my BR. Wish me luck guys

[BetaB]

LEANING: NJN 1H and NYK 1H

[BetaB]

Risk 25 on NYK -3 1H @ -110 to win 22.73 Push
Risk 25 on NJN +4 EV 1H to win 25 Lost
Risk 25 on DAL -4.5 FG to win 22.73 Lost

[BetaB]

Bos 2H -2 25 to win 22.73 Push
Por 2H -3.5 25 to win 22.73 win




YTD: 1W - 2L - 2P
1H record 0W - 1L - 1P
FG record 0W - 1L
2H record 1W - 0L - 1P

Starting BR 500
Current BR 472.73

[BetaB]

Leaning CBC, waiting for the line to go up a little more.

[echowilbury]

good luck brotha!

[BetaB]

CHI -6.5 2H @ -110 risk 23.6 Lost

YTD: 1W - 3L - 2P
1H record 0W - 1L - 1P
FG record 0W - 1L
2H record 1W - 1L - 1P

Starting BR 500
Current BR 449

[BetaB]

Leaning

UTAH -6.5 FG
IND +4 FG

[BetaB]

Jazz -6@-107 25 to win 23.35 Loss
IND +4.5@-103 22.5 to win 21.85 Pending
NYK @-110+2.5 22.5 to win 20 Loss
NOH 2H 22.5 -4 Won
MIL 2H 22.5 -5 Won
DEN 2H 22.5 Pending
DAL 2H 22.5 Pending

Hedging
GSW -5.5 2H @-105 21 to win 20

[BetaB]

Jazz -6@-107 25 to win 23.35 Loss -25
IND +4@-103 22.5 to win 21.85 Pending
NYK @-110+2.5 22.5 to win 20 Loss -22.5
NOH 2H 22.5 -4 Won 20.5
MIL 2H 22.5 -5 Won 20.5
DEN 2H -2.5 22.5 Won 20.5
DAL 2H +1 22.5 Won 20.5

YTD: 5W - 5L - 2P
1H record 0W - 1L - 1P
FG record 0W - 3L
2H record 5W - 1L - 1P

Starting BR 500
Current BR 483

[BetaB]

19/1/2010 Recap

Jazz -6@-107 25 to win 23.35 Loss -25
IND +4@-103 22.5 to win 21.85
NYK @-110+2.5 22.5 to win 20 Loss -22.5
NOH 2H 22.5 -4 Won 20.5
MIL 2H 22.5 -5 Won 20.5
DEN 2H -2.5 22.5 Won 20.5
DAL 2H +1 22.5 Won 20.5

Hedging
GSW -5.5 2H @-105 21 to win 20 won

YTD: 7W - 5L - 2P
1H record 0W - 1L - 1P
FG record 1W - 3L
2H record 6W - 1L - 1P

Starting BR 500
Current BR 524.85


Finally FG hit. Tomorrow stake will be risk 26.25 per game unless stated otherwise.

[BetaB]

POR -1.5 1H @ -105 13.65(2.5%) to win 13. won

YTD: 8W - 5L - 2P
1H record 1W - 1L - 1P
FG record 1W - 3L
2H record 6W - 1L - 1P

Starting BR 500
Current BR 537.85

[BetaB]

Leaning NYK and UTAH + point

2FG play tomorrow

NYK +8.5 FG @-105 27 to win 25.7 lost
Jazz+6 FG @ -110 27 to win 24.55 lost
0-2 -54

[BetaB]

Added play
GWS -4.5 2H risk 27 to win 25.7 Won
BOS-3 @-110 13.5 to win 12.25 Won
Cleveland -0.5 2H @-105 27 to win 25.7 lost
Atlanta Hawk -6 2H @ EV for 13.5 to win 13.5 lost
Utah -2 2H @ -110 12.25 to win 11 lost
Memphis -4.5 2H EV 27 to win 27 Won

NYK +8.5 FG @-105 27 to win 25.7 lost
Jazz+6 FG @ -110 27 to win 24.55 lost
0-2 -54

3-5 -80.0

YTD: 11W - 10L - 2P
1H record 2W - 1L - 1P
FG record 1W - 5L
2H record 8W - 4L - 1P

Starting BR 500
Current BR 511.85

[BetaB]

Really like Iraq chance to win against Australia win the Asian cup today, might parlay them with Nadal and Real Madrid to get the number up

[BetaB]

Cashed Iraq +0.5 + Nadal parlay for 20. Won't count this toward my record but will increase my unit accordingly.

Utah @PHI FG +2 @ -105 26 to win 24.75 lost (This is my 3rd loss with Utah already)
MEM @MIL 1H +1.5 -105 13 TO WIN 12.38 won
NOH 1H +1.5 13 TO WIN 12 Won
CBC 1H -1.5 13 TO WIN 12 Won

2H
NJN 2H +2 26 to win 24 Won
WAS 2H +1 26 to win 24 Won
DET 2H -0.5 26 to win 24 Won
OKC 2H -8 26 to win 26
MIL 2H -2 26 to win 24
HOU 2H -3 26 to win 24

[Crazygamble]

good luck keep it up bro

[BetaB]

good luck keep it up bro

Thanks you and welcome to my thread

[BetaB]

RECAP

Utah @PHI FG +2 @ -105 26 to win 24.75 lost (This is my 3rd loss with Utah already)
MEM @MIL 1H +1.5 -105 13 TO WIN 12.38 won
NOH 1H +1.5 13 TO WIN 12 Won
CBC 1H -1.5 13 TO WIN 12 Won

3 win 1 lost +10.38

2H
NJN 2H +2 26 to win 24 Won
WAS 2H +1 26 to win 24 Won
DET 2H -0.5 26 to win 24 Won
OKC 2H -8 26 to win 26 Won
MIL 2H -2 26 to win 24 Lost
HOU 2H -3 26 to win 24 Push

4-1-1 +72

YTD: 18W - 12L - 3P
1H record 5W - 1L - 1P
FG record 1W - 6L
2H record 12W - 5L - 2P

Day total 7-2-1 +82.38

Starting BR 500
Current BR 596( Exclude 20 won in Soccer)

Gonna stop playing FG for a while, i will still give out leans in case someone wanna see them.

