Free Plays

[az bound]

Here is the premise of this thread:

FOR fun and conversation I am going to track the FREE plays posted from one of the common pay for play websites. My theory is that fading the free plays you can show a profit, especially on those plays where multiple cappers agree. I simply did a yahoo search for free service plays and I hit the jackpot. This site has about 25 cappers selling plays and most offer a daily free play. I am not going to list names or web addresses, although easy to figure out.....but the plays and the results. I will be tracking them against CLOSING lines and using -110 juice for record keeping. Why you might wonder....well most touts post bogus lines or buy pts etc.....and I am more interested in how I would do fading their plays vs WA lines rather than how they do with their bogus lines or lines not available any longer. I will be using scoresandodds closing line since they are a very fair representation of the WA lines.
I am putting 10 on each of these because worse case i expect to break even and lose a little juice. If 2 cappers are on a play it is a 2u play, etc.
Here are todays plays:

3 units
ILLINOIS ST L

2 UNITS EACH
RAPTORS L
PHILLY 76ERS W
CLEVELAND ST L
CAVS L



1UNIT EACH

VALPARAISO W
UNDER KNICKS W
ROCKETS L
OVER RAPTORS W
OVER BULLS W
NIAGRA L
NETS L
LAKERS L
CREIGHTON W

[az bound]

3u 0-1 -3.3
2u 1-3 -4.6
1u 5-4 +.6

total 6-8, -7.3u

[az bound]

Day 2

2 unit plays
76 ers L
under grizz/thunder L
over saints/seahawks W

1 unit plays
grizzlies L
bobcats W
nets L
pacers L
colorado W
arizona st L
virginia W
miami fla L
hofstra W
texas am W
georgia tech L
texas L

DAY 2
2U 1-2, -2.4
1U 5-7, -2.7

TOTAL THROUGH 2 DAYS

3u 0-1 -3.3
2u 2-5 -7.0
1u 10-11 -2.1

12-17, -12.4u

THROUGH 2 DAYS THESE ARE BETTER TO PLAY AND NOT FADE. GOING TO MONITOR AND SEE

[Bostongambler]

ok , thanks for the FREE play.

[az bound]

I am not ready to say these guys know what they are doing after just 2 days, but I will give credit where it is due. Hell, maybe they give their best plays out for free and not even they realize it. Here are the plays for Sunday:

3u
Valparasio

1u
Under Green Bay/Philly
Boston College CFB
Cleveland Cavs
Over Cavs
LAC
Over Heat
Kings
Hornets
Under Hornets
Knicks
South Florida
Umass
Maryland
Under Wichita St
Michigan

[Bostongambler]

Are these also FREE? ty sooooo much.

[az bound]

Are these also FREE? ty sooooo much.

if you would have read the post you would know the answer. I am always amazed how quick someone is to be a smart ass when they have not bothered to read the thread.

I will give you the cliff notes version since clearly reading is not fundamental for some:

these are fades of free plays from a pay for play tout site. I am just simply seeing how the plays perform over time. Likely do no better or worse than 50-50, but time will tell.

[az bound]

3u
Valparasio W

1u
Under Green Bay/Philly W
Boston College CFB W
Cleveland Cavs W
Over Cavs L
LAC W
Over Heat W
Kings W
Hornets W
Under Hornets W
Knicks L
South Florida L
Umass W
Maryland W
Under Wichita St W
Michigan W

Now this is more of what I expected
3u 1-0, +3
1u 12-3, + 8.7
total for day 3, 13-3, +11.7


TOTAL THROUGH 3 DAYS:
3U, 1-1, -.3
2U, 2-5, -7.0
1U, 22-14, +9.6

TOTAL
25 WINS
20 LOSSES
55.6%
+2.3 UNITS

[mart59a]

Wow! Just when you thought it was better to play the fades come through quite impressively.

[az bound]

There have been a few instances where the cappers were on opposite sides and I simply ignored those plays. Because of the small card we have a couple situations where there are opposite sides but lopsided...for example 3 to 1. I am going to subtract the difference and use the play. I will put numbers nexst to the plays for reference later if necessary.

Day 4 plays:

3 unit plays:
Elon W
Tenn Martin (4-1) W

2 Unit plays:
Marquette W

1 unit plays:
Memphis Grizz (2-1) L
Over Memphis Grizz L
Houston Rockets W
Chicago Bulls W
Over Chicago Bulls (2-1) L

[az bound]

Wow! Just when you thought it was better to play the fades come through quite impressively.

Yeah, small sample size either way...I am not surprised of the record through the weekend, but I thought I'd see the heavier played games worse and the single games about even. Should be interesting to see what happens.

