Accuscore Free NBA Picks

Pap45murF · 01-15-11, 02:46 PM

Couple of these have been done. The best one I've seen is when they took the odds of the game, and converted it into a win percentage. Then if that was less than the Accuscore percentage, it would be a bet, since the simulations predicted a higher win % than Vegas did.

I've been doing a Accuscore system similar to that, and I've noticed that in the past 2 months or so, if Accuscore picks underdogs to win outright, it had a 0% win rate. AS can't pick dogs for crap. But if you see like a 70% win prediction and the spread is only around -4, it pretty much hits like 80% of the time.

Good luck, I'll follow this for a while, since I really want to find a good AS system. I mean 10,000 simulations seems to me about as accurate as you can get.

snapperman2 · 01-16-11, 10:15 AM

Results:
(+1539) Cleveland Cavaliers +3000, 1u

(-1u)
(+150) Dallas Mavericks +248, 1u

(-1u)
(+298) Houston Rockets +350, 1u

(+3.5u)
(-129) Chicago Bulls +130, 1u

(+1.3u)
(+339) New Jersey Nets +442, 1u

(-1u)
(+123) New Orleans Hornets +144, 1u

(+1.44u)
(+223) Minnesota Timberwolves +301, 1u

(-1u)
(-260) Detroit Pistons -193, 1.93u

(+1u)

4-4 +3.24u

Tonight's Picks:
(+119) Los Angeles Clippers +207, 1u

spargament · 01-16-11, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by Pap45murF

Couple of these have been done. The best one I've seen is when they took the odds of the game, and converted it into a win percentage. Then if that was less than the Accuscore percentage, it would be a bet, since the simulations predicted a higher win % than Vegas did.

I've been doing a Accuscore system similar to that, and I've noticed that in the past 2 months or so, if Accuscore picks underdogs to win outright, it had a 0% win rate. AS can't pick dogs for crap. But if you see like a 70% win prediction and the spread is only around -4, it pretty much hits like 80% of the time.

Good luck, I'll follow this for a while, since I really want to find a good AS system. I mean 10,000 simulations seems to me about as accurate as you can get.

that first system also just is about finding +ev, many sites lately that use technology like accuscore have had huge problems with dogs. Personally i think that's because there has been a disproportionate amount of success by the dogs recently, and a lot of what has helped me hit the more than occasional dog is qualitative analysis, watching lines move (to an extent) and most importantly; figure out what the books perception of the public's perception of each game is and vice versa. It's hard to do all of that and convert it in a system that finds dogs in ball.

MrShrink · 01-16-11, 01:18 PM

keep it up. interested in how this goes.

Pap45murF · 01-16-11, 05:43 PM

Wait, I just saw the first pick. Did AS really predict that the Cavs would win outright? Or was it just that you might as well put a unit on a payout that big?

snapperman2 · 01-17-11, 08:25 AM

Results:
(+119) Los Angeles Clippers +207, 1u

(+2.07u)

5-4 +5.31u

Wait, I just saw the first pick. Did AS really predict that the Cavs would win outright? Or was it just that you might as well put a unit on a payout that big?

Accuscore gives an expected win percentage and I translate that into moneyline odds. The moneyline odds that Accuscore considered to be fair for the Cavs was +1539 and the actual odds offered was +3000, so that made the Cavs a presumably +EV bet.

kingsr · 01-17-11, 08:34 AM

i like this!

cala56 · 01-17-11, 08:44 AM

Ecellent. Profitables MoneyLines

telespectatorul · 01-17-11, 08:59 AM

Pap45murF · 01-17-11, 11:41 AM

Yeah this sounds like the system I saw before for baseball. Did around 58% wins until losing every game the last 2 days of the season. Players giving up before the playoffs and such.

