One play a day! Let's hope this doesn't turn into a fade thread..

[STC]

My last thread ended up all over the place so hope no one minds me making a new one. For the record it ended YTD: 24-20-2 (+5.48 units) @ 55%. Not fantastic but not terrible either. I made the mistake of making too many plays and betting on leans without a great deal of certainty/research so from now on, i'll bet my best play and that's it.

I don't expect anyone to tail me but i do tend to decide my bets before reading anyone else's so my picks from time to time may go against the masses so i'll welcome any discussion, tips, suggestions, etc.

Cheers

[STC]

12/21

For my first play i'll be taking Dallas +5 @ Orlando. Very puzzling to me that they're going in as underdogs as the Magic have only won 1 of their last 8 and still haven't proven a thing yet but still manage to get the public's money. I'd have taken Dallas -3 or -4 so this in my opinion is either a trap or money for jam.

Dallas are 8-0 ATS when they've gone in as underdogs and 7-1 SU (as underdogs!). I was very tempted to take the ML here but if by some chance Orlando do show up i like the 5 points. Of their 5 losses this year Dallas has only lost by more than this number once (plus another loss by 5 pts to push).

Away from home Dallas are 9-1 ATS and Orlando are 6-7 at home. Orlando have also failed to cover their last 3 at home against Philly, Atlanta and Detroit!

I just can't see how the Mavs don't cover here

1U - Dallas +5 @ Orlando

BOL all.

[STC]

12/21
1U - Dallas +5 @ Orlando

Excellent!

Money line would've been nice but happy to start this up with a W

[Avon Barksdale]

Good pick, keep it up.

[STC]

Good pick, keep it up.

Thanks!
12/22

After tossing up between a few leans i've decided to run with the Houston v Clippers game. Initially i was leaning Houston -1, then liked the under 207 but have now decided to go back to my first thought of the Rockets -1.

The Rockets have covered the spread the last 7 games when they've gone in as favorite and have won 11 of the last 13 at the Staples Center against LAC (at an average of 12 points!). After starting the season with 3-11, they've brought it back to 13-15 (10-4 since that start).

The Clippers haven't won 4 in a row since 2009 and although they've got a monster in Griffin putting up huge numbers, I think they go down here. I don't want to jinx my pick because if the good Clippers rock up my play's in trouble but I really like the Rockets these days

1U - Rockets -1 @ LAC

BOL all.

[STC]

12/22

1U - Rockets -1 @ LAC

Winner winner, chicken dinner

After seeing the Bulls get up, Knicks win and Utah go over i wasn't feeling especially good about this play. I figured if all those leans got up this one was sure to miss. In the end they won pretty easily apart from a terrifying last qtr but got there in the end. The game also fell well below the unders as predicted

Merry xmas to you all, looks like we all had a good day!

YTD: 2-0 (+1.78 units)

[STC]

12/23

Like my first play i'm unsure why the money is on Orlando again and am taking the Spurs +3. Again i would've taken the Spurs -2 or -3 so this IMO is a gift. I don't think the Magic are far from clicking but they'd need to be firing at all cylinders to beat SAS.

Away from home the Spurs are 9-1 SU (7-2-1 ATS). They've only been non-favorites 4 times this year and have come away with the W each and every time...that at an average of 10 points a win! Orlando haven't covered in their last 4 games at home and are 2-8 ATS in their last 10

1U - Spurs +3 @ Orlando

BOL all.

[STC]

I know it's only meant to be one play a day but i'm gonna take Miami -5 @ Phoenix. Couple of reasons, the main one being i finished work early and have a chance to watch it

The second one, Miami cover well away and Phoenix don't at home. Wade out hurts but it's every possibility they set up better with it just being the LBJ show...and Miami have had a few quiet nights so they're due to explode!

Rushed pick but it's Xmas so who cares

1U - Miami -5 @ Phoenix

GL all.

[STC]

1U - Spurs +3 @ Orlando
1U - Miami -5 @ Phoenix

1-1 (-0.09 units)
YTD: 3-1 (+1.69 units)

Lebron had 36 pts, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals

[STC]

12/25

Going to tail SJ on this one, his 2nd biggest play of the year so he's relatively confident. Not convinced about Orlando yet and some of the guys thought SAS was due for a let-down. Although I didn't see it coming

This will be the 3rd time fading Orlando in 4 plays, so far 1-1 but after this i think i'll stay away and hope they start up a Miami-like run and jump on board.

1U - Boston +2 @ Orlando

BOL and Merry Xmas all

[STC]

Adding another play which pretty much means again i'm not sticking to my one play a day but oh well

I'm takingLakers -1 1st quarter. This season Miami have been slow starters averaging 22.2 points away from home whereas LA average 28.7 at home. Their 1st quarter average margins are +6.5 for LA and -0.7 for Miami as the away team.

I can see LA coming out and really making a statement after their big loss to Milwaukee and putting a show on for their home crowd.

1U - Lakers -1 1st quarter