[az bound]

Day 4, 5-3, +6.7

through 4 days:
3 unit plays 3-1, +5.7
2 unit plays 3-5, -5.0
1 unit plays 24-17, +8.3

total
30 wins
23 losses
56.6%
+9.0 units

[az bound]

Yesterday is the type of day I have been expecting....the more on one side the worse the result would be....unless you were fading! 3-0 fading the bigger plays and lost a little on the 1u plays. Hard for me to imagine 56.6% winners long term, but 53-54 seems possible. I'm still guessing the results will be good enough not to lose money, but need a lot more time to determine whether or not there can be profit. I see some plays I like and others seem like great fades. Going to keep my personal opinion out of it and just roll with what the system says.

Day 5:

All 1 unit plays today.
Spurs W
Suns L
Cavs L
Under Knicks/Blazers W
Over 76ers/Pacers W
Manhattan W
Auburn W
Over BYU/Utah W
Bowling Green L
Over BC/NC St L
N. Illiniois (2-1) W
UConn (2-1) W

[az bound]

Day 5
8 wins
4 losses
+3.6 units

Through 5 days

3u 3-1, +5.7
2u 3-5, -5.0
1u 32-21, +11.9

Total
38 wins
27 losses
58.5%
+12.6

[az bound]

Day 6

2u plays
Charlotte Bobcats
Florida State

1u plays
Milwaukee Bucks
Phx Suns
Indiana Pacers
LAC
Under LAC
Under Knicks/Jazz
Detroit Pistons
Louisville
Akron
Pitt
Creighton
VCU
Drake
SMU
Xavier

[az bound]

day 6

2u plays
charlotte bobcats w
florida state w

1u plays
milwaukee bucks l
phx suns w
indiana pacers w
lac w
under lac l
under knicks/jazz l
detroit pistons l
louisville l
akron l
pitt w
creighton l
vcu w
drake l
smu w
xavier w

day 6

9 wins
8 losses
+2.2.....hit both 2u plays

[az bound]

Through 6 days

3u 3-1, +5.7
2u 5-5, -1.0
1u 39-29, +10.1

Total
47 wins
35 losses
57.3%
+14.8

[az bound]

Day 7

2u plays
Washington Wizards
Oklahoma City
Minnesota CBB
Troy

1u plays
Loyola Marymount
New Mex St
Florida Int
San Diego
Utah St
Middle Tenn St
Over Minnesota CBB
Rhode Island
Drexel
ADD...forgot these 2
Miss St
Over Miss st

[az bound]

Day 7

2u plays
Washington Wizards L
Oklahoma City W
Minnesota CBB W
Troy W

1u plays
Loyola Marymount W
New Mex St W
Florida Int W
San Diego L
Utah St W
Middle Tenn St L
Over Minnesota CBB W
Rhode Island W
Drexel W
ADD...forgot these 2
Miss St W
Over Miss st L

Another great night
3-1. +3.8 on 2u plays
8-3, +4.7 on 1u plays

[az bound]

[COLOR=#000000 !important]Through 7 days

3u 3-1, +5.7
2u 8-6, +2.8
1u 47-32, +14.8

Total
58 wins
39 losses
59.8%
+23.3[/COLOR]
[COLOR=#000000 !important][/COLOR]

[az bound]

Day 8

3 u
Detroit CBB L

2u
Under LAC L
Over Utah Jazz W

1u
NBA
Charlotte W
LAC L
Utah W
Det W
Ind L
Port L
CBB
Rider (2-1) L
Valparasio W

3U 0-1
2U 1-1
1U 4-4

TOTAL DAY 8 5-6, -3.9

good luck

[az bound]

Through 8 days

3U 3-2 +2.4
2U 9-7 +2.6
1U 51-36 +14.4

63 WINS
45 LOSSES
58.3%

Through the first 100 games hitting 58% seems too good to be true, but going to keep track. Personally I am doubling my wager to 20$ per unit. I am confident I dont lose and worst case break even long term.

[az bound]

two early games....still waiting on a few to finalize

1u
Rutgers L
Duquesne W

adds

2u
MISSOURI W

1U
NBA
NEW ORLEANS W
OVER NEW ORLEANS L
WASH L
HOUS W
CBB
BC W
SETON HALL L
NORTHRIDGE W
FLA INT L
FRESNO ST L
SOUTH CAROLINA W
DAYTON W
RICE L
SO MISS W
FLA ST W
GEORGIA W

[az bound]

Day 9
2u 1-0
1u 10-7

through day 9

3u 3-2 +2.4
2u 10-7 +4.6
1u 61-43 +17.7

74 wins
52 losses
+24.7
58.7%

[az bound]

Today will be my last day posting these

i hope some of now see that there can be profit in fading. Small sample size i know, but well over 100 plays with nearly 60% winners. good luck with whatever you decide

2u
WRIGHT ST W
WEST VIRGINIA W
ST BONAVENTURE W
UNDER LAC W

1U
SPURS (2-1) W
NORTH CAROLINA L
AUBURN L

[az bound]

5-2, +6.8 DAY 10

Final reults:

3u 3-2 +2.4
2u 14-7 +12.6
1u 62-45 +16.5

79 wins
54 losses
+31.5
59.4%