ThisGuy · 01-17-11, 11:46 AM

Accuscore can definitly be whack at times. If I remember right a week back when NY went to PHX and smoked them AC only gave NYK a 17% chance. I don't know how much stock it puts in matchup history, which obv is gonna be screwy depending on the team. You can throw any past years stats out the window when it comes to Mia for ex

snapperman2 · 01-17-11, 01:03 PM

Tonight's Picks:
(-300) Philadelphia 76ers -184, 1.84u
(-245) Memphis Grizzlies -195, 1.95u
(-213) Dallas Mavericks -180, 1.8u
(+106) Indiana Pacers +144, 1u
(+141) Milwaukee Bucks +175, 1u
(-652) Portland Trail Blazers -365, 3.65u
(-400) Golden State Warriors -305, 3.05u
(-310) Los Angeles Lakers -185, 1.85u
(+142) Phoenix Suns +214, 1u
(-625) Atlanta Hawks -520, 5.2u
(+270) Toronto Raptors +350, 1u
(+116) Washington Wizards +173, 1u

cala56 · 01-17-11, 11:07 PM

PROFITABLE DAY.

wikkidinsane · 01-17-11, 11:11 PM

Hmm interesting

snapperman2 · 01-18-11, 07:26 AM

Results:
(-300) Philadelphia 76ers -184, 1.84u

(+1u)
(-245) Memphis Grizzlies -195, 1.95u

(-1.95u)
(-213) Dallas Mavericks -180, 1.8u

(-1.8u)
(+106) Indiana Pacers +144, 1u

(-1u)
(+141) Milwaukee Bucks +175, 1u

(-1u)
(-652) Portland Trail Blazers -365, 3.65u

(+1u)
(-400) Golden State Warriors -305, 3.05u

(+1u)
(-310) Los Angeles Lakers -185, 1.85u

(+1u)
(+142) Phoenix Suns +214, 1u

(+2.14u)
(-625) Atlanta Hawks -520, 5.2u

(+1u)
(+270) Toronto Raptors +350, 1u

(-1u)
(+116) Washington Wizards +173, 1u

(+1.73u)

12-9 +7.43u

cala56 · 01-18-11, 08:59 AM

Wowwww excellent

snapperman2 · 01-18-11, 06:06 PM

Tonight's Pick:
(-541) Chicago Bulls -370, 3.7u

snapperman2 · 01-19-11, 07:43 AM

Results:
(-541) Chicago Bulls -370, 3.7u

(-3.7u)

12-10 +3.73u

The favorites chosen by Accuscore are losing money now (-1.45u), but the dogs are still doing well (+5.18u). I think I'll just bet on the dogs from now on, but I'll keep tracking both.

cala56 · 01-19-11, 08:03 AM

Now may be the time of the Underdogs, but then can be turned. Continuously track all

snapperman2 · 01-19-11, 01:10 PM

Tonight's Picks:
(+558) Detroit Pistons +760, 1u
(+139) Indiana Pacers +155, 1u
(-129) Dallas Mavericks +131, 1u
(-201) New Orleans Hornets -165, 1.65u
(-313) Los Angeles Clippers -275, 2.75u
(-213) Denver Nuggets -163, 1.63u
(-549) Orlando Magic -495, 4.95u
(+173) Cleveland Cavaliers +289, 1u
(-122) Portland Trail Blazers -117, 1.17u
(+658) Toronto Raptors +816, 1u
(+125) New Jersey Nets +239, 1u
(-313) Milwaukee Bucks -240, 2.4u

snapperman2 · 01-20-11, 07:27 AM

Results:
(+558) Detroit Pistons +760, 1u

(-1u)
(+139) Indiana Pacers +155, 1u

(-1u)
(-129) Dallas Mavericks +131, 1u

(+1.31u)
(-201) New Orleans Hornets -165, 1.65u

(+1u)
(-313) Los Angeles Clippers -275, 2.75u

(+1u)
(-213) Denver Nuggets -163, 1.63u

(+1u)
(-549) Orlando Magic -495, 4.95u

(+1u)
(+173) Cleveland Cavaliers +289, 1u

(-1u)
(-122) Portland Trail Blazers -117, 1.17u

(+1u)
(+658) Toronto Raptors +816, 1u

(-1u)
(+125) New Jersey Nets +239, 1u

(+2.39u)
(-313) Milwaukee Bucks -240, 2.4u

(+1u)

Yesterday: 8-4 +5.7u
YTD: 20-14 +9.43u

The favorites did better yesterday.

snapperman2 · 01-20-11, 12:27 PM

Tonight's Picks:
(+110) Dallas Mavericks +146, 1u
(-195) Portland Trail Blazers -155, 1.55u
(+142) Philadelphia 76ers +180, 1u

cala56 · 01-20-11, 02:26 PM

Excellent. I know this is profitable.

