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I'm about 30 miles outside Wash, DC. If you're ever headed this way, put up a post (versus PM'ing), and I'll do the same for you.
BTW, would you mind sharing how you choose to go over/under, spread, or periods, and how you get your stats so quickly ?
Although I ended up tailing your bet, here's how I analyzed the Miami/Portland game -
1) I thought the -5 spread on Miami would be difficult to achieve since they played the previous night
2) I took an average of the last 10 Miami away games and came up with 103 in totals (Miami); I did the same thing with Portland (home) and came up with 98. 103 + 98 = 201. The over/under number to beat was 184.
3) Although I could be wrong, I got the impression that Portland's point totals per game were trending SLIGHTLY higher; cant remember about Miami.
I ended up tailing you because you had more historical data than me, and because you were humble enough to admit you used to overbet. Since I'm new to the forum, I'm obviously going to look at other handicapper's win rates, but I'm leary of those with giant egos.
Thanks again for Hornets/Nuggets pick
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I don't think you'll get the bookmaker I use in America but its bet365. They have stats on every game, including recent meetings, averages, trends etc. You can also recap each game like I did for my LA clippers pick. It stated that over their last 5 games they had been leading every game at half time by about 10 points!
In terms of over and unders though, that sounds like a good idea to average out over the last 10 games, do you take injuries into account too? Personally I prefer to average the last 5 games, being the most recent but a larger sample of 10 can be good too. If the average I get is around 10 below or over the line the bookies give, its a strong possibility of a play for me.
Ill keep posting as much data as I can when I make a pick if you want to tail again in future!
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Nothing really stands out tonight but I've had one pick:
Pick: Phoenix Suns +4.5 @ Denver Nuggets
Writeup
I've found an interesting trend as the main reason behind this pick.
When Denver have been the favourite in a game by 6 points or less, they are 0-5 SU and 0-5 ATS. These are two high scoring teams and Denver have struggled of late to score over 100 in a game. With a shock loss at home to Sacramento, I could see another upset here or at least a tight game.
Quite a few trends for this one but here goes:
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Phoenix is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games Denver is 4-9-2 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Denver is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix
Good luck!
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Pick: Dallas Mavericks +1 @ Indiana Pacers
Writeup
This is the first fixture that stood out for me tonight. Im not concerned that Dallas are missing a couple of key players tonight as Indiana are not the toughest of opponents and are coming off a b2b. The line here seems very low for Dallas, I thought it might be around +5 as the Mavericks are 11-3 ATS this season on the road. Dallas are 9-1 SU in their last 10 meetings with Indiana, averaging 103.1 per game whereas Indiana are averaging just 93.9. Add to this that Dallas are the third best field goal percentage team in the league and I think this one is a good bet.
Found another interesting stat on this game: when playing at home on a b2b, Indiana have lost their last 3 games SU against New York, Atlanta and Washington.
Good luck!
Last edited by Chris8989; 01-12-11, 12:55 PM.Comment -
You got any plays for today?Comment
Not so good on this pick with the game finishing on 196.
thanks for tailing!
