Stat-wise NBA plays for Saturday (56.36% ATS YTD +46.00 units)

[billstat]

My documented record and full scoring table for every NBA game can be found at "bill's stat-wise blog"

*Charlotte Bobcats (+7.5)

Holy great line. This line is going crazy in the few hours it has been out. It opened at +6 and is up to +8 on some books. I love it. The betting public is absolutely nuts to be on the Celtics to the tune of 88%. Boston is starting Semih Erden at center because of their injury woes.. and Vegas is really going to give the Bobcats 8 points at home? It is worth noting that this veteran Celtics team is playing their 3rd game in 4 days, that’s tough on old legs.

Charlotte will hang at home in a low-scoring affair, I would not be shocked to see a Bobcats win here.

[raiders510]

i actually like this play and analysis....but i am hoping for the celtics to pull through with a win..that line will probably close at 8

[billstat]

*Utah Jazz (+6)

Yes, the Jazz lost to the Mavs at home by 12 points, but the score doesn’t tell the whole story. The Jazz led the game by 7 points at one time and Deron Williams had an abysmal 4-13 night from the field. The Mavs shot 13% better than the Jazz from the field, a very difficult thing to do twice in as many meetings.

Things that the Jazz did well against the Mavs, and can duplicate:


*A (12/3) offensive rebounding advantage. Rebounding is a discipline that takes more will than skill, if a team has a distinct rebounding edge over another team it tends to re-occur in future match-ups.

*A (30/11) free throw attempt advantage. The Mavs are in the bottom-10 of the NBA with respect to free throw attempts per field goal attempt. Their style of offense doesn’t draw a lot of fouls, they are jump-shooters.

I just locked this play in at +6. Whether the Jazz pull it off or not, it is the right side, and +EV in the long run.