81.33% of public on the lakers -5.5?????

**JOHON8** · 01-12-11, 11:37 AM

Why don't you just stay away, is anyone forcing you to bet against the Lakers?

**bonduforlife** · 01-12-11, 11:39 AM

No i like betting against the Public. It pays very well. I just thought I should point out the percentages

**CHAZ** · 01-12-11, 11:41 AM

If the line doesnt start to move towards the Lakers I'm with you.

**beaunose2002** · 01-12-11, 11:42 AM

Kobe is hurting again...maybe they are playing him part time against GS

**bonduforlife** · 01-12-11, 11:47 AM

The lakers might take the Warriors like the Cavs and not show up to play. I am expecting a sloppy game from the lake show

**suicidekings** · 01-12-11, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by bonduforlife

Seeing yesterdays blowout, everyone's expecting them to blow out the warriors as well. These teams always play close game I like the warriors +5.5

Im with the 18% of the public....

1) The notion of betting against the public means a lot less when you're talking about the heavily bet teams like the Lakers, Celtics, etc.

2) When you're reading the numbers 11 hours before tipoff, you're not getting an accurate read on those numbers as you're actually seeing the early action, before the "joe public" money balances it out in ~3 hours before gametime. As of 11am pacific time, there's only 800 bets on this game. You shouldn't be drawing conclusions from anything less than 5000 bets on a game.

I don't necessarily disagree with the Warriors as a play, but your logic behind the play is way off.

**bonduforlife** · 01-12-11, 02:23 PM

I didnt take them yet, im going to wait till game time and see what the percentages are. But the Squares tend to bet way early and end up losing. The line is moving my way so im going to wait for it to go a up a bit if it doesnt then im going to buy half a point and take the Warriors +6

I appreciate your feedback bro. Some good stuff

**Hulk32ster** · 01-12-11, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

1) The notion of betting against the public means a lot less when you're talking about the heavily bet teams like the Lakers, Celtics, etc.

2) When you're reading the numbers 11 hours before tipoff, you're not getting an accurate read on those numbers as you're actually seeing the early action, before the "joe public" money balances it out in ~3 hours before gametime. As of 11am pacific time, there's only 800 bets on this game. You shouldn't be drawing conclusions from anything less than 5000 bets on a game.

I don't necessarily disagree with the Warriors as a play, but your logic behind the play is way off.

where or what website can you actually see the number of bets on a game?

**Mikail** · 01-12-11, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by bonduforlife

Seeing yesterdays blowout, everyone's expecting them to blow out the warriors as well. These teams always play close game I like the warriors +5.5

Im with the 18% of the public....

Actually I'm seeing about 74% on Lakers spread. Regardless. I like the Warriors +5.5 Wait til tip off. Maybe get a better #

**demens** · 01-12-11, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by bonduforlife

Seeing yesterdays blowout, everyone's expecting them to blow out the warriors as well. These teams always play close game I like the warriors +5.5

Im with the 18% of the public....

Like the 24 and 28 point "close" games they had this year?

That is sound logic, i say you should go all in.

**iQon** · 01-12-11, 03:04 PM

Whatever happened to just capping games and going with what the numbers you believed in, Regardless of who everybody else likes? Now everyone here just says "I'm playing whoever gets the least action on the offshores"

Lakers have owned GS lately. @home @GS.

Public doesn't make the lines, they just play what they're given. Thinking that "last nights blowout" is swaying people is stupid. The Lakers were going to get all the action regardless of what happened recently.

**suicidekings** · 01-12-11, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by iQon

Whatever happened to just capping games and going with what the numbers you believed in, Regardless of who everybody else likes? Now everyone here just says "I'm playing whoever gets the least action on the offshores"

Lakers have owned GS lately. @home @GS.

Public doesn't make the lines, they just play what they're given. Thinking that "last nights blowout" is swaying people is stupid. The Lakers were going to get all the action regardless of what happened recently.

Completely neglecting line movement is about as smart as relying on it exclusively. It definitely offers strong insight into some games, but also requires good judgement and knowledge of who's placing the wagers (and when), and the external factors driving the line movement. So if a bettor is not capping the game himself and/or he lacks the experience to assess the strength of a given line offered by the books for a particular matchup, then relying on line movement is going to burn him as often as not.

I feel like last night's blowout will definitely affect a lot of people's decisions on betting tonight's game, but if you asked around you'll get a lot of different interpretations on exactly how it will influence the game...

**lyon804** · 01-12-11, 04:20 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Completely neglecting line movement is about as smart as relying on it exclusively. It definitely offers strong insight into some games, but also requires good judgement and knowledge of who's placing the wagers (and when), and the external factors driving the line movement. So if a bettor is not capping the game himself and/or he lacks the experience to assess the strength of a given line offered by the books for a particular matchup, then relying on line movement is going to burn him as often as not.

I feel like last night's blowout will definitely affect a lot of people's decisions on betting tonight's game, but if you asked around you'll get a lot of different interpretations on exactly how it will influence the game...

Sup buddie. Glad to see you back around. You offer great insight. How have you been?

**bleek88** · 01-12-11, 04:37 PM

Lakers will cover. Goodluck to david lee trying to guard both 7 footers. Even with bryant having 15 pts and a few dimes, lakers will cover the 5.5.

**nulldah** · 01-12-11, 04:59 PM

warriors team are different from heartless cavaliers team...

on a second thought, is there any bookies offering lakers 50+ points favourite, just in case considering the number of bet on lakers is 81.33%. there might be someone taking it

**skk** · 01-12-11, 07:43 PM

Where is there information on number of bets and size of public action?

**scumfrog** · 01-12-11, 08:04 PM

It's the same scenario with PHX and Nets. The spread lines are kinda dangerous, bookmakers expect people to jump on favourites tonight. We'll see what comes out, at least i hope in a PHX win, with Lakers i don't know.

**madrabbit** · 01-12-11, 08:10 PM

if you bet on what the public does either way youre a ******* idiot. All this public bullshit its a ******* joke if you cant make your own decision you might as well go jerk off.

**suicidekings** · 01-12-11, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by lyon804

Sup buddie. Glad to see you back around. You offer great insight. How have you been?

I've been good. Thanks for asking. Unfortunately just too busy in the fall to put much time into this stuff, but making it a 2011 resolution to make time for it

Fortunately, it's like riding a bike.

**lyon804** · 01-12-11, 10:27 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

I've been good. Thanks for asking. Unfortunately just too busy in the fall to put much time into this stuff, but making it a 2011 resolution to make time for it

Fortunately, it's like riding a bike.

Awesome. Look forward to seeing you around.

**bonduforlife** · 01-13-11, 01:10 AM

Originally posted by demens

Like the 24 and 28 point "close" games they had this year?

That is sound logic, i say you should go all in.

Originally posted by iQon

Whatever happened to just capping games and going with what the numbers you believed in, Regardless of who everybody else likes? Now everyone here just says "I'm playing whoever gets the least action on the offshores"

Lakers have owned GS lately. @home @GS.

Public doesn't make the lines, they just play what they're given. Thinking that "last nights blowout" is swaying people is stupid. The Lakers were going to get all the action regardless of what happened recently.

Originally posted by madrabbit

if you bet on what the public does either way youre a ******* idiot. All this public bullshit its a ******* joke if you cant make your own decision you might as well go jerk off.

I got 2 words for ya
Suck It

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mwWPt7zoI8U&feature=related