[BetaB]

Late play:
POR 2H -5 26 to win 24

[BetaB]

another winner with POR 2H Great day today.
That's it for the 1st Week guys, thanks for following, let's hope the great run continue and FG result picked up a little.

Updated record

YTD: 19W - 12L - 3P
1H record 5W - 1L - 1P
FG record 1W - 6L
2H record 13W - 5L - 2P

Day total 8-2-1 +82.38

Starting BR 500
Current BR 620( Exclude 20 won in Soccer)

[BetaB]

Parlay: risking 1% (6.2)

Real Madrid -550 + At Madrid PK -113 and Packer -190 for 6 to win 14.8

[BetaB]

Tomorrow NBA:
Denver 1H -4.5 15 to win 13.6 won it, no more play today

YTD: 20W - 12L - 3P
1H record 6W - 1L - 1P
FG record 1W - 6L
2H record 13W - 5L - 2P

Starting BR 500
Current BR 633 (Excluding soccer play and parlay lost)

[BetaB]

Leaning Spur FG @ GSW

[BetaB]

Asian Cup: South Korea PK +106 13.6 to win 14. If this one lose, with the parlay lost earlier then mine 20 win with Iraq is gone and no more play will be excluded from the record. If it's a win, then i will sure this 27.6 to play off-record until it's run out.

Write up:

See a great value here, although Korea went to extra time and having 1 less day to rest but historically they beat japan about 40-50% and the most recent meeting just before the world cup in Japan ended with Korean being victor 2-0.

[VicVega91]

Good luck today !!

[BetaB]

Will play OKC 1H if it stay @ +2.5, but still waiting for the line to drop a little. 2.5% as usual.

Ok play OKC +2 @-110 15.83 to win 14.4

[BetaB]

24/1/2010 update

OKC +2 @-110 15.83 to win 14.4 lose
NJN 2H -9 31 to win 29.5 lose
ORL 2H -11 31 to win 29.5 lose
NYK 2H -5.5 31 to win 29.5 won
MIN 2H +1.5 31 to win 31 lose
OKC 2H pk 15 to win 14 won

Oh sh*t, i forgot to upgrade SAS from lean to a play. NVM

[BetaB]

24/1/2010 final update

2win 4 loses -65

OKC 1H +2 @-110 15.83 to win 14.4 lose
NJN 2H -9 31 to win 29.5 lose
ORL 2H -11 31 to win 29.5 lose
NYK 2H -5.5 31 to win 29.5 won
MIN 2H +1.5 31 to win 31 lose
OKC 2H pk 15 to win 14 won

YTD: 22W - 16L - 3P
1H record 6W - 2L - 1P
FG record 1W - 6L
2H record 15W - 8L - 2P


Starting BR 500
Current BR 568

[BetaB]

1-1 kOREA VS JAPAN. PUSH

[BetaB]

Dallas -3.5 1H 17 to win 15.5 (Risking 3%) lost
DAL 2H -9 EV 29 to win 29 won

Add WAS +1.5 2H risking 2.5% 14.5 to win 13 won

SAC 2H -3.5 5% 29 to win 26.5 Won

[BetaB]

25/1/2010 final update

3win 1 loses +51.5

Dallas -3.5 1H 17 to win 15.5 (Risking 3%) lost
DAL 2H -9 EV 29 to win 29 won
WAS +1.5 2H risking 2.5% 14.5 to win 13 won
SAC 2H -3.5 5% 29 to win 26.5 Won

Starting BR 500
Current BR 619.5


YTD: 25W - 17L - 3P
1H record 6W - 3L - 1P
FG record 1W - 6L
2H record 18W - 8L - 2P

[craigpb]

Nice job on the half bets.

[BetaB]

Nice job on the half bets.

Thanks, good day overall although i lost 200SBR point betting on Nadal. Pouring the rest (about 100) on to Li Na now.

[BetaB]

26/1/2010 Card ( will edit and updated on this post only)

FG
MEM@NJN 31 to win 28(rounded) lose

1H: 2 Leans
Utah +2 @ -115 (odd should drop in Utah favor) NO PLAY
Detroit +1.5 15.5 to win 14 lose
GSW +1.5 (still leaning)
HOU@LAC 1H (NO play, line to high)

2H still to come
NJN PK 31 to win 28 (Like the 8 point margin i got with Griz-3 as NJN down by 11) won
IND -1.5 31 to win 28 lose
GSW -3 31 to win 28

Tennis
Li Na (Australian Open) -140 risking 28 to win 20 + 94 SBR point. This is pretty much form the cash i got with PORTLAND which i forgot to change it status from lean to official play and therefore, will be off record, similar to the played i made on Korea yesterday.