Yep, was that on bet365, now Nuggets are +1
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the total dropped 3 points also. WTF is going on??
lebrons injury must be worse then just a turned ankleComment -
Yep. It's a pity bet365 brings out their lines late, so I never had the chance to grab +4 on the NugsComment -
You said it!Originally posted by oh_lolComment -
yeah same with my book. thats why i went through the local last night. was hoping to get the ml at good value but thats shot.
Sources close to the team say james jones will be get the start with lebron sitting out. I dont have any reliable info but the line and the total dropping leads me to believe this is the caseComment -
Makes it a difficult play now. I keep hearing LBJ is a gametime decision. What if the bookies are basing it on him NOT playing? What if he comes and plays tonight.
You'd also think if LBJ is out, it would be more than a 3 point change? Also look at the U/O, it has gone from 204 to 202.5. They don't seem like big enough changes for a player who can put up 40 points AND defend like a madman.
I've just taken the Over for this game now.Comment -
do you think we should back off of this play now?
I like it even more if lebrons out we got it at +4 last nightComment -
At the current line i wouldnt have nowhere near as much on the game but it would still be a play. It will be interesting to see where the line goes form hereComment -
Ok here we go…
Key Matchup… Dwayne Wade vs. Aaron Afflalo
Afflalo is Denver’s best defender and is quietly putting together a season worthy of notice. In 35 minutes a night he is scoring 12.6 points a game and grabbing 3.8 boards. Its very small in comparison to Wade, but he will give Wade some major problems with his defense. Moreover, Afflalo is playing significantly better at home this season where he averages 14.1, a point and a half higher than his season average.
If James is unable to play, Miami is going to need a big night from Wade and Bosh obviously but where the loss will really hurt is that the Heat will lose one of their best defensive players, and the guy who would be guarding Melo.
Also Carmelo and the Nuggets have owned both the Heat and the Cavs past couple years with melo playing his best ball. The Heat' has lost its last four games in Denver coming by an average margin of 17.8 points.
Lets get to the trends for Denver…
· Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
· Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5.
· Nuggets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
· Nuggets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
· Nuggets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
· Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road-winning % of greater than .600.
Both teams recent record ATS has been very good but when you consider that Denver is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games at home, its hard to bet on the Heat who are playing the second leg of a back to back and may even be possibly missing LeBron.
Also Carmelo and the Nuggets have owned both the Heat and the Cavs past couple years with melo playing his best ball. The Heat' has lost its last four games in Denver coming by an average margin of 17.8 points.
Biggest advantage…
There is actually two. The first and biggest one is the bench. On the road the Heat bench averages a mere 20.5 points per game with a 29.8 point effiency compared to the Nuggets at home putting up 36.6 points per game and a 40.0 point effiency!! When you got guys like Lawson and Smith coming off the bench that can light up the game while the other teams subs are in that does so much for a team.
The building is going to be absolutely electric. Look for the nuggets to roll on a Heat team coming to the Pepsi center on their 4th game on a 5 game road trip. Add to the fact they will be on a b2b night with the high altitude.
I like this play even if Lebron does play. As I posted this thread before all of that went down. Nba is all about situational plays to bet big on and this is one of those plays.
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Found this stat on Covers...
From 2005-10 the Nuggets have won 85.7% of home games against opponents playing the 2nd night of B2B's.
This season, the Nuggets have won 83% (5-1) of home games vs opponents on a B2B.
The Pepsi Center is an ABSOLUTE NIGHTMARE to play at and add in the fact that it is a B2B
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I wish you luck and hope you hit your big play. It was certainly nice to see the jeers turn to cheers midway through that Phoenix game. Hopefully they can start fast and keep the crowd in it. It's all about the Denver bench in this one and if JR Smith is anything close to hot MIA will be up against it. As a Denver backer in this spot, I'm really hoping LeBron plays.Comment -
taddy agree with everything you say. i feel JR will get his shot back and have one of his best games of the year tonight
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Hopefully, he's a headcase but if he can play within the system and not force shots he's so much fun to watch.Originally posted by forloveofthegametaddy agree with everything you say. i feel JR will get his shot back and have one of his best games of the year tonightComment -
Nuggets are now favored by 1.5 points.
what a way to start the play of the year
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lebron being out could be the worst thing for you. Play small.Comment -
its a bit to late for that. im sure if i called and canceled my bet with the local he would consider me his best customerOriginally posted by vyomguy
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denver bench 21 miami bench 9... Nene 6pts 6 boards already
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Wow! Up 17 at the half. Gotta like that. 24 minutes of game left. Good luck!Comment -
34-12 bench difference
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thanks mikali anything can happen not counting my dollars but entertained on how the game is going the way i analyzed on my biggest play of the year.
And my guy JR is going OFFComment -
I don't wan't to jinx you. If I was you i'd feel pretty good now even though it's only half over.Originally posted by forloveofthegameComment -
alot can happen but imo heat gave up clearly. nuggets are too fast even with lebron 100% denver was the play bigOriginally posted by MikailComment -
Bodog says Nuggets +3 for 2nd Half... What's the play?Comment -
for the love like when we talked loved the play tailed for 12x(didnt have the balls to put the last 3 units) but what ever happens man lets let this pick ride out
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id stay away. heat is a trap imo. but anything can happen so i wouldnt put to much onto denver eitherOriginally posted by GimpedMasterComment -
Great call. I put a little on the Nuggets but got them ML and only a small play.Originally posted by forloveofthegameComment -
Originally posted by forloveofthegame
Exactly. I am calling this one early by watching Heat body language. At this point I dont think it matters if they gave a herculian effort and Lebron entered the game.
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nice callComment -
Its not like were in the playoffs wade is thinking we got to get healthy. dont need to win every gameOriginally posted by lyon804 Exactly. I am calling this one early by watching Heat body language. At this point I dont think it matters if they gave a herculian effort and Lebron entered the game.
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Bah, went big on Denver +3 for 2H... Hope the Heat just give up!Comment -
Hope i had followers on this stress free winner!!! Last big one was anything but, but we still cashed it too
Killing it this season up just about 50 units
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ftl congratulations on your big play
you are the best at hitting the big ones,
wish i had tailed, but denver nailed me 2x last
week.Comment -
Wish I wen't heavier on it. A win is a win though.Originally posted by forloveofthegameHope i had followers on this stress free winner!!! Last big one was anything but, but we still cashed it too
Killing it this season up just about 50 units
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Thats a good play GL hope you win itComment -
Denver bench drops 66 on the Miami Ice
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