Fade away my brothers, fade away.

[ugabooga]

Giving this one last shot, wish me luck

I got my first one all wrong using small units and too many plays. It was relatively new (18-15 @ 55%) so hope no one minds yet another thread on here. From now on, full units only ($100) and no chasing. Might add a bit of research as well, which probably won't hurt

76ers @ New Orleans Under 188 (1 UNIT)

STATS:

O/U
76ers: 14-19 (8-11 away)
NOH: 10-24 (7-10 home)

Offense
76ers: 96.5 (95.5 away)
NOH: 93.9 (96.9 home)

Defense
76ers: 97.4 (101.1 away)
NOH: 92.1 (90.6 home)

Last time met
12/12/10
NOH 70 @ 76ers 88
O/U 188.5 (-30.5)

My score prediction
NOH 94 - 76ers 85

Against the top 10 defensive teams the 76ers average 87.7 as the away team and the Hornets are a 1.5 point better defensive team at home.

The Hornets have only given away 81 points in its last 2 games and only allow 76.8 goal attempts at home, whilst only putting up 77 shots themselves. That's only 154 shots and both are ranked in the bottom for 3pt made/attempted. They'd either have to shoot out of their skins, make a heck of alot of free throws or play an uncharacteristic uptempo game.

The last time the 76ers were on a 3-game overs streak, they played NO and the game went under by over 30 points which happened less than a month ago. They're yet to play 4 overs in a row so it would be a season first.

New Orleans are currently on a 2-game unders streak and the 4 other times they've had 2 in a row, they went on to 10, 4, 4 (and one ended on 2 games) unders streaks.

Well that's all folks, onto a 200+ point game tomorrow and half an hour's research down the drain

BOL.

[3-ball]

with you on this one! goodluck

[ugabooga]

with you on this one! goodluck

Thanks mate, hope it's not a case of Lakers 1H -5.5 like yesterday where half of sbr was on the play...cos we all know how that turned out

[3-ball]

congrats mate!

[ugabooga]

congrats mate!

Thanks mate, congrats to you too

76ers @ New Orleans Under 188 (1 UNIT)

Cash that.
Final score: NOH 84 - 76ers 77
Total: 161 haha

+0.91 units

[ugabooga]

Unders look like the way to go these days with games with the total set at 195 or more running at 2-12 since the new year. Perhaps a couple of sluggish teams or change of game plan. Whatever it is, i'll ride the wave while i can.

Raptors @ Chicago Under 198 (1 UNIT)

STATS:

O/U
Toronto: 17-16 (9-7 away)
Chicago: 11-21 (5-10 home)

Offense
Toronto: 100 (100 away)
Chicago: 99 (102 home)

Defense
Toronto: 104 (106 away)
Chicago: 94 (92 home)

Last time met
12/15/10
Bulls 110 @ Toronto 93
O/U 200.5 (+2.5)

My score prediction
Chicago 95 - Raptors 84

The stats don't exactly support the play until you look a little deeper.

Toronto's last 4 scores (with Bargnani out) have been 79, 105, 84, 85 @ an average of 88.25. The 79 and 84 were against Boston and Dallas who are top 10 defensive teams like Chicago. They've also only allowed their opponents to score an average of 94 points (10 below their season average) their last 3 so perhaps there's been a change of game plan.

Bargnani is due back but their coach has stated

"We have to find a way to get (Bargnani's) rhythm back and get him in. It may be short spurts. He's tried to maintain his conditioning through this, but it's nothing compared with games."

With their top scorer playing limited minutes and their leading assist/playmaker, Calderon unlikely, i can't see them scoring much more than 80.

In their last 10 games at home, Chicago have restricted their opponents to an average of 87 which includes games against LA, T'wolves, Houston and OKC, all strong offensive teams.

My only real worry would be Chicago scoring 110 and Toronto making up the rest. Doubtful i think (hope)

BOL all.

[3-ball]

goodluck again mate !

[ugabooga]

Cheers mate, anything that's caught your eye for tomorrow?

[3-ball]

still doing some research but probably going also with under in chicago game goodluck!

[3-ball]

what do you think on the under in miami game?

[baywatch]

Nice first up winner my friend

[EasyHustlin]

My only real worry would be Chicago scoring 110 and Toronto making up the rest.

Tough loss

[ugabooga]

still doing some research but probably going also with under in chicago game goodluck!

Damn i hope you didn't

Nice first up winner my friend

Thanks mate

Tough loss

Yeah that sucked big time. With 48 points to give in the last i still felt like i was every chance. With such a big lead i couldn't see there being a lot of points late in the quarter but 5 points in the last 17 seconds ruined that. I've seen players just dribble that time out before

[ugabooga]

Raptors @ Chicago Under 198 (1 UNIT)

Missed that.
Final score: Chicago 111 - Raptors 91
Total: 202

YTD: 1-1 (-0.09)

[3-ball]

well i just did bet on chicago underlooking forward to your next plays!! not everyday is a winning day

[ugabooga]

Yet another under

Lakers @ Phoenix Under 208.5 (1 UNIT)

O/U
Lakers: 14-20 (8-10 away)
Phoenix: 18-14 (8-7 home)

Not going into all the stats this time but post the most relevant ones in my mind.

Since Gortat called out the Suns defense 2 games ago (http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.c...-suns-defense/) there's been a huge change in their games. These games have only averaged 175 points (90.5 for/84.5 against) and have only allowed 40% shooting against. The o/u has gone under by an average 32 points in these 2 games with both games being set at around 207.

