Pace of the game - what does it tell us?

[Arnold]

I have this NBA's season score data of each quarter and wondered what are the chances of going over/under based on the pace of the game, which is calculated:

Total score so far * (4 / quarters played)

I don't know about others, but I always check the pace of the game to see how my over/under pick is doing. So here is the data:

After 1st quarter
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If the pace is OVER, the over record is 333-158 (67.8%)
If the pace is UNDER, the under record is 326-153 (68.1%)

After 2nd quarter
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If the pace is OVER, the over record is 369-115 (76.2%)
If the pace is UNDER, the under record is 368-115 (76.2%)

After 3rd quarter
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If the pace is OVER, the over record is 391-67 (85.4%)
If the pace is UNDER, the under record is 418-99 (80.6%)


So, the 1st quarter is pretty crucial to the outcome of game's over/under result. The results for over and under are very symmetrical except for the 3rd quarter. Well, that's because about 4% of the games go into overtime. I checked 3rd quarter for games that ended in regulation and for both over and under it came out to be around 84%.

[Arnold]

ATS pace:

1st quarter: 60%
2nd quarter: 70%
3rd quarter: 80%

[vassman86]

interesting results, i'll keep them in mind =D thanks

[vassman86]

what's ATS btw?? and i might as well ask, what is PK also? lol i'm new to this

[austintx05]

Against The Spread

Pick

[Arnold]

SU pace (Visitor/Home):

1st quarter: 56.7% / 72.4%
2nd quarter: 64.3% / 78.3%
3rd quarter: 78.3% / 84.5%
4th quarter (OT): 27-26

The favorite team in OT wins: 30-23 (56.6%)

[mundane]

im pretty noob as well... so this analysis would only help if u bet by quarters or the 2nd half of the game? i guess for hedging also? :P

[Arnold]

It will help your confidence during the games

I don't bet quarters/halfs, so I don't know how it can help in these bets.