Pap45murF · 01-20-11, 03:31 PM

This is basically the same as in poker. Compare pot odds to win odds and take the +EV. Mathematically, it should be profitable.

snapperman2 · 01-21-11, 07:56 AM

Results:
(+110) Dallas Mavericks +146, 1u

(-1u)
(-195) Portland Trail Blazers -155, 1.55u

(+1u)
(+142) Philadelphia 76ers +180, 1u

(-1u)

Yesterday: 1-2 -1u
YTD: 21-16 +8.43u

Tonight's Picks:
(-173) New Jersey Nets -128, 1.28u
(-207) Memphis Grizzlies -157, 1.57u
(-145) Denver Nuggets +101, 1u
(+117) New Orleans Hornets +158, 1u
(-115) Washington Wizards -104, 1.04u
(-390) Golden State Warriors -270, 2.7u
(-292) Boston Celtics -230, 2.3u

snapperman2 · 01-22-11, 08:42 AM

Results:
(-173) New Jersey Nets -128, 1.28u

(+1u)
(-207) Memphis Grizzlies -157, 1.57u

(+1u)
(-145) Denver Nuggets +101, 1u

(-1u)
(+117) New Orleans Hornets +158, 1u

(+1.58u)
(-115) Washington Wizards -104, 1.04u

(-1.04u)
(-390) Golden State Warriors -270, 2.7u

(+1u)
(-292) Boston Celtics -230, 2.3u

(+1u)

Yesterday: 5-2 +3.54u
YTD: 26-18 +11.97u

Tonight's Picks:
(-172) Charlotte Bobcats -125, 1.25u
(+158) New Jersey Nets +180, 1u
(+162) Golden State Warriors +282, 1u
(+168) Indiana Pacers +197, 1u
(-173) Milwaukee Bucks -144, 1.44u
(-162) Orlando Magic -145, 1.45u
(+113) New Orleans Hornets +130, 1u
(+517) Toronto Raptors +975, 1u

cala56 · 01-22-11, 09:12 AM

Keep Winning. Can you show where free pciks are in accuscore?

snapperman2 · 01-22-11, 09:53 AM

The free picks are in the Free Accuscore Game Previews that can be accessed from the Accuscore home page. They give the expected winning percentage for each side.

EasyHustlin · 01-22-11, 10:54 AM

In addition to playing the moneyline you could also take the points on dogs as some insurance, that may be something to keep track of and see how it does.

EasyHustlin · 01-22-11, 10:58 AM

Also I think Kelly would be great for a strategy like this.

jacktheknife · 01-22-11, 01:29 PM

Anything about the Heat?

snapperman2 · 01-23-11, 11:53 AM

Results:
(-172) Charlotte Bobcats -125, 1.25u

(-1.25u)
(+158) New Jersey Nets +180, 1u

(-1u)
(+162) Golden State Warriors +282, 1u

(-1u)
(+168) Indiana Pacers +197, 1u

(-1u)
(-173) Milwaukee Bucks -144, 1.44u

(-1.44u)
(-162) Orlando Magic -145, 1.45u

(+1u)
(+113) New Orleans Hornets +130, 1u

(+1.3u)
(+517) Toronto Raptors +975, 1u

(-1u)

Yesterday: 2-6 -4.39u
YTD: 28-24 +7.58u

A bad night for the system. The favorites are giving more profit than the underdogs now.

Tonight's Pick:
(+273) Indiana Pacers +461, 1u

snapperman2 · 01-23-11, 02:51 PM

Also I think Kelly would be great for a strategy like this.

That's a great suggestion! I looked at what the performance of this system would have been if I had been using Kelly betting and it was a lot better. I'll use Kelly betting from now on.

snapperman2 · 01-24-11, 07:12 AM

Results:
(+273) Indiana Pacers +461, 1u

(-1u)

Yesterday: 0-1 -1u
YTD: 28-25 +6.58u