Their numbers for shots attempted and shots attempted against are also down as well as almost every other offensive stat. I can see a real change in their style of play and perhaps a few more games of inflated figures due to their early season numbers. So with the Lakers, i think this is a perfect spot to play the under.

The Lakers are 5-10 o/u in their last 15 and during that period have only covered 208.5 twice. In their last 10 road games they average 97.9 which is over 4 points less than their season average away from home while the Suns are a 6 point better defensive team at home.

Again, the only worry is LA come out and score 120 and the Suns make up the rest.

My score prediction:
Suns 93 - Lakers 103

BOL.

[3-ball]

on the other side of your pick, but best of luck mate

[NYSportsGuy210]

I took the OVER here too.

[3-ball]

nice win mate

[ugabooga]

on the other side of your pick, but best of luck mate

I took the OVER here too.

nice win mate

Thanks fellas, bad luck with that one. Was probably line ball going into the last quarter with 56 needed especially if it was close (which it was). Couldn't believe how well they were shooting from 3pt land early.... I thought i was done for sure.

[ugabooga]

Lakers @ Phoenix Under 208.5 (1 UNIT)

My score prediction:
Suns 93 - Lakers 103

Cash that.
Final score: Suns 95 - Lakers 99
Total: 194

Pretty close!

YTD: 2-1 (+0.82 units)

[baywatch]

Good Job! nice pick

[ugabooga]

Good Job! nice pick

Cheers



Was going to hold off on making a play but have found a couple of decent stats so am yet again going an under with a strong offensive team involved.

Nuggets @ Kings Under 209 (1 Unit)

O/U
Denver: 15-18-1 (5-11 away)
Sacramento: 14-18 (10-10 home)

These teams are 1-4 o/u in their last 5 meetings which includes an OT or they'd be 0-5. The line continues to be set way too high in these games including the most recent one on new years day which went under by 18.5 points.

This time the Nuggets are on the road where they average 6 points less in offense and where the Kings are a 5 point better defensive team at home. I think the line should've been set at around 204/5, especially if it was 208.5 in Denver.

Anyway, like always the only worry would be Denver scoring big, especially after their loss to the Clips.

BOL all.

[3-ball]

goodluck mate

[scarface2738]

good luck my man

[ugabooga]

Thanks fellas. The line has come into 206.5 so that's got to be a good thing...i think

[ugabooga]

Forgot to add my score prediction. Going with Denver 100 - Kings 97.

Cheers.

[ugabooga]

Forgot to add my score prediction. Going with Denver 100 - Kings 97.

Cheers.

After the 3rd quarter that is

Looks like Denver/Sac are going well over so 2-2 after tonight. I'll post my plays for tomorrow early as I won't have a chance to post them any other time.

NY @ Phoenix Under 218 (1 UNIT)


O/U
Knicks: 17-16-1 (8-10 away)
Phoenix: 18-15 (8-8 home)

Again, riding the Phoenix unders train. Since Gortat called out their defense, they are now 0-3 o/u. Going under by 40.5, 24 and 12.5 at an average of 25.67ppg. Those games the line was around 207, this time we get an extra 10 points to play with!

At home, the Suns are a 6 point better defensive team while NY are a little worse off offensively on the road.

My score prediction:
NY 105 - Suns 103

[ugabooga]

San Antonia Spurs -6 @ Indiana (1 UNIT)


ATS
Spurs: 21-13-1 (9-4-1 away)
Pacers: 14-16-2 (8-8-1 home)

Running with the law of averages here. The Spurs haven't lost 2 in a row all year so I think this gets real ugly for Indiana. Each time they have lost, they've followed up with wins of 9, 14, 6 and 14 at an average of almost 11. So after 2 losses i don't think they take the pedal off the metal here and no backdoor cover.

The Pacers are also 1-3 ats with 3 or more days break and when they've lost, they've lost by more than 6 points 5-12-1 which includes 11 losses by double digits.

My score prediction:
Spurs 108 - Pacers 94

[ugabooga]

Nuggets @ Kings Under 209 (1 Unit)

Way off there.
Final score: Denver 102 - Sacramento 122
Total 224 (+15)

YTD: 2-2 (-0.18 units)

[ugabooga]

Last play.

Chicago +1 @ Philly (1 UNIT)

Has trap written all over it but the last 3 times these teams have played, the Bulls have won by 46, 14 and 32 which is good enough reason to make the play for me. The 4th last time however the 6ers won in OT.

My only real concern is Philly at home are a 4 point better offensively and 9 point better defensively team, whereas Chicago are a 5 point worse offensively and 5 point worse defensively team on the road. Quite a difference imo.

Nevertheless, their last 3 games, as well as a Chicago loss to 10-25 New Jersey are reason enough to justify this play. As well as Philly being without Iguodala who averaged 19 points in their last 4 games.

BOL all, hopefully get a couple back

[ugabooga]

NY @ Phoenix Under 218 (1 UNIT)
San Antonia Spurs -6 @ Indiana (1 UNIT)
Chicago +1 @ Philly (1 UNIT)

Line movements-
NY / Phx 219.5
Spurs -4.5
Bulls -1

FML

[vyomguy]

stay away from bulls game...looks like a friday fix.

[ugabooga]

Yeah agree was very fishy from the start. It was begging for money on Chicago, which by the looks of it, it got but i've already put it on, and at +1 i couldn't resist. Hopefully it's a double fix

[baywatch]

Goodluck today uga