Putting a little on the Sonics ML +3500. Lakers obviously still missing Pau and Bynum, and playing on the second night of a back-to back following a big win in Utah. LAL has a tendency to play down to the level of their competition and if Kobe shoots 8-24, the Lakers, heavily reliant on Kobe's scoring minus their two bigs in the post, can let Seattle hang around into the 2H.
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Worth a shot. Anything can happen. GL to you tonight.Comment -
no chanceComment -
Then I take it you'll be on the Lakers -5000. You think they win this game 98% of the time?Originally posted by ryanXL977Comment -
why would i bet 5k to win 100 dollars
i dont need 100 dollarsComment -
Because you said Seattle doesn't have a chance. If you think LAL wins more than 98% of the time, it's a good bet.Originally posted by ryanXL977Comment -
no bet laying -5000 is a good bet
are you retarded
i said seattle is not a good bet. they are the worst team in the west playing the best
how is that a good bet? why not throw your momey towards a homeless person instead
help somebodyComment -
That's the stupidest thing I've read in a long time. I'll let you figure out why, but considering the intelligence you've demonstrated in this thread, I don't think it will happen anytime soon.Originally posted by ryanXL977Comment -
hope you did not throw away cash on a free win for lalComment -
You're an idiot. You clearly shouldn't be gambling. Don't have time for morons like you.Originally posted by ryanXL977Comment -
i guess i am the idiot. you lost money on themComment -
Why you have to get so defensive? Chill out man.Originally posted by rjt721
We're here to help each other out, not call each other out.Comment -
What does that have to do with anything?Originally posted by ryanXL977
You're aware that a good bet doesn't always win, right?
What was an accurate ML for this game? How many times out of 100 does LAL win?Comment -
Some people can't be helped.Originally posted by The_KidComment -
lal wins 95 out of 100 home games vs this sea team, maybe moreComment -
Clearly you're not aware that a -5000 fave equates to a win percentage of slightly higher than 98%.Originally posted by ryanXL977
Conversely, +3500 results in a probability of 2.78%.
So, if you think LA wins this game 95% of the time it goes without saying Seattle +3500, with a win probability of 5% in your estimation, was a good bet.Comment -
RJT is correct in his logic....it was a good bet despite the slim chances.Comment -
yepp.. now say, before game time all of lakers starters got sick (food poisoning or what have u) and they can only suit up their 7 to 12 man. derz a very good chance ull hit ur +3500 innit???
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it wasnt a good bet
they lost by 25Comment -
It was a good bet when you say the Lakers win the same game 95% of the time...say you put $100 on the ML in all 100 games @ +3500 and you win 5 of them.
3500*5= 17,500-9500 (the money you lost on their 95 wins)
You end up with $8500 profit....you make profit even if the Lakers win 97 out of the 100 so in the long run it was a good bet even though it wasn't very probable for it to happen.Comment -
You still don't get it. The result is irrelevant.Originally posted by ryanXL977
You said Seattle wins 5% of the time, yet a play in which the Sonics only need to win at a clip exceeding 2.78% isn't "a good bet?"
Stop embarrassing yourself.Comment -
look, just bc i say they win 95% of the time doesnt mean they do. it was an awful bet. they had no chance. best team in the west vs worst, on the road
wheres the valueComment -
You are even more clueless than I initially thought.Comment -
yes
you are right
i am wrong
bet sea+3500 at lal everytime
see who is right and who is wrongComment -
lol at this banter!Comment -
So how often does Seattle win? Surely you're not saying LAL wins 100% of the time, in which case you'd be foolish to not play the Lakers -5000.Originally posted by ryanXL977
I just think it's hilarious you criticize the play, saying Seattle has "no chance," only to later concede you think they win 5% of the time. Even after this, you ask "where's the value?"
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look dude
i rarely rip anyones bets bc there is no such thing as a lock
but to bet a horrible team at +3500 is dumb
my opinion
so what
relaxComment -
I think what he's trying to say is, he'd rather avoid betting 5k to win 100 bucks, even if he believes there is enough value to warrant the bet. I don't think anyone really likes eating all that chalk. If I'm risking that much, I'd rather my return be a heck of a lot more.
I don't think there was anything wrong with taking a shot on the Sonics ML, if I had a gun to my head and had to pick either ML to bet on I'd pick Seattle in a heartbeat for a half unit or whatever.Comment -
I'll leave it at this: there has to be a line in which there's perceived value on any team, in this case being Seattle. That number is, at time, entirely subjective.
Good luck with your future plays.
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i understanbd your logic
i just dont see that the game of sea @ lal was anything more than it should have bee
no biggy dudeComment
