Teasing NBA point spreads.. yay or ney?

**doublej95** · 12-13-10, 04:18 PM

I would not tease the Hornets. When the Heat win they fricking win, margin for the year is 9.68 and last 10 margin is 14.60. Margin last ten for the Hornets is -4 points. The Hornets are not as good as they was billed to be.

**Deep_Rest** · 12-13-10, 04:33 PM

Teasers as a general principle are pretty weak. The higher the point-spread, the weaker the tease becomes. Even though teasing is generally a sucker bet, to maximize value, you need to tease important numbers. In a typical 4-point teaser, take something like X -4.5 and Y -7. You would basically be taking X moneyline, and Y -3 which has some value since you're shaving Y down to a 1-possession game which is pretty important. Now compare that to teasing 4 points on a 13-point spread...the difference between 9 and 13 points isn't as important. I have a football background so I look for numbers like +1.5-2.5 in NFL lines since they tease to 7.5-8.5 which just covers a TD (wong-teasers)...I'm sure there's a general similarity for NBA but I wouldn't mess around with it. Just bet SU! Slow and steady :P

**Nuggz** · 12-13-10, 04:39 PM

I like doing 3-team 8pt teasers in the NBA. If you spend the time to determine which matchups have a seemingly consistent range of margin of victory you can cross some important numbers (Like what Deep_Rest was saying about the NFL). If you pick them smart than playing it at -120 can be well worth it imo.

**squid44** · 12-13-10, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by Deep_Rest

Teasers as a general principle are pretty weak. The higher the point-spread, the weaker the tease becomes. Even though teasing is generally a sucker bet, to maximize value, you need to tease important numbers. In a typical 4-point teaser, take something like X -4.5 and Y -7. You would basically be taking X moneyline, and Y -3 which has some value since you're shaving Y down to a 1-possession game which is pretty important. Now compare that to teasing 4 points on a 13-point spread...the difference between 9 and 13 points isn't as important. I have a football background so I look for numbers like +1.5-2.5 in NFL lines since they tease to 7.5-8.5 which just covers a TD (wong-teasers)...I'm sure there's a general similarity for NBA but I wouldn't mess around with it. Just bet SU! Slow and steady :P

This is the kind of info I was looking for! I totally agree as well- you make a valid point by teasing to important numbers in the NFL and I agree that NBA should be no different. You're right about sucker bets though- some of those teasers look so great on paper, like teasing cincinati to 14.5 and greenbay down to -1 yesterday.. and look how that turned out! But thanks for the info and good luck!